Your search found 2 records
1 Reinhardt, J.; Liersch, S.; Abdeladhim, M. A.; Diallo, M.; Dickens, Chris; Fournet, S.; Hattermann, F. F.; Kabaseke, C.; Muhumuza, M.; Mul, Marloes L.; Pilz, T.; Otto, I. M.; Walz, A. 2018. Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa. Ecology and Society, 23(1):1-34. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09728-230105]
Natural resources management ; Participatory research ; Sustainability ; Assessment ; Stakeholders ; Watersheds ; River basins ; Political aspects ; Case studies / South Africa / Tunisia / Uganda / Mali / Oum Zessar Watershed / Rwenzori Region / Inner Niger Delta / Upper Thukela Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048530)
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol23/iss1/art5/ES-2017-9728.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H048530.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H048530.pdf
(2.43 MB)
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
2 Liersch, S.; Fournet, S.; Koch, H.; Djibo, A. G.; Reinhardt, J.; Kortlandt, J.; Van Weert, F.; Seidou, O; Klop, E; Baker, C.; Hattermann, F. F. 2019. Water resources planning in the upper Niger River basin: are there gaps between water demand and supply? Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 21:176-194. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.006]
Water resources ; Planning ; Water demand ; Water supply ; Reservoirs ; Dams ; Irrigation management ; Climate change ; Forecasting ; Irrigation schemes ; Hydropower ; Water use efficiency ; River basins ; Government agencies ; Hydrology ; Models ; Uncertainty / West Africa / Mali / Niger River Basin / Bani River Basin / Inner Niger Delta / Selingue Dam / Fomi Dam
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049514)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818301939/pdfft?md5=7c0f02d2fcba4adeea01f4450d78823f&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581818301939-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049514.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049514.pdf
(10.00 MB) (10.0 MB)
Study region
The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa.
Study focus
The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons.
New hydrological insights for the region
Today’s irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam.
The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa.
Study focus
The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons.
New hydrological insights for the region
Today’s irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam.
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