Your search found 4 records
1 Vermeulen, S. J.; Aggarwal, Pramod; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B. M.; Challinor, A. J.; Hansen, J. W.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G. C.; Thornton, P. K.; Wollenberg, E. 2012. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science and Policy, 15(1):136-144. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.09.003]
Climate change ; Risks ; Food security ; Adaptation ; Agricultural production ; Greenhouse gases ; Policy
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H044598)
(0.38 MB)
Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture’s mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.
2 Vermeulen, S. J.; Aggarwal, Pramod; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B. M.; Challinor, A. J.; Hansen, J. W.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G. C.; Thornton, P. K.; Wollenberg, E. 2010. Agriculture, food security and climate change: outlook for knowledge, tools and action. Background paper prepared for The Hague Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change, 31 October - 5 November 2010. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). 16p.
Agriculture ; Food security ; Climate change ; Risks ; Models ; Greenhouse gases ; Policy ; Smallholders
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H044643)
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ccafs_report_3-low-res_final.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H044643.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H044643.pdf
(0.37 MB) (378.60KB)
Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on farming and food systems, and on the implications for adaptation and mitigation. Many of the trends and impacts are highly uncertain at a range of spatial and temporal scales; we need significant advances in predicting how climate variability and change will affect future food security. Despite these uncertainties, it is clear that the magnitude and rate of projected changes will require adaptation. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets, and (2) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems.Maximization of agriculture’s mitigation potential will require, among others, investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. The challenges posed by climate change to agriculture and food security require a holistic and strategic approach to linking knowledge with action. Key elements of this are greater interactions between decision-makers and researchers in all sectors, greater collaboration among climate, agriculture and food security communities, and consideration of interdependencies across whole food systems and landscapes. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent action in spite of uncertainties.
3 Vermeulen, S. J.; Challinor, A. J.; Thornton, P. K.; Campbell, B. M.; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, J; Kinyangi, J.; Jarvis, A.; Laderach, P.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Nicklin, K. J.; Hawkins, E.; Smith, D. R. 2013. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(21): 8357-8362.
Climate change ; Adaptation ; Uncertainty ; Agriculture ; Food security ; Developing countries ; Coffee ; Models ; Case studies ; Stakeholders ; Decision making ; Greenhouse gases / Sri Lanka / East Africa / Central America
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H045835)
(0.90 MB) (921.17KB)
We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterisation of uncertainty. Two cases, on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa, show how the relative utility of ‘capacity’ versus ‘impact’ approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. A further two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision-making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental versus transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterised at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that ‘impact’ approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.
4 Springmann, M.; Clark, M.; Mason-D’Croz, D.; Wiebe, K.; Bodirsky, B. L.; Lassaletta, L.; de Vries, W.; Vermeulen, S. J.; Herrero, M.; Carlson, K. M.; Jonell, M.; Troell, M.; DeClerck, F.; Gordon, L. J.; Zurayk, R.; Scarborough, P.; Rayner, M.; Loken, B.; Fanzo, J.; Godfray, H. C. J.; Tilman, D.; Rockstrom, J.; Willett, W. 2018. Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits. Nature, 562:519-525. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0]
Climate change ; Food systems ; Food consumption ; Environmental impact ; Ecosystems ; Land use ; Farmland ; Income ; Uncertainty ; Socioeconomic development ; Models ; Nitrogen ; Phosphorus
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049453)
(8.12 MB)
The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50–90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.
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