Your search found 5 records
1 Vermeulen, S. J.; Aggarwal, Pramod; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B. M.; Challinor, A. J.; Hansen, J. W.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G. C.; Thornton, P. K.; Wollenberg, E. 2012. Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change. Environmental Science and Policy, 15(1):136-144. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.09.003]
Climate change ; Risks ; Food security ; Adaptation ; Agricultural production ; Greenhouse gases ; Policy
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H044598)
(0.38 MB)
Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current knowledge on options to support farmers, particularly smallholder farmers, in achieving food security through agriculture under climate change. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems, and (2) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets. Maximization of agriculture’s mitigation potential will require investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent, broad-based action in spite of uncertainties.
2 Vermeulen, S. J.; Aggarwal, Pramod; Ainslie, A.; Angelone, C.; Campbell, B. M.; Challinor, A. J.; Hansen, J. W.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jarvis, A.; Kristjanson, P.; Lau, C.; Nelson, G. C.; Thornton, P. K.; Wollenberg, E. 2010. Agriculture, food security and climate change: outlook for knowledge, tools and action. Background paper prepared for The Hague Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change, 31 October - 5 November 2010. Copenhagen, Denmark: CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). 16p.
Agriculture ; Food security ; Climate change ; Risks ; Models ; Greenhouse gases ; Policy ; Smallholders
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H044643)
http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ccafs_report_3-low-res_final.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H044643.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H044643.pdf
(0.37 MB) (378.60KB)
Agriculture and food security are key sectors for intervention under climate change. Agricultural production is highly vulnerable even to 2C (low-end) predictions for global mean temperatures in 2100, with major implications for rural poverty and for both rural and urban food security. Agriculture also presents untapped opportunities for mitigation, given the large land area under crops and rangeland, and the additional mitigation potential of aquaculture. This paper presents a summary of current scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on farming and food systems, and on the implications for adaptation and mitigation. Many of the trends and impacts are highly uncertain at a range of spatial and temporal scales; we need significant advances in predicting how climate variability and change will affect future food security. Despite these uncertainties, it is clear that the magnitude and rate of projected changes will require adaptation. Actions towards adaptation fall into two broad overlapping areas: (1) better management of agricultural risks associated with increasing climate variability and extreme events, for example improved climate information services and safety nets, and (2) accelerated adaptation to progressive climate change over decadal time scales, for example integrated packages of technology, agronomy and policy options for farmers and food systems.Maximization of agriculture’s mitigation potential will require, among others, investments in technological innovation and agricultural intensification linked to increased efficiency of inputs, and creation of incentives and monitoring systems that are inclusive of smallholder farmers. The challenges posed by climate change to agriculture and food security require a holistic and strategic approach to linking knowledge with action. Key elements of this are greater interactions between decision-makers and researchers in all sectors, greater collaboration among climate, agriculture and food security communities, and consideration of interdependencies across whole food systems and landscapes. Food systems faced with climate change need urgent action in spite of uncertainties.
3 Vermeulen, S. J.; Challinor, A. J.; Thornton, P. K.; Campbell, B. M.; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, J; Kinyangi, J.; Jarvis, A.; Laderach, P.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Nicklin, K. J.; Hawkins, E.; Smith, D. R. 2013. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(21): 8357-8362.
Climate change ; Adaptation ; Uncertainty ; Agriculture ; Food security ; Developing countries ; Coffee ; Models ; Case studies ; Stakeholders ; Decision making ; Greenhouse gases / Sri Lanka / East Africa / Central America
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H045835)
(0.90 MB) (921.17KB)
We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterisation of uncertainty. Two cases, on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa, show how the relative utility of ‘capacity’ versus ‘impact’ approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. A further two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision-making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental versus transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterised at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that ‘impact’ approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.
4 Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rotter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, Pramod Kumar; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A-K.; Muller, C.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Rezaei, E. E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stockle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change, 5:143-147. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H046906)
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
5 Rojas, M.; Lambert, F.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Challinor, A. J.. 2019. Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(14):6673-6678. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1811463116]
Climate change adaptation ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Agriculture ; Crop production ; Maize ; Wheat ; Rice ; Soybeans ; Forecasting ; Models
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049136)
(1.83 MB)
A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14% (3–31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.
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