Your search found 11 records
1 Tilmant, A.; Fortemps, P.; Vanclooster, M. 2002. Effect of averaging operators in fuzzy optimization of reservoir operation. Water Resources Management, 16(1):1-22.
Reservoir operation ; Decision making ; Decision support tools ; Models ; Stochastic processes ; Simulation ; Water storage ; Hydroelectric schemes / Brazil / Uruguay River Basin
(Location: IWMI-HQ Call no: PER Record No: H030343)
2 Getnet, Kindie; Haileslasseie, Amare; Dessalegne, Y.; Hagos, Fitsum; Gebregziabher, Gebrehaweria. 2016. On the profitability of irrigated fodder production: comparative evidence from smallholders in Koga irrigation scheme, Ethiopia. Animal Production Science, 57(9):1962-1974. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1071/AN15651]
Irrigation schemes ; Irrigated farming ; Farm income ; Profitability ; Investment ; Smallholders ; Stochastic processes ; Livestock ; Risk management ; Grasslands ; Chloris gayana ; Crop production ; Feed crops ; Onions ; Tomatoes ; Wheat ; Barley / Ethiopia / Koga Irrigation Scheme
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047709)
Irrigated fodder production can be vitalised as a useful strategy to sustainably intensify subsistence livestock production owned and managed by smallholders and to diversify farm income through linkages to commercial livestock systems. However, uncertainty about the production and market environment of such a non-traditional commodity can be a major hindrance against commercialisation and scaling out of irrigated fodder production. This makes ex-ante analysis of profit portfolio and its determinants necessary in order to improve farmers’ investment and risk management decisions. Using a stochastic approach to farm profit analysis to account for business uncertainty, this paper simulated and compared the level and distribution of profit that smallholders in Koga irrigation scheme (Ethiopia) can generate from irrigated Rhodes grass seed and from traditional irrigated crops. The finding shows the absolute and comparative profitability of irrigated Rhodes grass seed. Though 0.19 times less profitable than irrigated onion, irrigated Rhodes grass seed is 4 times, 1.27 times, and 1.25 times more profitable than irrigated barley, irrigated wheat, and irrigated tomato, respectively. Profit from the commodity is robust to adverse business conditions such as yield reduction, cost increase, and price reduction, assuring optimism about positive financial returns from investments to expand production. Long-term business viability can be improved and farm income further stabilised through interventions targeted at fodder agronomy to enhance crop yield and at value chain development to improve market linkages and output price.
3 Halder, D.; Panda, R. K.; Srivastava, R. K.; Kheroar, S.; Singh, S. P. 2016. Stochastic analysis of rainfall and its application in appropriate planning and management for Eastern India agriculture. Water Policy, 18:1155-1173.
Agricultural planning ; Stochastic processes ; Rain ; Water resources ; Water management ; Rainwater ; Water harvesting ; Monsoon climate ; Supplemental irrigation ; Dry spells ; Crop management / eastern India
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047932)
Rainfall analysis is essential for agricultural crop planning and water resources management, especially under water scarcity conditions. The 36 years (1977–2013) of rainfall data for Kharagpur were analyzed for characterization of different seasonal events. The Weibull's formula predicted the probability of mean onset on 23rd standard meteorological weeks (SMW) (3rd–9th June) and withdrawal on 43rd SMW (21st–27th October). There was 80–83% probability of a wet week [P(W)] occurring within 25th–35th SMW. The first order Markov chain process shows the conditional probability of one wet week preceded by another wet week [P(W/W)] varied between 0 and 86%; whereas, dry week preceded by another dry week [P(D/D)] varied in the range of 70 to 100%. The stochastic analysis of successive wet or dry weeks formulates the adaptation strategies to avoid the possible effect of wet or dry spell during cropping seasons. The wet spell analysis suggests rainwater harvesting to control soil erosion and maximization of water use efficiency. The probability of getting consecutive wet [P(W/W)] and dry days [P(D/D)] were varied in the range of 40%–70% and 50%–90%, respectively. The probability of getting different magnitude of rainfall (10 to 40 mm) during the monsoon weeks (25th–39th week) were found to be more than 50% probability level, which suggest for harvesting of excess runoff water for future supplemental irrigation.
4 Kuppannan, Palanisami; Ramarao, R. C.; Samiappan, S.; Malik, Ravinder Paul Singh. 2017. Estimating technical and irrigation water productivities in rice production in Tamil Nadu, India. Irrigation and Drainage, 66(2):163-172. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2099]
Irrigation water ; Water productivity ; Technological changes ; Measurement ; Agricultural production ; Rice ; Crop yield ; Water use ; Water management ; Tank irrigation ; Farmers ; Socioeconomic environment ; Models ; Stochastic processes / India / Tamil Nadu / Madurai / Sivaganga / Ramnad / Virudhunagar
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048131)
(0.15 MB)
The overall measure of farm-level technical efficiency is generally used to derive recommendations for the use of individual inputs. In this paper, joint estimation is made of technical and individual input-use (e.g. irrigation water productivity) efficiencies. This indicates that overall technical efficiency is not an indication of the efficiency level of all the individual inputs used. This is because the efficiency of individual inputs may vary and suggests that greater effort should be made to improve such efficiencies in comparison with overall technical efficiency. The model is applied to rice production in four tank-irrigated districts in Tamil Nadu, India, which is one of the most important tank-irrigated areas in India. The average technical efficiency is 62.8%, which indicates that in order to achieve the present level of production, 62.8% of the current level of input resources is sufficient. Average irrigation water productivity is estimated at ~34%, indicating that current output levels could be achieved with 66% less irrigation water. These findings also suggest the need for improvements in crop and water productivity. Thus, the paper makes a contribution in the form of a methodology development for possible adoption in future irrigation water productivity studies.
5 Degefu, D. M.; He, W.; Zhao, J. H. 2017. Transboundary water allocation under water scarce and uncertain conditions: a stochastic bankruptcy approach. Water Policy, 19(3):479-495. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2016.031]
International waters ; Water allocation ; Water scarcity ; Uncertainty ; Water demand ; International cooperation ; Water availability ; Forecasting ; Stochastic processes ; Bankruptcy ; River basins ; Riparian zones ; Case studies / Africa / Nile River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048183)
(0.32 MB)
Designing a feasible and stable water sharing mechanism for transboundary river basins is a big challenge. The stochastic and uncertain characteristics of water flow in these rivers is among the main reasons which make the formation of cooperative coalitions with feasible water allocations and self-enforceable allocation agreements difficult. When the water in these river basins is scarce the task becomes even more challenging. This article focuses on the application of stochastic game theoretic extension of the bankruptcy concept to transboundary water resource sharing under water scarce and uncertain conditions. Among the water allocation vectors obtained from stochastic bankruptcy rules only the ones from the stochastic constrained equal awards rule were self-enforcing under uncertainty. Furthermore, the authors also proposed an allocation rule that can be used under a stochastic setting. The proposed rule provides water allocations that are self-enforcing in the absence of uncertainty. Generally, the application of the stochastic bankruptcy approach could be a source of important strategic information which can serve for the sustainable sharing and management of these vital sources of fresh water, particularly during water scarcity.
6 Padikkal, S.; Sumam, K. S.; Sajikumar, N. 2018. Decision making tool for sustainable water sharing. Water Resources Management, 32(14):4707-4723. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2079-1]
Water resources ; Sustainability ; Cooperation ; Decision making ; Climate change ; Rainfall-runoff relationships ; Models ; Stochastic processes ; Forecasting ; Catchment areas ; Corporate culture / India / Kerala / Tamil Nadu / Parambikulam Sub Catchment
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048900)
(1.25 MB)
This paper explores the possibility of using a calibrated rainfall-runoff model as a decision-making tool in sustainable water sharing. Designing institutional arrangements for runoff sharing process in the case of a sub-catchment spread across geopolitical boundary is challenging. For the water sharing arrangement to be sustainable, it must be founded on realistic runoff predictions. The climate uncertainties make the water sharing process more complex and complicated. This context warrants a decision-making tool for helping the water sharing policy makers and its managers in taking a decision. In this study, a decision-making tool for sharing the waters of Parambikulam sub-catchment in Southern Peninsular India is developed. RRL (Rainfall-Runoff Library), RAP (River Analysis Package) and SCL (Stochastic Climate Library) of eWater toolkit are used for developing this tool. In the decision making, it also incorporates the runoff change prediction portrayed in India’s second national communication to UNFCC. The existing institutional arrangement for water sharing of this sub-catchment is revisited in the light of findings of this study. Paper is concluded by explaining how it is useful in synthesizing a range of options on designing a new water sharing paradigm for this sub-catchment.
7 Sanabria, S.; Torres, J. 2020. Water price: environment sustainability and resource cost. Water, 12(11):3176. (Special issue: Water Economics and Water Distribution Management) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113176]
Water pricing ; Environmental sustainability ; Water management ; Water supply ; Tariffs ; Water use ; Economic value ; Water deficit ; Water scarcity ; Water availability ; Cost recovery ; Stochastic processes ; Simulation models
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050099)
(0.44 MB) (448 KB)
The determination of a price for water is an open discussion among related players, directly or indirectly, in water management. In the context of the recovery of water service costs, as referred to in Article 9 of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD), legislation applicable in all member countries of the European Union, the total water cost is broken down into three blocks; financial, environmental, and resource. It is the last component that generates the most uncertainty both in its conceptualization and in its valuation. The need to establish a pricing system for water (water tariff) implies that the different concepts that make it up are correctly delimited. The main goal of this paper is to propose a first approximation to a new theoretical framework to establish a relationship between environmental sustainability and the valuation of the resource cost—given that current water consumption can provoke future water availability difficulties, making it a scarce commodity that resource cost must be correctly delimited. Taking into account the prospective nature of environmental sustainability, the measure of its value should be based on the use of stochastic models that reflect the associated uncertainty.
8 Kimwatu, D. M.; Mundia, C. N.; Makokha, G. O. 2021. Monitoring environmental water stress in the Upper Ewaso Ngiro River Basin, Kenya. Journal of Arid Environments, 191:104533. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2021.104533]
Water stress ; Environmental factors ; Drought ; Monitoring ; River basins ; Ecosystems ; Meteorological factors ; Land use ; Land cover ; Evapotranspiration ; Precipitation ; Vegetation ; Infiltration ; Stochastic processes ; Socioeconomic aspects / Kenya / Upper Ewaso Ngiro River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050476)
(14.90 MB)
This study provides a new methodology for simulating environmental water stress index (EWSI) that addresses environmental droughts' stochastic nature at regional and local scales. The current research used a case study of the Upper Ewaso Ngiro river basin in Kenya that possesses regional disparities attributed to climatic, biophysical, and anthropogenic variables. A stochastic modelling approach that ensembled 4D Euclidean feature space algorithm, least-squares adjustment, and iterations integrated the four environmental droughts indicators (meteorological, agricultural, socio-economic, and hydrological) into a single multivariate index called EWSI. The correlation between the simulated EWSI and initial reconnaissance drought index ) produced a correlation coefficient (r) of -0.93 and a p-value < 0.02. The correlation between EWSI and river discharge had a correlation coefficient of -0.89 and a p-value < 0.02. The assessment of severity revealed that 67–100% of the basin exhibited moderate to extreme environmental water stresses conditions between 1986 and 2018.
9 Erfani, T.; Harou, J. J. 2021. Adaptive water resource planning using decision-rules. Advances in Water Resources, 154:103961. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2021.103961]
Water resources ; Planning ; Decision making ; Water supply ; Water demand ; Infrastructure ; Stochastic processes ; Models ; Uncertainty
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050633)
(0.65 MB)
Dealing with uncertainty in water resource planning is problematic because insufficient or underused infrastructure can have social and environmental costs. Multistage stochastic optimisation provides a mechanism to deal with this challenge in water supply capacity expansion planning. However, for real systems it can be mathematically hard and computationally expensive. The ‘Decision-rule’ formulation represents an attempt to remedy this by approximating the multistage problem where decisions at each stage are a function of the uncertainty and the state of the system. We introduce a family of rules to show how they approximate the multistage problem and investigate the implications of the approximation for adaptive water resources planning.
10 Mooney, D. F.; Hoag, D. L. K.; Rasul, Z. I.; Gao, S. 2022. More risk, more money: when are payments for water savings from limited irrigation profitable for farmers? Water Resources and Economics, 40:100212. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2022.100212]
Water conservation ; Payment ; Deficit irrigation ; Water sharing ; Irrigation scheduling ; Sprinkler irrigation ; Subsurface irrigation ; Risk management ; Stochastic processes ; Soil moisture ; Soil water ; Farmers / United States of America / Colorado
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051529)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212428422000196/pdfft?md5=92714af7c6d18767e576325347ac6603&pid=1-s2.0-S2212428422000196-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051529.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051529.pdf
(1.45 MB) (1.45 MB)
As farmers in semiarid climates seek new ways of adding value to their operations, those with irrigation water rights are increasingly receptive to payments, or credits, for water sharing. Yet, past research on the economic feasibility of limited irrigation strategies for consumptive use (CU) savings seldom considers production risk. Using stochastic dominance, we compare the effect of three limited irrigation practices—deficit irrigation, root zone drying, and early crop maturity—on the returns to corn production for sprinkler and subsurface technology. Field-level simulations show that the practices reduce returns and increase risk, but credits for CU savings could make them economically viable for farmers. Larger credits (more money) incentivize limited irrigation at greater levels (less yield and more risk), but fully compensating farmers for risk-bearing will be costly. With sprinkler technology, root zone drying becomes risk-efficient at lower credit values than deficit irrigation. Deficit irrigation along with root zone drying become risk-efficient at the lowest credit values for subsurface technology. Thus, risk aversion could explain why some farmers choose not to share water even when credits are large enough, on average, to compensate for differences in expected returns. Improved knowledge about the profitability and risk of limited irrigation practices can increase the joint sustainability of irrigated agriculture and other societal water uses.
11 Englezos, N.; Kartala, X.; Koundouri, P.; Tsionas, M.; Alamanos, A. 2023. A novel hydroeconomic - econometric approach for integrated transboundary water management under uncertainty. Environmental and Resource Economics, 84(4):975-1030. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00744-4]
Transboundary waters ; Water management ; Water resources ; Econometrics ; Economic aspects ; Hydrology ; Uncertainty ; Climate change ; Water availability ; Stochastic processes ; River basins ; Water allocation ; Water power ; Water supply ; Water extraction ; Water demand ; Water use / Ethiopia / Kenya / Omo River / Lake Turkana
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051798)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10640-022-00744-4.pdf?pdf=button
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051798.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051798.pdf
(4.20 MB) (4.20 MB)
The optimal management of scarce transboundary water resources among competitive users is expected to be challenged by the effects of climate change on water availability. The multiple economic and social implications, including conflicts between neighbouring countries, as well as competitive sectors within each country are difficult to estimate and predict, to inform policy-making. In this paper, this problem is approached as a stochastic multistage dynamic game: we develop and apply a novel framework for assessing and evaluating different international strategies regarding transboundary water resources use, under conditions of hydrological uncertainty. The Omo-Turkana transboundary basin in Africa is used as a case study application, since it increasingly faces the above challenges, including the international tension between Kenya and Ethiopia and each individual country’s multi-sectoral competition for water use. The mathematical framework combines a hydro-economic model (water balance, water costs and benefits), and an econometric model (production functions and water demand curves) which are tested under cooperative and non-cooperative conditions (Stackelberg “leader–follower” game). The results show the cross-country and cross-sectoral water use—economic trade-offs, the future water availability for every game case, the sector-specific production function estimations (including residential, agriculture, energy, mining, tourism sectors), with nonparametric treatment, allowing for technical inefficiency in production and autocorrelated Total Factor Productivity, providing thus a more realistic simulation. Cooperation between the two countries is the most beneficial case for future water availability and economic growth. The study presents a replicable, sophisticated modelling framework, for holistic transboundary water management.
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