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1 Cools, J.; Johnston, Robyn; Hattermann, F. F.; Douven, W.; Zsuffa, I. 2013. Tools for wetland management: lessons learnt from a comparative assessment. Environmental Science and Policy, 34:138-145. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2013.01.013]
Wetlands ; River basin management ; Ecosystem services ; Assessment ; Stakeholders ; Decision making ; Case studies / Europe / Latin America / South Africa / Austria / Hungary / Uganda / Mali / Ecuador
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H046247)
(0.62 MB)
This paper provides the synthesis of the special issue on the ‘‘role of wetlands in river basin management’’ and reviews lessons learnt from a comparative assessment of the presented case studies in Europe, Africa and Latin-America. Although wetlands are important for local communities and biodiversity, the services and products they deliver for local livelihoods and river basins are insufficiently known, and inadequately valued and understood by authorities. Wetlands are too often perceived as standalone elements and poorly integrated into river basin management plans. In this volume, an analytical framework is developed to formulate and compare wetland management options, also in data-poor contexts and to bridge the gap between science and policy. The framework is a set of tools and processes to structure the information flows needed to identify and score management options in terms of their impact, feasibility, vulnerability to future changes and trade-offs. In practice, it was found that the framework provided a useful set of tools to promote understanding and underpin negotiations. The major barrier for a better integration of wetlands in river basin management was found to be the lack of understanding of what the important issues were and the institutional capacity to organise cooperation and consequent implementation of the agreed plans. This paper presents the following conclusions. Firstly, rapid assessment tools and simplified scoring methods were used and proved useful in explaining issues across sectors and scales, and were important in creating mutual understanding, even though they did not necessarily present new insights for local or disciplinary experts. Secondly, in order to improve the knowledge base, an integrated database is developed, especially with regard to water quantity simulation at the river basin scale and wetland scale, potential habitat availability and the quantification of adaptive and institutional capacity, including the impact of future changes. Data has been compiled from various, scattered sources, including global data sets, sectoral wetland and/or river basin-specific quantitative and qualitative data sets. Thirdly, in case of limited data availability, rather than improving the accuracy of available quantitative data, it is proposed to better use alternative qualitative sources of data, from local experts, authority representatives and wetland users.
2 Reinhardt, J.; Liersch, S.; Abdeladhim, M. A.; Diallo, M.; Dickens, Chris; Fournet, S.; Hattermann, F. F.; Kabaseke, C.; Muhumuza, M.; Mul, Marloes L.; Pilz, T.; Otto, I. M.; Walz, A. 2018. Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa. Ecology and Society, 23(1):1-34. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09728-230105]
Natural resources management ; Participatory research ; Sustainability ; Assessment ; Stakeholders ; Watersheds ; River basins ; Political aspects ; Case studies / South Africa / Tunisia / Uganda / Mali / Oum Zessar Watershed / Rwenzori Region / Inner Niger Delta / Upper Thukela Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048530)
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol23/iss1/art5/ES-2017-9728.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H048530.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H048530.pdf
(2.43 MB)
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
3 Liersch, S.; Fournet, S.; Koch, H.; Djibo, A. G.; Reinhardt, J.; Kortlandt, J.; Van Weert, F.; Seidou, O; Klop, E; Baker, C.; Hattermann, F. F.. 2019. Water resources planning in the upper Niger River basin: are there gaps between water demand and supply? Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 21:176-194. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2018.12.006]
Water resources ; Planning ; Water demand ; Water supply ; Reservoirs ; Dams ; Irrigation management ; Climate change ; Forecasting ; Irrigation schemes ; Hydropower ; Water use efficiency ; River basins ; Government agencies ; Hydrology ; Models ; Uncertainty / West Africa / Mali / Niger River Basin / Bani River Basin / Inner Niger Delta / Selingue Dam / Fomi Dam
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049514)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581818301939/pdfft?md5=7c0f02d2fcba4adeea01f4450d78823f&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581818301939-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049514.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049514.pdf
(10.00 MB) (10.0 MB)
Study region
The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa.
Study focus
The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons.
New hydrological insights for the region
Today’s irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam.
The Upper Niger and Bani River basins in West Africa.
Study focus
The growing demand for food, water, and energy led Mali and Guinea to develop ambitious hydropower and irrigation plans, including the construction of a new dam and the extension of irrigation schemes. These two developments will take place upstream of sensible ecosystem hotspots while the feasibility of development plans in terms of water availability and sustainability is questionable. Where agricultural development in past decades focused mainly on intensifying dry-season crops cultivation, future plans include extension in both the dry and wet seasons.
New hydrological insights for the region
Today’s irrigation demand corresponds to 7% of the average annual Niger discharge and could account to one third in 2045. An extension of irrigated agriculture is possible in the wet season, while extending dry-season cropping would be largely compromised with the one major existing Sélingué dam. An additional large Fomi or Moussako dam would not completely satisfy dry-season irrigation demands in the 2045 scenario but would reduce the estimated supply gap from 36% to 14%. However, discharge peaks may decrease by 40% reducing the inundated area in the Inner Niger Delta by 21%, while average annual discharge decreases by 30%. Sustainable development should therefore consider investments in water-saving irrigation and management practices to enhance the feasibility of the envisaged irrigation plans instead of completely relying on the construction of a flow regime altering dam.
4 Didovets, I.; Lobanova, A.; Krysanova, V.; Menz, C.; Babagalieva, Z.; Nurbatsina, A.; Gavrilenko, N.; Khamidov, V.; Umirbekov, A.; Qodirov, S.; Muhyyew, D.; Hattermann, F. F.. 2021. Central Asian rivers under climate change: impacts assessment in eight representative catchments. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 34:100779. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100779]
River basins ; Catchment areas ; Climate change ; Impact assessment ; Water resources ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Discharges ; Hydrology ; Modelling ; Uncertainty ; Forecasting / Central Asia / Kazakhstan / Kyrgyzstan / Uzbekistan / Tajikistan / Turkmenistan / Amu Darya Basin / Syr Darya Basin / Zhabay River / Bukhtarma River / Aspara River / Isfara River / Zeravshan River / Tupalang River / Kafirnigan River / Murghab River
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050338)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581821000082/pdfft?md5=8ac73d1cad07d086db1a6bbdd6b5b485&pid=1-s2.0-S2214581821000082-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050338.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050338.pdf
(9.84 MB) (9.84 MB)
Study region: Eight river catchments within Central Asia.
Study focus: The limited amount of water resources is already an issue in the Central Asian region, and climate change may be crucial for water availability and development of countries in the region. This study investigates potential climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia to the end of the century by focusing on eight river catchments with diverse natural conditions located in different countries. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was setup, calibrated and validated for all selected catchments under study. Scenarios from five bias-corrected GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological model.
New hydrological insights for the region: The results show an increase of mean annual temperature in all catchments for both RCPs to the end of the century. The projected changes in annual precipitation indicate a clear trend to increase in the Zhabay and to decrease in the Murghab catchments, and for other catchments, they were smaller.
The projected trends for river discharge are similar to those of precipitation, with an increase in the north and decrease in the south of the study region. Seasonal changes are characterized by a shift in the peak of river discharge up to one month, shortage of snow accumulation period, and reduction of discharge in summer months.
Study focus: The limited amount of water resources is already an issue in the Central Asian region, and climate change may be crucial for water availability and development of countries in the region. This study investigates potential climate change impacts on water resources in Central Asia to the end of the century by focusing on eight river catchments with diverse natural conditions located in different countries. The eco-hydrological model SWIM was setup, calibrated and validated for all selected catchments under study. Scenarios from five bias-corrected GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological model.
New hydrological insights for the region: The results show an increase of mean annual temperature in all catchments for both RCPs to the end of the century. The projected changes in annual precipitation indicate a clear trend to increase in the Zhabay and to decrease in the Murghab catchments, and for other catchments, they were smaller.
The projected trends for river discharge are similar to those of precipitation, with an increase in the north and decrease in the south of the study region. Seasonal changes are characterized by a shift in the peak of river discharge up to one month, shortage of snow accumulation period, and reduction of discharge in summer months.
5 Drews, M.; Steinhausen, M.; Larsen, M. A. D.; Domgaard, M. L.; Huszti, L.; Racz, T.; Wortmann, M.; Hattermann, F. F.; Schroter, K. 2023. The utility of using Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) for evaluating pluvial flood models. Science of The Total Environment, 894:164962. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164962]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052046)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969723035854/pdfft?md5=ad7860c6af4f6b0c460c8d00e2b4c3d6&pid=1-s2.0-S0048969723035854-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052046.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052046.pdf
(4.40 MB) (4.40 MB)
Pluvial floods are increasingly threatening urban environments worldwide due to human-induced climate change. High-resolution, state-of-the-art pluvial flood models are urgently needed to inform climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures but are generally not empirically tested because of the rarity of local high-intensity precipitation events and the lack of monitoring capabilities. Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) collected by professionals, non-professionals and citizens and made available on the internet can be used to monitor the dynamic extent of a pluvial flood during and after an extreme rain event but is sometimes considered to be unreliable. In this paper, we explore the general utility of VGI to evaluate the performance of pluvial flood models and gain new insights to improve these models. As background for our research, we use the capital city of Budapest, which recently suffered three heavy rainfall events in just five years (2015, 2017 and 2020). For each pluvial flood event, we collected photographic evidence from different online media sources and estimated the associated water depths at various locations in the city from the image context. These were compared with the results of a 2D pluvial flood model that has been shown to provide comparable results to other state-of-the-art inundation models and is easily transferred to other urban areas due to its reliance on open data sources. We introduce a general methodology for comparing VGI with model data by probing different spatial resolutions. Our findings highlight untapped potential and fundamental challenges in using VGI for model evaluation. It is proposed that VGI may become an essential tool and improve the confidence in model-based risk assessments for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
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