Your search found 21 records
1 Kuppannan, Palanisami; Das, A. 2013. Water management options in the hill regions of Uttarakhand [India]. In Palanisami, Kuppannan; Sharda, V. N.; Singh, D. V. (Eds.). Water management in the hill regions: evidence from field studies. [Outcome of the IWMI and ICAR Workshop organized by IWMI-TATA Water Policy Research Program]. New Delhi, India: Bloomsbury Publishing India. pp.72-94.
Highlands ; Water management ; Water resources ; Climatic zones ; Rain ; Drainage ; Agricultural production ; Yield gap ; Irrigated land ; Irrigation systems ; Supplemental irrigation ; Microirrigation ; Legal aspects ; Economic aspects ; Costs ; Research programmes / India / Uttarakhand
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 333.91 G635 PAL Record No: H045729)
(1.36 MB)
2 Sebastian, K. (Ed.) 2014. Atlas of African agriculture research and development: revealing agriculture's place in Africa. Washington, DC, USA: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 90p. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896298460]
Maps ; Agricultural research ; Farming systems ; Farmland ; Crops ; Maize ; Water use ; Agroecology ; Climatic zones ; Rain ; Arid zones ; Land use ; Soil fertility ; Public health ; Nutrition ; Livestock ; Pastures ; Virtual water ; Poverty ; Investment ; Markets / Africa
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 338.1096 G100 SEB Record No: H046661)
http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/atlasafricanag_all.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H046661.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H046661.pdf
(21.66 MB) (21.6 MB)
3 Muthuwatta, Lal; Liyanage, P. K. N. C. 2013. Impact of rainfall change on the agro-ecological regions of Sri Lanka. In Gunasena, H. P. M.; Gunathilake, H. A. J.; Everard, J. M. D. T.; Ranasinghe, C. S.; Nainanayake, A. D. (Eds.). Proceedings of the International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations for Food and Environment Security on Sustaining Agriculture Under Changing Climate. Colombo, Sri Lanka, 30-31 July 2013. Lunuwila, Sri Lanka: Coconut Research Institute; Colombo, Sri Lanka: Ministry of Environment and Renewable Energy; New Delhi, India: World Agroforestry Center Regional Office. pp.59-66.
Climate change ; Climatic zones ; Agroecology ; Rain ; Arid zones ; Meteorological stations ; Temperature ; Evapotranspiration / Sri Lanka
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H046672)
(6.87 MB)
Changes in future rainfall distribution for the agro-ecological regions of Sri Lanka were analyzed. The baseline period to compare future predictions was taken as 1970 to 2000. Downscaled climate change prediction grids were extracted from the UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Model (HadCM3). These grids were extracted for 2050. In the baseline period 76 stations of147 showed decreasing trends in annual rainfall and 71 increasing trends. Thirty six of the 76 stations showing a decrease were in the wet zone. In the intermediate zone 17 stations showed increasing trends and in the dry zone 34 stations indicated increasing trends. Mean annual rainfall (MAR) for the baseline period for the whole country was 2094 mm/year while the projected value for 2050 is 2249 mm/year. The increase of MAR over Sri Lanka by 2050 compared to the baseline period is about 7%. The comparison of rainfall between the baseline period and 2050 showed that some areas of the dry zone will receive MAR of more than 1750 mm and could be classified and included into the intermediate zone by 2050. Further, the increase of MAR for 11 agroecological regions goes beyond the variability observed in the baseline data set.
4 Mul, Marloes L.; Kasei, R. A.; McCartney, Matthew. 2016. Surface water resources of the Volta Basin. In Williams, Timothy O.; Mul, Marloes L.; Biney, C. A.; Smakhtin, Vladimir (Eds.). The Volta River Basin: water for food, economic growth and environment. Oxon, UK: Routledge - Earthscan. pp.31-45.
Surface water ; Water availability ; Water resources ; Water management ; Water scarcity ; Water allocation ; Water use ; Water power ; Energy generation ; River basin management ; Dams ; Climatic zones ; Infrastructure ; Riparian zones ; Equity / West Africa / Benin / Burkina Faso / Ivory Coast / Ghana / Mali / Togo / Volta River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: IWMI Record No: H047723)
5 Sri Lanka. Ministry of Environment and Renewable Energy. Natural Resources Management Division. 2014. National Action Program (NAP) for combating land degradation in Sri Lanka 2015 - 2024. Battaramulla, Sri Lanka: Ministry of Environment and Renewable Energy. Natural Resources Management Division. 146p. + CD.
Sustainable land management ; Land degradation ; Development programmes ; National planning ; Water resources ; Groundwater ; Climate change ; Monsoon climate ; Forest resources ; Biodiversity ; Environmental effects ; Mining ; Soil erosion ; Soil fertility ; Climatic zones ; Land use ; Highlands ; Farmland ; Cropping systems ; Plantation crops ; Vegetable growing ; Livestock ; State land ; Encroachment ; Institutions ; International agreements ; UNCCD ; Legislation ; Project planning ; Economic policies ; Population ; Poverty / Sri Lanka
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 333.73 G744 SRI Record No: H048060)
www.unccd.int/ActionProgrammes/Sri%20Lanka-2015-2024-eng.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H048060.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H048060.pdf
(2.91 MB) (2.91 MB)
6 Singh, O.; Kasana, A.; Sharma, T. 2020. Groundwater irrigation market patterns and practices over an agriculturally developed province of North-West India. GeoJournal, 85(3):703-729. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-09992-2]
Groundwater irrigation ; Agricultural sector ; Water market ; Cropping patterns ; Farmers attitudes ; Smallholders ; Crop yield ; Tube wells ; Semiarid zones ; Climatic zones / India / Haryana
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049767)
(0.80 MB)
The continuous demand of groundwater for irrigation in the agricultural sector has shown remarkable development of groundwater resources in Haryana. Small farmers with limited resources cannot install deep tube wells and therefore have to buy groundwater from large farmers for irrigation. These groundwater irrigation markets have emerged as robust and leading irrigation institutions. Their prevalence supports about 15% of the total irrigated area. Amongst the different size of land ownership, the small farmers irrigate nearly 44% of their cultivated land with purchased water from the neighboring large farmers. The cropping intensity achieved by groundwater buyers is far higher than the sellers. However, on an average each seller supports 1.6 buyers, 6.1 ha of land and 34% of the buyer’s land. Generally, the sellers exploit groundwater buyers in groundwater transactions. The sellers follow the principle of profit maximization and do not negotiate with buyers on groundwater irrigation markets norms. The major objective of this study is to highlight the patterns and practices of groundwater irrigation markets in Haryana.
7 Dembele, M.; Ceperley, N.; Zwart, Sander J.; Salvadore, E.; Mariethoz, G.; Schaefli, B. 2020. Potential of satellite and reanalysis evaporation datasets for hydrological modelling under various model calibration strategies. Advances in Water Resources, 143:103667. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103667]
Hydrology ; Modelling ; Calibration ; Strategies ; Satellites ; Remote sensing ; Evaporation ; River basins ; Stream flow ; Water storage ; Soil water content ; Climatic zones ; Forecasting ; Datasets ; Performance evaluation ; Spatial distribution / West Africa / Volta River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049804)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030917082030230X/pdfft?md5=fe6a7ca8d66941a8fd4455b385a1dd8c&pid=1-s2.0-S030917082030230X-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049804.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049804.pdf
(4.54 MB) (4.54 MB)
Twelve actual evaporation datasets are evaluated for their ability to improve the performance of the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). The datasets consist of satellite-based diagnostic models (MOD16A2, SSEBop, ALEXI, CMRSET, SEBS), satellite-based prognostic models (GLEAM v3.2a, GLEAM v3.3a, GLEAM v3.2b, GLEAM v3.3b), and reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA-2, JRA-55). Four distinct multivariate calibration strategies (basin-average, pixel-wise, spatial bias-accounting and spatial bias-insensitive) using actual evaporation and streamflow are implemented, resulting in 48 scenarios whose results are compared with a benchmark model calibrated solely with streamflow data. A process-diagnostic approach is adopted to evaluate the model responses with in-situ data of streamflow and independent remotely sensed data of soil moisture from ESA-CCI and terrestrial water storage from GRACE. The method is implemented in the Volta River basin, which is a data scarce region in West Africa, for the period from 2003 to 2012.
Results show that the evaporation datasets have a good potential for improving model calibration, but this is dependent on the calibration strategy. All the multivariate calibration strategies outperform the streamflow-only calibration. The highest improvement in the overall model performance is obtained with the spatial bias-accounting strategy (+29%), followed by the spatial bias-insensitive strategy (+26%) and the pixel-wise strategy (+24%), while the basin-average strategy (+20%) gives the lowest improvement. On average, using evaporation data in addition to streamflow for model calibration decreases the model performance for streamflow (-7%), which is counterbalance by the increase in the performance of the terrestrial water storage (+11%), temporal dynamics of soil moisture (+6%) and spatial patterns of soil moisture (+89%). In general, the top three best performing evaporation datasets are MERRA-2, GLEAM v3.3a and SSEBop, while the bottom three datasets are MOD16A2, SEBS and ERA5. However, performances of the evaporation products diverge according to model responses and across climatic zones. These findings open up avenues for improving process representation of hydrological models and advancing the spatiotemporal prediction of floods and droughts under climate and land use changes.
Results show that the evaporation datasets have a good potential for improving model calibration, but this is dependent on the calibration strategy. All the multivariate calibration strategies outperform the streamflow-only calibration. The highest improvement in the overall model performance is obtained with the spatial bias-accounting strategy (+29%), followed by the spatial bias-insensitive strategy (+26%) and the pixel-wise strategy (+24%), while the basin-average strategy (+20%) gives the lowest improvement. On average, using evaporation data in addition to streamflow for model calibration decreases the model performance for streamflow (-7%), which is counterbalance by the increase in the performance of the terrestrial water storage (+11%), temporal dynamics of soil moisture (+6%) and spatial patterns of soil moisture (+89%). In general, the top three best performing evaporation datasets are MERRA-2, GLEAM v3.3a and SSEBop, while the bottom three datasets are MOD16A2, SEBS and ERA5. However, performances of the evaporation products diverge according to model responses and across climatic zones. These findings open up avenues for improving process representation of hydrological models and advancing the spatiotemporal prediction of floods and droughts under climate and land use changes.
8 Mapa, R. B. (Ed.) 2020. The soils of Sri Lanka. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 128p. (World Soils Book Series) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44144-9]
Soil types ; Soil surveys ; Soil sciences ; Geomorphology ; Geology ; Soil degradation ; Soil fertility ; Soil salinity ; Soil erosion ; Mineralogical soil types ; Tropical soils ; Clay minerals ; Kaolinite ; Smectites ; Luvisols ; Acrisols ; Alluvial soils ; Rock ; Weathering ; Highlands ; Landslides ; Arid zones ; Lowland ; Climatic zones ; Agroecological zones ; Coastal plains ; Floodplains ; Plantation crops ; Land resources ; Land use planning ; Legislation ; Drainage systems ; Eutrophication ; Environmental effects ; Monsoon climate ; Rain ; Temperature ; Waterlogging / Sri Lanka
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy SF Record No: H049945)
9 Alahacoon, Niranga; Edirisinghe, M. 2021. Spatial variability of rainfall trends in Sri Lanka from 1989 to 2019 as an indication of climate change. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 10(2):84. [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10020084]
Rainfall patterns ; Trends ; Climate change ; Spatial variation ; Weather hazards ; Climatic zones ; Natural disasters ; Precipitation ; Flooding ; Monsoons ; Drought ; Arid zones ; Semiarid zones ; Geographical information systems / Sri Lanka
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050312)
(3.82 MB) (3.82 MB)
Analysis of long-term rainfall trends provides a wealth of information on effective crop planning and water resource management, and a better understanding of climate variability over time. This study reveals the spatial variability of rainfall trends in Sri Lanka from 1989 to 2019 as an indication of climate change. The exclusivity of the study is the use of rainfall data that provide spatial variability instead of the traditional location-based approach. Henceforth, daily rainfall data available at Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation corrected with stations (CHIRPS) data were used for this study. The geographic information system (GIS) is used to perform spatial data analysis on both vector and raster data. Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test are used to investigate the trends in annual and seasonal rainfall throughout all districts and climatic zones of Sri Lanka. The most important thing reflected in this study is that there has been a significant increase in annual rainfall from 1989 to 2019 in all climatic zones (wet, dry, intermediate, and Semi-arid) of Sri Lanka. The maximum increase is recorded in the wet zone and the minimum increase is in the semi-arid zone. There could be an increased risk of floods in the southern and western provinces in the future, whereas areas in the eastern and southeastern districts may face severe droughts during the northeastern monsoon. It is advisable to introduce effective drought and flood management and preparedness measures to reduce the respective hazard risk levels.
10 Liu, Y.; Zhang, J.-y.; Elmahdi, Amgad; Yang, Q.-l.; Guan, X.-x.; Liu, C.-s.; He, R.-m.; Wang, G.-q. 2021. Transferability of a lumped hydrologic model, the Xin’anjiang model based on similarity in climate and geography. Water Supply, 21(5):2191-2201. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2021.055]
Hydrology ; Models ; Watersheds ; Catchment areas ; Climatic zones ; Geography ; Rivers ; Runoff ; Discharges ; Precipitation ; Forecasting ; Experimentation / China / Chuzhou / Chengxi Experimental Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050320)
https://iwaponline.com/ws/article-pdf/21/5/2191/920069/ws021052191.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050320.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050320.pdf
(0.52 MB) (532 KB)
Hydrological experiments are essential to understanding the hydrological cycles and promoting the development of hydrologic models. Model parameter transfers provide a new way of doing hydrological forecasts and simulations in ungauged catchments. To study the transferability of model parameters for hydrological modelling and the influence of parameter transfers on hydrological simulations, the Xin’anjiang model (XAJ model), which is a lumped hydrologic model based on a saturation excess mechanism that has been widely applied in different climate regions of the world, was applied to a low hilly catchment in eastern China, the Chengxi Experimental Watershed (CXEW). The suitability of the XAJ model was tested in the eastern branch catchment of CXEW and the calibrated model parameters of the eastern branch catchment were then transferred to the western branch catchment and the entire watershed of the CXEW. The results show that the XAJ model performs well for the calibrated eastern branch catchment at both daily and monthly scales on hydrological modelling with the NSEs over 0.6 and the REs less than 2.0%. Besides, the uncalibrated catchments of the western branch catchment and the entire watershed of the CSEW share similarities in climate (the precipitation) and geography (the soil texture and vegetation cover) with the calibrated catchment, the XAJ model and the transferred model parameters can capture the main features of the hydrological processes in both uncalibrated catchments (western catchments and the entire watershed). This transferability of the model is useful for a scarce data region to simulate the hydrological process and its forecasting.
11 Yaduvanshi, A.; Nkemelang, T.; Bendapudi, R.; New, M. 2021. Temperature and rainfall extremes change under current and future global warming levels across Indian climate zones. Weather and Climate Extremes, 31:100291. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100291]
Climate change ; Extreme weather events ; Temperature ; Rain ; Precipitation ; Global warming ; Forecasting ; Climatic zones ; Greenhouse gas emissions ; Models / India
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050339)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094720303042/pdfft?md5=e868c50a48a440b49b3974bdac993b9f&pid=1-s2.0-S2212094720303042-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050339.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050339.pdf
(20.30 MB) (20.3 MB)
Mean surface temperature is projected to rise by about 4.4 °C by the end of the century compared to the period between 1976 and 2005 when following the most extreme scenario of the greenhouse gas emissions pathway (Krishnan et al., 2020). With this rise in mean temperature, there is a lot of uncertainty on how weather and climate extremes would unfold, especially for various climate zones of India. It is therefore essential that the potential changes in both magnitude and direction of weather and climate extremes at the regional level when the global temperature reaches the different warming levels from 1 °C to 3 °C be established to allow for informed policy formulation.
The present study explores the potential changes in the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices of rainfall and temperature estimated from the coupled model inter-comparison project CMIP5 multi-model ensemble over different climatic zones of India at 1 °C, 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 2.5 °C and 3 °C global temperature rise relative to pre-industrial levels under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projected changes in temperature extremes indicate significant changes at all warming levels across the nine climate zones of India. Hot temperature extremes are expected to increase while cold temperature extremes decrease. For India, country average at 3 °C under the RCP8.5 and 2 °C under the RCP4.5 scenarios, ensemble median shows that Warm Spell Duration Index will increase by 131 days and 66 days; hot days increase by 44% and 52%, warm nights increase by 23% and 13%; cold days decrease by 10% and 9%, and cold nights decrease by 13% and 12% relative to pre-industrial levels. The greatest changes in temperature based indices are projected in the colder northern parts of the country followed by the arid zone. Ensemble median for rainfall indices shows an increase in high precipitation indices, though with large model spread indicating the large uncertainties in the projections. Annual total precipitation and heavy rainfall related extreme indices show statistically significant increases in the tropical, temperate and semi-arid regions of India, moving from 1 °C to 3 °C warming level under RCP8.5 scenario whereas there is generally no significant change in the maximum number of consecutive dry and wet days.
Moreover, the potential changes in climate extremes at the regional level are expected to have far-reaching impacts on the social and economic statuses of the respective climate zones. This information at a regional scale also calls attention to the national and state action plan on climate change and adaptation to be more responsive in order to take coherent and integrated policy decisions.
The present study explores the potential changes in the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices of rainfall and temperature estimated from the coupled model inter-comparison project CMIP5 multi-model ensemble over different climatic zones of India at 1 °C, 1.5 °C, 2 °C, 2.5 °C and 3 °C global temperature rise relative to pre-industrial levels under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projected changes in temperature extremes indicate significant changes at all warming levels across the nine climate zones of India. Hot temperature extremes are expected to increase while cold temperature extremes decrease. For India, country average at 3 °C under the RCP8.5 and 2 °C under the RCP4.5 scenarios, ensemble median shows that Warm Spell Duration Index will increase by 131 days and 66 days; hot days increase by 44% and 52%, warm nights increase by 23% and 13%; cold days decrease by 10% and 9%, and cold nights decrease by 13% and 12% relative to pre-industrial levels. The greatest changes in temperature based indices are projected in the colder northern parts of the country followed by the arid zone. Ensemble median for rainfall indices shows an increase in high precipitation indices, though with large model spread indicating the large uncertainties in the projections. Annual total precipitation and heavy rainfall related extreme indices show statistically significant increases in the tropical, temperate and semi-arid regions of India, moving from 1 °C to 3 °C warming level under RCP8.5 scenario whereas there is generally no significant change in the maximum number of consecutive dry and wet days.
Moreover, the potential changes in climate extremes at the regional level are expected to have far-reaching impacts on the social and economic statuses of the respective climate zones. This information at a regional scale also calls attention to the national and state action plan on climate change and adaptation to be more responsive in order to take coherent and integrated policy decisions.
12 Thiel, Felix; Phillips, I.; Drechsel, Nikita. 2020. Megapolis city region food systems and their vulnerability towards climate change related hazards. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE). 2p.
Food systems ; Urban areas ; Vulnerability ; Climate change ; Extreme weather events ; Drought ; Flooding ; Rain ; Temperature ; Sea level ; Climatic zones / Sri Lanka
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050836)
https://waterdata.iwmi.org/applications/sanitaion/reports/Climate%20resilient%20City%20Region%20Food%20Systems_Two%20pager.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050836.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050836.pdf
(6.85 MB) (6.85 MB)
13 Alahacoon, Niranga; Edirisinghe, M.; Simwanda, M.; Perera, E. N. C.; Nyirenda , V. R.; Ranagalage, M. 2022. Rainfall variability and trends over the African continent using TAMSAT data (1983-2020): towards climate change resilience and adaptation. Remote Sensing, 14(1):96. [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14010096]
Rainfall patterns ; Trends ; Climate change adaptation ; Resilience ; Weather hazards ; Climatic zones ; River basins ; Spatial distribution ; Monsoon climate ; Datasets / Africa
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050897)
(13.40 MB) (13.4 MB)
This study reveals rainfall variability and trends in the African continent using TAMSAT data from 1983 to 2020. In the study, a Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to analyze rainfall trends and their magnitude, respectively, under monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes as an indication of climate change using different natural and geographical contexts (i.e., sub-regions, climate zones, major river basins, and countries). The study finds that the highest annual rainfall trends were recorded in Rwanda (11.97 mm/year), the Gulf of Guinea (river basin 8.71 mm/year), the tropical rainforest climate zone (8.21 mm/year), and the Central African region (6.84 mm/year), while Mozambique (-0.437 mm/year), the subtropical northern desert (0.80 mm/year), the west coast river basin of South Africa (-0.360 mm/year), and the Northern Africa region (1.07 mm/year) show the lowest annual rainfall trends. There is a statistically significant increase in the rainfall in the countries of Africa’s northern and central regions, while there is no statistically significant change in the countries of the southern and eastern regions. In terms of climate zones, in the tropical northern desert climates, tropical northern peninsulas, and tropical grasslands, there is a significant increase in rainfall over the entire timeframe of the month, season, and year. This implies that increased rainfall will have a positive effect on the food security of the countries in those climatic zones. Since a large percentage of Africa’s agriculture is based only on rainfall (i.e., rain-fed agriculture), increasing trends in rainfall can assist climate resilience and adaptation, while declining rainfall trends can badly affect it. This information can be crucial for decision-makers concerned with effective crop planning and water resource management. The rainfall variability and trend analysis of this study provide important information to decision-makers that need to effectively mitigate drought and flood risk.
14 Streefkerk, I. N.; van den Homberg, M. J. C.; Whitfield, S.; Mittal, N.; Pope, E.; Werner, M.; Winsemius, H. C.; Comes, T.; Ertsen, M. W. 2022. Contextualising seasonal climate forecasts by integrating local knowledge on drought in Malawi. Climate Services, 25:100268. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100268]
Climate change ; Drought ; Forecasting ; Local knowledge ; Rainfed farming ; Farmers ; Decision making ; Weather data ; Indicators ; Climatic zones ; Highlands ; Models / Malawi / Salima / Mangochi / Zomba
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050933)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072100056X/pdfft?md5=2b30c30ffb45eb7db61622ee78e3aa8e&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072100056X-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050933.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050933.pdf
(4.76 MB) (4.76 MB)
Droughts and changing rainfall patterns due to natural climate variability and climate change, threaten the livelihoods of Malawi’s smallholder farmers, who constitute 80% of the population. Provision of seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) is one means to potentially increase the resilience of rainfed farming to drought by informing farmers in their agricultural decisions. Local knowledge can play an important role in improving the value of SCFs, by making the forecast better-suited to the local environment and decision-making. This study explores whether the contextual relevance of the information provided in SCFs can be improved through the integration of farmers’ local knowledge in three districts in central and southern Malawi. A forecast threshold model is established that uses meteorological indicators before the rainy season as predictors of dry conditions during that season. Local knowledge informs our selection of the meteorological indicators as potential predictors. Verification of forecasts made with this model shows that meteorological indicators based on local knowledge have a predictive value for forecasting dry conditions in the rainy season. The forecast skill differs per location, with increased skill in the Southern Highlands climate zone. In addition, the local knowledge indicators show increased predictive value in forecasting locally relevant dry conditions, in comparison to the currently-used El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators. We argue that the inclusion of local knowledge in the current drought information system of Malawi may improve the SCFs for farmers. We show that it is possible to capture local knowledge using observed station and climate reanalysis data. Our approach could benefit National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the development of relevant climate services and support drought-risk reduction by humanitarian actors.
15 Dembele, Moctar; Vrac, M.; Ceperley, N.; Zwart, Sander J.; Larsen, J.; Dadson, S. J.; Mariethoz, G.; Schaefli, B. 2022. Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River Basin under global warming. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(5):1481-1506. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022]
River basins ; Hydrological cycle ; Global warming ; Hydrological modelling ; Climate change ; Forecasting ; Water availability ; Hydroclimate ; Climatic zones ; Spatial variation ; Datasets / West Africa / Volta River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051026)
https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/1481/2022/hess-26-1481-2022.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051026.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051026.pdf
(4.33 MB) (4.33 MB)
A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM–GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The bias-corrected climate projections are then used as input to the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the 21st century (1991–2100).
Results reveal contrasting dynamics in the seasonality of rainfall, depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High- and low-flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. The evolutions of streamflow indicate a future delay in the date of occurrence of low flows up to 11 d under RCP8.5, while high flows could occur 6 d earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 d later (RCP8.5), as compared to the historical period.
Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water– energy–food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision-makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socioeconomic development.
Results reveal contrasting dynamics in the seasonality of rainfall, depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High- and low-flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. The evolutions of streamflow indicate a future delay in the date of occurrence of low flows up to 11 d under RCP8.5, while high flows could occur 6 d earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 d later (RCP8.5), as compared to the historical period.
Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water– energy–food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision-makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socioeconomic development.
16 Dahal, B.; Avellan, T.; Haghighi, A. T.; Klove, B. 2023. Defining sustainability in agricultural water management using a delphi survey technique. Water Policy, 25(6):597-621. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2023.057]
Agricultural water management ; Sustainability ; Techniques ; Water resources ; Stakeholders ; Climate change ; Water quality ; Participation ; Water policies ; Climatic zones ; Case studies
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051999)
https://iwaponline.com/wp/article-pdf/25/6/597/1247184/025060597.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051999.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051999.pdf
(0.91 MB) (936 KB)
Sustainable water management measures are being developed to address the challenges posed by agriculture runoff and leaching on water resources. These measures are based on experts' opinions from various sectors and disciplines, ensuring that all stakeholders' perspectives are considered. For this, establishing a common understanding of 'sustainability' is essential to avoid misunderstandings, conflicts, and operational challenges. In this research, the Delphi survey technique was utilized to develop a definition of ‘sustainability’ in agricultural water management (SAWM) by considering the interdisciplinary group of experts from different parts of the world and those involved in a Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Action. Twenty-six experts' perspectives on environmental, economic, and social dimensions of sustainability were assessed, and identified key concepts included climate change, water quality, water availability, stakeholder participation, capacity building, subsidies, and incentives. These concepts were used to define sustainability for multi/interdisciplinary project settings. The definition was validated with consortium members of the project in the regular consortium-wide meetings and used in the respective deliverables dealing with sustainability. The results serve as a foundation for communication between the involved actors and the project's definition of 'sustainability.' One recommendation from this work for broader policy formulation for SAWM in Europe is to prioritize farmer needs and focus on environmental sustainability.
17 Mekonnen, Kirubel; Velpuri, Naga Manohar; Leh, Mansoor; Akpoti, Komlavi; Owusu, Afua; Tinonetsana, Primrose; Hamouda, T.; Ghansah, B.; Paranamana, Thilina Prabhath; Munzimi, Y. 2023. Accuracy of satellite and reanalysis rainfall estimates over Africa: a multi-scale assessment of eight products for continental applications. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 49:101514. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101514]
Rainfall ; Estimation ; Satellites ; Datasets ; Models ; Performance assessment ; Evaluation ; Climatology ; River basins ; Climatic zones ; Rain gauges ; Observation / Africa
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052164)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221458182300201X/pdfft?md5=eeafc6b121eec039f2a2cd37cb0c7e67&pid=1-s2.0-S221458182300201X-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052164.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052164.pdf
(14.00 MB) (14.0 MB)
Study Region: Continental Africa
Study Focus: This study evaluates the accuracy of eight gauge-corrected rainfall products across Africa through direct comparisons with in situ observations for the period 2001–2020. The effect of validation datasets on the performance of the rainfall products was also quantified in ten African countries. Four categorical and five continuous metrics were estimated at multiple spatial and temporal scales as part of the evaluation.
New hydrological insights for the Region: Results indicate that the performance of the rainfall products varied in space and time. Evaluation at temporal scales revealed that, on average, most rainfall products showed poor results (KGE < 0.35) at the daily timescale. In contrast, RFE v2.0, ARC v2.0, and MSWEP v2.8 were reliable (KGE > 0.75) at the monthly and annual timescales. Among the rainfall products, the performance of TAMSATv3.1, PERSIANN-CDR, and ERA 5 was relatively poor in capturing in situ observations. Evaluation at various spatial scales revealed mixed results. The ARC v2.0 and CHIRPS v2.0 rainfall products were reliable in detecting no rains (< 1 mm/day) for all 19 spatial scales, indicating a high level of confidence for drought studies. IMERG-F v6B and RFE v2.0 were reliable in detecting heavy and high-intensity rainfall events for all spatial scales. Using the KGE performance metrics at the regional level, MSWEP v2.8 in the Northern Africa region, RFE v2.0 in the Western and Southern Africa regions, ARC v2.0 in Central Africa, and CHIRPS v2.0 in the Eastern Africa region showed better performances at monthly timescale. Moreover, the performance of the gauge-corrected rainfall datasets was reduced when compared with independent validation data (gauge data not used by rainfall products) than dependent validation data. This study provides several new insights into choosing a rainfall product for continental to regional applications and identifies the need for bias correction.
Study Focus: This study evaluates the accuracy of eight gauge-corrected rainfall products across Africa through direct comparisons with in situ observations for the period 2001–2020. The effect of validation datasets on the performance of the rainfall products was also quantified in ten African countries. Four categorical and five continuous metrics were estimated at multiple spatial and temporal scales as part of the evaluation.
New hydrological insights for the Region: Results indicate that the performance of the rainfall products varied in space and time. Evaluation at temporal scales revealed that, on average, most rainfall products showed poor results (KGE < 0.35) at the daily timescale. In contrast, RFE v2.0, ARC v2.0, and MSWEP v2.8 were reliable (KGE > 0.75) at the monthly and annual timescales. Among the rainfall products, the performance of TAMSATv3.1, PERSIANN-CDR, and ERA 5 was relatively poor in capturing in situ observations. Evaluation at various spatial scales revealed mixed results. The ARC v2.0 and CHIRPS v2.0 rainfall products were reliable in detecting no rains (< 1 mm/day) for all 19 spatial scales, indicating a high level of confidence for drought studies. IMERG-F v6B and RFE v2.0 were reliable in detecting heavy and high-intensity rainfall events for all spatial scales. Using the KGE performance metrics at the regional level, MSWEP v2.8 in the Northern Africa region, RFE v2.0 in the Western and Southern Africa regions, ARC v2.0 in Central Africa, and CHIRPS v2.0 in the Eastern Africa region showed better performances at monthly timescale. Moreover, the performance of the gauge-corrected rainfall datasets was reduced when compared with independent validation data (gauge data not used by rainfall products) than dependent validation data. This study provides several new insights into choosing a rainfall product for continental to regional applications and identifies the need for bias correction.
18 Dembele, Moctar; Salvadore, E.; Zwart, Sander; Ceperley, N.; Mariethoz, G.; Schaefli, B. 2023. Water accounting under climate change in the transboundary Volta River Basin with a spatially calibrated hydrological model. Journal of Hydrology, 626(Part A):130092. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130092]
Water accounting ; Climate change ; Transboundary waters ; River basins ; Hydrological modelling ; Water balance ; Water resources ; Water management ; Sustainability ; Water availability ; Water use ; Climate models ; Evaporation ; Land cover ; Land use ; Runoff ; Climatic zones / West Africa / Benin / Burkina Faso / Côte d'Ivoire / Ghana / Mali / Togo / Volta River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052224)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216942301034X/pdfft?md5=f4d5176402091d76575e267a91c8113a&pid=1-s2.0-S002216942301034X-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052224.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052224.pdf
(10.80 MB) (10.8 MB)
Sustainable water management requires evidence-based information on the current and future states of water resources. This study presents a comprehensive modelling framework that integrates the fully distributed mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) and climate change scenarios with the Water Accounting Plus (WA+) tool to anticipate future water resource challenges and provide mitigation measures in the transboundary Volta River basin (VRB) in West Africa. The mHM model is forced with a large ensemble of climate change projection data from CORDEX-Africa. Outputs from mHM are used as inputs to the WA+ framework to report on water flows and consumption over the historical baseline period 1991–2020 and the near-term future 2021–2050 at the basin scale, and also across spatial domains including four climatic zones, four sub-basins and six riparian countries. The long-term multi-model ensemble mean of the net inflow to the basin is found to be 419 km3 /year with an inter-annual variability of 11% and is projected to slightly increase in the near-term future (2021–2050). However, evaporation consumes most of the net inflow, with only 8% remaining as runoff. About 4 km3 /year of water is currently used for man-made activities. Only 45% of the available water is beneficially consumed, with the agricultural sector representing 34% of the beneficial water consumption. Water availability is projected to increase in the future due to the increase in rainfall, along with higher inter-model and inter-annual variabilities, thereby highlighting the need for adaptation strategies. These findings and the proposed climate-resilient land and water management strategies can help optimize the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus and support evidence-based decisions and policy-making for sustainable water management in the VRB.
19 Jampani, Mahesh; Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga. 2023. Climate variability and extremes impacts on seasonality of occurrence and risk probability of dengue prevalence in Sri Lanka [Abstract only]. Paper presented at the American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting 2023 (AGU23), San Francisco, CA, USA and Online, 11-15 December 2023. 2p.
Climate variability ; Risk ; Dengue ; Vector-borne diseases ; Rainfall ; Flooding ; Drought ; Satellites ; Remote sensing ; Climatic zones / Sri Lanka / Western Province
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052467)
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm23/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1451072
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052467.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052467.pdf
(0.43 MB)
Dengue is a mosquito and vector-borne viral disease, and climate variability and extremes like floods and droughts have an increasing influence on dengue prevalence in the global south, especially in Sri Lanka. A rising number of dengue cases has been reported yearly since 2009 in Sri Lanka. Many studies reported a strong correlation between climate change and dengue prevalence, but evaluating the underlying causing factors is often complex. In this context, we analysed and evaluated the weekly dengue cases with respect to climate variability and extremes over the last decade for all the districts of Sri Lanka. This study elucidated the seasonality of the occurrence of dengue cases and the risk probability of dengue prevalence. We used satellite remote sensing datasets to extract various climate indicators like rainfall, and further satellite datasets are validated with station datasets for accuracy assessment. We performed integrated statistical analysis to evaluate and predict the probability of occurrence of dengue cases with respect to regional climate variability and extremes. Our initial results suggest that seasonality and rainfall play a critical role in Sri Lanka, especially the high probability of reported dengue prevalence in the western province of Sri Lanka. We also found that monsoonal dynamics, rainfall intensities, and dry and wet conditions could significantly influence the increased risk of dengue. The typical high number of dengue cases occurs between May to August and November to January seasons, depending on the climate zones where the districts are located. Overall, our results aim to feed into understanding the risk probability and seasonal dynamics of dengue prevalence, which can provide insights into the seasonal occurrence of dengue prevalence for control and suitable prevention measures.
20 Reyes-García, V.; García-del-Amo, D.; Álvarez-Fernández, S.; Benyei, P.; Calvet-Mir, L.; Junqueira, A. B.; Labeyrie, V.; LI, X.; Miñarro, S.; Porcher, V.; Porcuna-Ferrer, A.; Schlingmann, A.; Schunko, C.; Soleymani, R.; Tofighi-Niaki, A.; Abazeri, M.; Attoh, Emmanuel M. N. A. N.; Ayanlade, A.; Ávila, J. V. D. C.; Babai, D.; Bulamah, R. C.; Campos-Silva, J.; Carmona, R.; Caviedes, J.; Chakauya, R.; Chambon, M.; Chen, Z.; Chengula, F.; Conde, E.; Cuní-Sanchez, A.; Demichelis, C.; Dudina, E.; Fernández-Llamazares, Á.; Galappaththi, E. K.; Geffner-Fuenmayor, C.; Gerkey, D.; Glauser, M.; Hirsch, E.; Huanca, T.; Ibarra, J. T.; Izquierdo, A. E.; Junsberg, L.; Lanker, M.; López-Maldonado, Y.; Mariel, J.; Mattalia, G.; Miara, M. D.; Torrents-Ticó, M.; Salimi, M.; Samakov, A.; Seidler, R.; Sharakhmatova, V.; Shrestha, U. B.; Sharma, A.; Singh, P.; Ulambayar, T.; Wu, R.; Zakari, I. S. 2024. Indigenous peoples and local communities report ongoing and widespread climate change impacts on local social-ecological systems. Communications Earth and Environment, 5:29. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01164-y]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052568)
(1.83 MB) (1.83 MB)
The effects of climate change depend on specific local circumstances, posing a challenge for worldwide research to comprehensively encompass the diverse impacts on various local social-ecological systems. Here we use a place-specific but cross-culturally comparable protocol to document climate change indicators and impacts as locally experienced and analyze their distribution. We collected first-hand data in 48 sites inhabited by Indigenous Peoples and local communities and covering all climate zones and nature-dependent livelihoods. We documented 1,661 site-agreed reports of change corresponding to 369 indicators. Reports of change vary according to climate zone and livelihood activity. We provide compelling evidence that climate change impacts on Indigenous Peoples and local communities are ongoing, tangible, widespread, and affect multiple elements of their social-ecological systems. Beyond potentially informing contextualized adaptation plans, our results show that local reports could help identify economic and non-economic loss and damage related to climate change impacts suffered by Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
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