Your search found 11 records
1 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Thapa, Bhesh Raj. 2019. Hydrological response of Chamelia Watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change. Science of the Total Environment, 650(Part 1):365-383. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.053]
Water resources ; Watersheds ; Climate change ; Hydrological factors ; Water availability ; Water balance ; Stream flow ; Groundwater ; Temperature ; Precipitation ; Forecasting ; River basins ; Soil types ; Spatial distribution ; Models ; Uncertainty ; Hydrometeorology / Nepal / Mahakali Basin / Chamelia Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048982)
(6.23 MB)
Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km2 ), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001–2007; validated for 2008–2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.
2 Bharati, Luna; Bhattarai, Utsav; Khadka, Ambika; Gurung, Pabitra; Neumann, L. E.; Penton, D. J.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Nepal, S. 2019. From the mountains to the plains: impact of climate change on water resources in the Koshi River Basin. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI) 49p. (IWMI Working Paper 187) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5337/2019.205]
Climate change ; Climatic data ; Water resources ; Water balance ; Water yield ; Water availability ; Mountains ; Plains ; River basin management ; Soil analysis ; Soil water balance ; Calibration ; Spatial distribution ; Hydropower ; Precipitation ; Evapotranspiration ; Temperature ; Rainfall ; Monsoon climate ; Catchment areas ; Hydrological data ; Impact assessment ; Models ; Flow discharge ; Runoff ; Land use ; Seasonal variation / China / Nepal / India / Koshi River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: IWMI Record No: H049130)
(8 MB)
The Koshi Basin, spread across China, Nepal and India, is perceived as having high potential for hydropower and irrigation development, both seen as ways to promote economic development in the region. This paper quantifies and assesses the past and projected future spatial and temporal water balances in the Koshi Basin. Results show that precipitation and net water yield are lowest in the transmountain region and the Tibetan plateau. The values are highest in the mountain region, followed by the hills and Indo-Gangetic Plains. Approximately 65% of average annual precipitation is converted to flows, indicating high water availability. Actual evapotranspiration is highest in the Indo-Gangetic Plains region due to the presence of irrigated agriculture and a few forested mountain watersheds. As most of the water from the mountain and hill regions eventually flows down to the plains, the mountain and hill regions in Nepal are important for maintaining agriculture in the plains in both Nepal and India. Results from the flow analyses indicate the high temporal variability of flows in the basin. The frequent occurrences of both high- and low-flow events demonstrate the existing vulnerability of the region to both floods and droughts, leading to a very risk-prone livelihood system. Climate change projections show an increasing trend in precipitation and net water yield for most of the basin, except the transmountain region. Therefore, it is important to consider the climate change impacts on water resources in future planning.
3 Matheswaran, K.; Khadka, A.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Kumar, S.; Shrestha, S. 2019. Delineation of spring recharge zones using environmental isotopes to support climate-resilient interventions in two mountainous catchments in far-western Nepal. Hydrogeology Journal, 27(6):2181-2197. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-019-01973-6]
Water springs ; Groundwater recharge ; Artificial recharge ; Climate change ; Isotope analysis ; Stable isotopes ; Deuterium ; Highlands ; Catchment areas ; Hydrogeology ; Hydrometeorology ; Rainfall patterns ; Precipitation ; Flow discharge ; Altitude ; Monsoon climate ; Dry season / Nepal / Shikarpur / Banlek
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049195)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10040-019-01973-6.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049195.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049195.pdf
(6.57 MB) (6.57 MB)
Though springs are the primary source of water for communities in the mid-hills of Nepal, an in-depth scientific understanding of spring systems is missing, preventing the design of effective climate-resilient interventions for long-term sustainability of springs. This study marks the first attempt to combine environmental isotopes analysis with hydrometric and hydrogeological measurements to identify dominant recharge zones for springs in two mountainous catchments—Banlek and Shikarpur—in Far-Western Nepal. In total, 422 water samples collected from rainfall, springs and streams between March 2016 and March 2017 were analyzed for their isotopic composition (d18O and dD). Isotopic composition of rainwater shows seasonality, suggesting that different sources of water vapor cause rains in monsoon and in dry season. Rainfall responses of individual springs were used to identify connections to unconfined and deeper groundwater strata. The isotopic composition of springs in the two catchments ranges from -9.55 to -8.06‰ for d18O and -67.58 to -53.51‰ for dD. The isotopic signature of the spring sources falls close to the local meteoric water line for the corresponding season, indicating strong rainfall contribution to springs. Altitudinal isotopic gradients suggest mean recharge elevation of 2,600–2,700 m asl for springs in Shikarpur, which lies beyond the surface-water catchment, and a recharge elevation of 1,000–1,100 m asl for Banlek, which partially extends beyond the surface-water catchment. The demarcated recharge zones will be used by government agencies to implement recharge interventions to increase the resiliency and reliability of springs in Far-Western Nepal.
4 Pakhtigian, E. L.; Jeuland, M.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad. 2020. Balancing intersectoral demands in basin-scale planning: the case of Nepal’s western river basins. Water Resources and Economics, 30:100152. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2019.100152]
River basins ; Water resources development ; Planning ; Economic development ; Prioritization ; Ecosystems ; Economic value ; Energy generation ; Hydropower ; Irrigation programs ; Agricultural sector ; Infrastructure ; Costs ; Water allocation ; Hydrology ; Models ; Sensitivity analysis ; Environmental effects / Nepal / Karnali-Mohana River Basin / Mahakali River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049415)
(1.98 MB)
Basin-wide planning requires tools and strategies that allow comparison of alternative pathways and priorities at relevant spatial and temporal scales. In this paper, we apply a hydroeconomic model–the Western Nepal Energy Water Model–that better accounts for feedbacks between water and energy markets, to optimize water allocations across energy, agriculture, municipal, and environmental sectors. The model maximizes total economic benefits, accounting for trade-offs both within and across sectors. In Western Nepal, we find that surface water availability is generally sufficient to meet existing and growing demands in energy and agricultural sectors; however, expansion of water storage and irrigation infrastructure may limit environmental flows below levels needed to maintain the full integrity of important aquatic ecosystems. We also find substantial trade-offs between irrigation in Nepal and satisfaction of the institutional requirements implied by international water-use agreements with the downstream riparian India. Similar trade-offs do not exist with hydropower, however. Model results and allocations are sensitive to future domestic and international energy demands and valuations.
5 Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Bharati, Luna. 2020. Climate futures for western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX-SA [Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South Asia]. International Journal of Climatology, 40(4):2201-2225. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6327]
Climate change ; Forecasting ; Models ; Water resources ; Impact assessment ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Uncertainty ; Risk assessment ; Meteorological stations ; Decision support ; Mountains / South Asia / Nepal / Karnali
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049417)
(20.90 MB)
With the objective to provide a basis for regional climate models (RCMs) selection and ensemble generation for climate impact assessments, we perform the first ever analysis of climate projections for Western Nepal from 19 RCMs in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Using the climate futures (CF) framework, projected changes in annual total precipitation and average minimum/maximum temperature from the RCMs are classified into 18 CF matrices for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 4.5/8.5), three future time frames (2021–2045/2046–2070/2071–2095), three geographic regions (mountains/hills/plains) and three representative CF (low-risk/consensus/ high-risk). Ten plausible CF scenario ensembles were identified to assess future water availability in Karnali basin, the headwaters of the Ganges. Comparison of projections for the three regions with literature shows that spatial disaggregation possible using RCMs is important, as local values are often higher with higher variability than values for South Asia. Characterization of future climate using raw and bias-corrected data shows that RCM projections vary most between mountain and Tarai plains with increasing divergence for higher future and RCPs. Warmer temperatures, prolonged monsoon and sporadic rain events even in drier months are likely across all regions. Highest fluctuations in precipitation are projected for the hills and plains while highest changes in temperature are projected for the mountains. Trends in change in annual average discharge for the scenarios vary across the basin with both precipitation and temperature change influencing the hydrological cycle. CF matrices provide an accessible and simplified basis to systematically generate application-specific plausible climate scenario ensembles from all available RCMs for a rigorous impact assessment.
6 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Sharma, Akriti; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Joshi, I. R. 2019. Climate shocks and responses in Karnali-Mahakali basins, western Nepal. Climate, 7(7):1-24. (Special issue: Social-Ecological Systems, Climate and Global Change Impacts) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7070092]
Climate change adaptation ; Risk analysis ; River basins ; Climatology ; Weather hazards ; Drought ; Rain ; Flooding ; Hailstorms ; Crop losses ; Strategies ; Mountains ; Households ; Animal diseases / Nepal / Karnali River Basin / Mahakali River Basin / Mohana River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049418)
(2.29 MB) (2.29 MB)
The Himalayas are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, as it consequently increases the vulnerability of downstream communities, livelihoods and ecosystems. Western Nepal currently holds significant potential as multiple opportunities for water development within the country are underway. However, it is also identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change, with both an increase in the occurrence of natural disasters and exacerbated severity and impacts levels. Regional climate model (RCM) projections indicate warmer weather with higher variability in rainfall for this region. This paper combines bio-physical and social approaches to further study and understand the current climate shocks and responses present in Western Nepal. Data was collected from 3660 households across 122 primary sampling units across the Karnali, Mahakali and Mohana River basins along with focus group discussions, which provided a rich understanding of the currently perceived climatic shocks and related events. Further analysis of climatology was carried out through nine indices of precipitation and temperature that were found to be relevant to the discussed climate shocks. Results show that 79% of households reported experiencing at least one type of climate shock in the five-year period and the most common occurrence was droughts, which is also supported by the climate data. Disaggregated results show that perception varies with the region and among the basins. Analysis of climatic trends further show that irregular weather is most common in the hill region, although average reported frequency of irregular weather is higher in the mountain. Further analysis into the severity and response to climatic shocks suggest an imminent need for better adaptation strategies. This study’s results show that a vast majority of respondents lack proper access to knowledge and that successful adaptation strategies must be adapted to specific regions to meet communities’ local needs.
7 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Thapa, Bhesh Raj. 2018. Climate change and water availability in western Nepal. In Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST). Proceedings of the Seminar on Nature for Water, Kanchanpur, Nepal, 28 March 2018. Kathmandu, Nepal: Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) pp.8-19.
Climate change ; Water availability ; Hydrology ; Models ; Watersheds ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Forecasting ; Water resources ; River basins ; Projects / Nepal / Mahakali Basin / Chamelia Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049463)
http://www.nast.gov.np/documentfile/proceedings_theSeminar_Water.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049463.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049463.pdf
(0.84 MB) (6.21 MB)
The response of any hydrological system to climate change may differ depending on characteristics of the system. Such studies are lacking for basins in Western Nepal. This paper, therefore, argues for a need to re-phrase the context of Western Nepal in more positive light and then analyses how a projected change in climate may impact on water availability of the region with a case of Chamelia watershed. A hydrological model in SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) environment is developed for the purpose. Future climate is projected using a set of fi ve Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). Then response of streamfl ow with projected change in climate is assessed. Results show the developed model performance is adequate to represent hydrological characteristics of the watershed. Future is projected to be warmer (high model consensus) and slightly wetter (more uncertainty), with winter and premonsoon season receiving more rainfall. Under the projected future changes, simulated stream fl ow is projected to change across future periods and seasons. The results are expected to be useful for future water resource and water infrastructure planning in the area.
8 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna. 2017. Sustainable irrigation development: knowledge generation for Karnali-Mohana River Basin. In Nepal. Department of Irrigation. Proceedings of the 10th National Irrigation Seminar on Climate Smart Innovation for the Sustainable Irrigation Development, Nagarkot, Kathmandu, 1-2 June 2017. Lalitpur, Nepal: Department of Irrigation. pp.39-50.
Irrigation management ; Sustainable development ; Irrigation programs ; Water resources ; Water availability ; River basins ; Knowledge based systems ; Irrigation systems ; Water governance ; Water management ; Environmental flows / Nepal / Karnali-Mohana River Basin / Digo Jal Bikas Project
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049464)
(1.24 MB)
Water resources planning and management requires technical knowledge as well as social and environmental considerations and enabling environment for sustainable and equitable development. In this context, this paper highlights the Digo Jal Bikas project which is using a multi-disciplinary framework to generate science-based understanding required for sustainable irrigation development. The project is creating a knowledgebase including an inventory of irrigation and hydropower projects; water availability under current and future climatic conditions; environmental flows requirements for various types of river systems; tradeoff analysis of various water resources development scenarios; and water governance analysis. We present here how the project is generating such a multi-disciplinary knowledgebase that is key for promoting sustainable irrigation development in the Karnali-Mohana basin in the western Nepal.
9 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Thapa, Bhesh Raj. 2020. Spatio-temporal distribution of water availability in Karnali-Mohana Basin, western Nepal: hydrological model development using multi-site calibration approach (Part-A). Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 29:100690. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100690]
Water availability ; Spatial distribution ; Hydrology ; Models ; Calibration ; River basins ; Water resources ; Precipitation ; Evapotranspiration ; Water yield ; Water balance ; Groundwater ; Land use ; Land cover ; Meteorological stations ; Monsoon climate ; Soil types / Nepal / Karnali-Mohana River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049721)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581820301646/pdfft?md5=982f21101d159ac4aa2a890bfe048505&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581820301646-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049721.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049721.pdf
(4.54 MB) (4.54 MB)
Study region: Karnali-Mohana (KarMo) river basin, Western Nepal.
Study focus: This study has developed a hydrological model using multi-site calibration approach for a large basin, the Karnali-Mohana (KarMo) in Western Nepal, which has a lot of potential for water resources development and contribute to the national prosperity. It further applies the model to characterize hydrology and water resources availability across spatio-temporal scales to enhance understanding on water availability and potential uses. The newly developed hydrological model in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is capable of reproducing the hydrological pattern, the average flows, and the flow duration curve at the outlet of the basin and five major sub-basins.
New hydrological insights for this region: The model simulated results showed that about 34 % of average annual precipitation in the KarMo basin is lost as evapotranspiration, but with a large spatio-temporal heterogeneity. The Hills and Tarai are relatively wetter than the Mountains. The average annual flow volume at the basin outlet is estimated as 46,250 million-cubic-meters (MCM). The hydrological characterization made in this study are further used for climate change impact assessment (Part-B in the same journal), environmental flows assessment and evaluating trade-offs among various water development pathways, which are published elsewhere. This model, therefore, has potential to contribute for strategic planning and sustainable management of water resources to fuel the country’s prosperity.
Study focus: This study has developed a hydrological model using multi-site calibration approach for a large basin, the Karnali-Mohana (KarMo) in Western Nepal, which has a lot of potential for water resources development and contribute to the national prosperity. It further applies the model to characterize hydrology and water resources availability across spatio-temporal scales to enhance understanding on water availability and potential uses. The newly developed hydrological model in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is capable of reproducing the hydrological pattern, the average flows, and the flow duration curve at the outlet of the basin and five major sub-basins.
New hydrological insights for this region: The model simulated results showed that about 34 % of average annual precipitation in the KarMo basin is lost as evapotranspiration, but with a large spatio-temporal heterogeneity. The Hills and Tarai are relatively wetter than the Mountains. The average annual flow volume at the basin outlet is estimated as 46,250 million-cubic-meters (MCM). The hydrological characterization made in this study are further used for climate change impact assessment (Part-B in the same journal), environmental flows assessment and evaluating trade-offs among various water development pathways, which are published elsewhere. This model, therefore, has potential to contribute for strategic planning and sustainable management of water resources to fuel the country’s prosperity.
10 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Thapa, Bhesh Raj. 2020. Spatio-temporal distribution of water availability in Karnali-Mohana Basin, western Nepal: climate change impact assessment (Part-B). Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 29:100691. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2020.100691]
Water availability ; Spatial distribution ; River basins ; Climate change ; Impact assessment ; Forecasting ; Water resources ; Hydrology ; Models ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Monsoon climate ; Meteorological stations / Nepal / Karnali-Mohana River Basin / Bheri River Basin / Seti River Basin / Tila River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049744)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581820301658/pdfft?md5=ff42bea00d5ed47036d646dc01e141b2&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581820301658-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049744.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049744.pdf
(4.12 MB) (4.12 MB)
Study region: Karnali-Mohana river basin, Western Nepal.
Study focus: This study aims to project future climate and assess impacts of climate change (CC) on water availability in the Karnali-Mohana (KarMo) basin. Bias-corrected future climate was projected based on ensembles of multiple models selected from a set of 19 regional climate models (RCMs). The impacts on water availability were then assessed by forcing a well calibrated and validated hydrological model with projected future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) for various climatic scenarios.
New hydrological insights for this region: Results showed that future T is projected to increase spatio-temporally with higher rate for the mountain stations in the winter season; whereas future P has no distinct spatio-temporal trend but increase in dry season precipitation for future periods. The projected changes in P, T and evapotranspiration are expected to alter average annual flow at the outlets of the KarMo and its sub-basins, albeit with varying rate. The simulated results showed higher impacts in water availability at higher altitudes, thus indicating higher vulnerability of northern mountainous region to CC than the southern flatlands. Being the first ever study of such nature in the study area, these results will be useful for planning and development of climate-resilient water development projects in the region.
Study focus: This study aims to project future climate and assess impacts of climate change (CC) on water availability in the Karnali-Mohana (KarMo) basin. Bias-corrected future climate was projected based on ensembles of multiple models selected from a set of 19 regional climate models (RCMs). The impacts on water availability were then assessed by forcing a well calibrated and validated hydrological model with projected future precipitation (P) and temperature (T) for various climatic scenarios.
New hydrological insights for this region: Results showed that future T is projected to increase spatio-temporally with higher rate for the mountain stations in the winter season; whereas future P has no distinct spatio-temporal trend but increase in dry season precipitation for future periods. The projected changes in P, T and evapotranspiration are expected to alter average annual flow at the outlets of the KarMo and its sub-basins, albeit with varying rate. The simulated results showed higher impacts in water availability at higher altitudes, thus indicating higher vulnerability of northern mountainous region to CC than the southern flatlands. Being the first ever study of such nature in the study area, these results will be useful for planning and development of climate-resilient water development projects in the region.
11 Chapagain, D.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna. 2021. Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal. Climatic Change, 168(1-2):8. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03216-8]
Climate change ; Extreme weather events ; Forecasting ; Trends ; Temperature ; Precipitation ; River basins ; Highlands ; Lowland ; Rain ; Monsoons ; Natural disasters ; Impact assessment ; Water resources ; Energy ; Agriculture ; Food security ; Forests ; Biodiversity ; Tourism ; Public health / Nepal / Karnali River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050668)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-021-03216-8.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050668.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050668.pdf
(2.13 MB) (2.13 MB)
Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low-and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here.
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