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1 Luedeling, E.; Oord, A. L.; Kiteme, B.; Ogalleh, S.; Malesu, M.; Shepherd, K. D.; De Leeuw, J.. 2015. Fresh groundwater for Wajir—ex-ante assessment of uncertain benefits for multiple stakeholders in a water supply project in northern Kenya. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 3:1-18. [doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2015.00016]
Groundwater extraction ; Water supply ; Project design ; Uncertainty ; Ex-ante impact assessment ; Stakeholders ; Decision making ; Models ; Risk assessment ; Cost benefit analysis ; Hydrogeology ; Aquifers ; Wells ; Saline water ; Pipes ; Participatory approaches ; Cooperation / Northern Kenya / Habaswein-Wajir Water Supply Project / Merti Aquifer
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047592)
(4.71 MB) (4.71 MB)
Decision-making in development rarely considers uncertainty in project benefits and costs and the risk of project failure. Lack of appropriate tools for ex-ante analysis under conditions of data scarcity constrains the ability of decision-makers to anticipate project outcomes. Business analysis techniques can help in such situations, but they have rarely been applied in development contexts. We use the principles of Applied Information Economics to develop a decision model for a water supply intervention. In the proposed Habaswein-Wajir Water Supply Project in Northern Kenya, water is to be extracted from a major aquifer near Habaswein and piped to the city of Wajir. A team of eight experts developed a model including all costs, benefits, and risks considered important for project success. After estimation training, these experts expressed their uncertainty for about 100 variables in the model with probability distributions. We used Monte Carlo simulation to project decision outcomes, and Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression to identify critical uncertainties affecting the decision. The project was found to be risky for most stakeholders, mainly due to the risk of political interference caused by water supply concerns in Habaswein and due to unclear profitability of the water supply business. Uncertainties about how to value decreasing infant mortality and reduction in water-borne disease incidence were also critical. The greatest hydrological risk was salt water intrusion into the aquifer. Careful well design, inclusive project planning and benefit sharing could raise the chance of project success. The analysis improved understanding of the decision by all stakeholders, some of which changed their opinions on the pipeline, requested more measurements, or proposed alternative water supply options. Decision analysis can help clarify decision uncertainties and outcome expectations and thereby improve decision-making processes, especially in data-scarce areas.
2 Aynekulu, E.; Mekuria, Wolde; Tsegaye, D.; Feyissa, K.; Angassa, A.; de Leeuw, J.; Shepherd, K. 2017. Long-term livestock exclosure did not affect soil carbon in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Geoderma, 307:1-7. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2017.07.030]
Grassland management ; Rangelands ; Carbon sequestration ; Soil sampling ; Soil properties ; Land degradation ; Ecosystem services ; Dry season ; Semiarid zones ; Savannas / Ethiopia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048465)
Controlled grazing management is considered as an effective strategy to enhance soil carbon sequestration, but empirical evidences are scarce. Particularly, the role of livestock exclusion related to soil carbon sequestration is not well understood in arid and semiarid savannas of Africa. We investigated the effectiveness of long-term (14–36 years old) exclosures in enhancing soil carbon in the semiarid savanna, southern Ethiopia. We tested for differences in soil carbon content between exclosures and adjacent open-grazed rangelands, while accounting for effects of age of exclosures and soil depths. We collected soil samples at two soil depths (0–20 cm and 20–50 cm depths) from 96 plots from 12 exclosure and adjacent open grazing sites. We found no significant differences (P > 0.05) between exclosures and adjacent open-grazed rangelands in soil carbon content in both soil depths. The age chronosequence further suggested a weak non-linear trend in increasing soil carbon content with increasing duration of exclosures. These results thus challenge the opinion that controlled grazing enhances soil carbon sequestration in semiarid savannas. However, we remain cautious in regard to the conclusiveness of these findings given the paucity of information regarding other confounding factors which may disentangle the effects of the exclosure, and most importantly in the absence of soil data prior to exclosures.
3 Dixon, J.; Boffa, J.-M.; Williams, Timothy Olalekan; de Leeuw, J.; Fischer, G.; van Velthuizen, H. 2020. Farming and food systems potentials. In Dixon, J.; Garrity, D. P.; Boffa, J.-M.; Williams, Timothy Olalekan; Amede, T.; Auricht, C.; Lott, R.; Mburathi, G. (Eds.). Farming systems and food security in Africa: priorities for science and policy under global change. Oxon, UK: Routledge - Earthscan. pp.535-561. (Earthscan Food and Agriculture Series)
Farming systems ; Food systems ; Food security ; Nutrition security ; Agricultural productivity ; Yield gap ; Intensification ; Diversification ; Agricultural population ; Farmers ; Farm size ; Nonfarm income ; Livestock ; Market access ; Poverty ; Households ; Living standards ; Labour mobility ; Strategies ; Institutions ; Policies ; Technology ; Natural resources management ; Ecosystem services / Sahel / Africa South of Sahara / West Africa / East Africa / Southern Africa / Central Africa / Middle East / North Africa
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049741)
http://old.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/Publications/PDFS/BC20009.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049741.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049741.pdf
(0.18 MB) (181 KB)
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