Your search found 46 records
1 Lal, R.; Sivakumar, M. V. K.; Faiz, S. M. A.; Rahman, A. H. M. M.; Islam, K. R. (Eds.) 2010. Climate change and food security in South Asia. New York, NY, USA: Springer. 600p.
Climate change ; Adaptation ; Global warming ; Glaciers ; Food security ; Water storage ; Soil degradation ; Carbon cycle ; Erosion ; Solar energy ; Greenhouse effect ; Land management ; Land use ; Food production ; Population growth ; Fisheries ; Aquaculture ; Irrigation management ; Crop production ; Rice ; Farming systems ; Cereals ; Pests ; Models ; Sea level ; Waste management ; Composting ; Forest management ; Economic impact ; Epidemiology / South Asia / India / Australia / Bangladesh / Himalayas
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 338.19 G570 LAL Record No: H043442)
(0.38 MB)
2 Bradley, R. 2011. Mountain glaciers face the heat. Global Change, 76:30-33.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H043835)
(0.63 MB) (640KB)
3 Strahler, A.; Strahler, A. 1997. Physical geography, science and systems of the human environment. New York, NY, USA: John Wiley. 637p.
Geography ; Electromagnetic radiation ; Ozone layer ; Ozone depletion ; Air temperature ; Relative humidity ; Precipitation ; Water balance ; Air pollution ; Winds ; Weather ; Climate ; Latitude ; Altitude ; Land degradation ; Rain ; Greenhouse effect ; Earthquakes ; Landforms ; Groundwater management ; Glaciers ; Ecosystems ; Mapping ; Remote sensing ; GIS ; Soil classification
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 910 G000 STR Record No: H043932)
(0.19 MB)
4 Sharma, Bharat; de Condappa, D.; Bharati, Luna. 2011. Opportunities for harnessing the increased contribution of glacier and snowmelt flows in the Ganges Basin. Keynote speech presented at the International Conference on Cooperation on the Ganges: Barriers, Myths, and Opportunities, Institute of Water Policy, LKY School, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 13-14 November 2010. 16p.
River basins ; Climate change ; Glaciers ; Snowmelt ; Environmental temperature ; Upstream ; Downstream ; Mountains / South Asia / India / Nepal / Bangladesh / Ganges River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H044143)
(0.71 MB)
The topography of Ganges basin (GB) is much contrasted with upstream steep mountainous region of the Himalayas and downstream large fertile plains in eastern India and Bangladesh. The Himalays are partly covered by snow and glaciers that seasonally release water to the river network of GB and provide cushion against the annual fluctuations. The contribution from the glaciers to the streamflows is supposed to be significant although spatilly distributed quantification is unavailable. Moreover, there is uncertainity on the impact of climate change on glaciers and the resultant streamflows. We set up an application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)model which contained an experimental glaciers module that accounts for snow and glaciers processes in the GB. The model also examined the possible impacts of an increase in temperature of +1, +2 or +3 degree Celsius over 20 years of the simulation period (1982-2002). The average annual stream flows in the GB that comes from melting of snow and ice in glaciated areas is significant (60-75%) in the Upper Ganga and in the Nepalese sub-basins. The share, however, reduces significantly further downstream, falling to about 19% at Farakka as flows from glaciated areas are diluted by streamflows generated by rainfall/ runoff processes. Climate change-induced rise in temperature logically increases the quantity of snow and ice that melts in glaciated areas , causing an augmentation of streamflows. However, this impact decreases from upstream ( +8% to +26% at Tehri Dam in Uttaranchal in India) to downstream (+1% to +4% at Farakka in West Bengal). Such increases in streamflows may create flood events more frequently or of higher magnitude in the Upper Ganga or in the mountainous sub-basins. In terms of water use, most of the extra water from glaciated areas do not flow when water is most required i.e. during the lean flow winter and early summer season. Potential strategy to exploit this additional water may include construction of new dams/ reservoir storages that could be used locally or within the transboundary agreements or to capture this extra water just at the end of the dry season (April-June) when flows from glaciated areas become noticeable. Enhancing the development of groundwater in the basin (from the present low level of ~ 30 per cent) through managed aquifer recharge and other suitable options shall be an equally viable option. The riparian states within India and India-Nepal- Bangladesh may harness this opportunity to alleviate physical water scarcity and transboundary water conflicts.
5 Joshi, P. K.; Singh, T. P. 2011. Geoinformatics for climate change studies. New Delhi, India: The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). 470p.
Remote sensing ; GIS ; Climate change ; Environmental temperature ; Global warming ; Models ; Mountains ; Glaciers ; Forests ; Ecosystems ; Phenology ; Mapping ; Sea level ; Water management ; Evapotranspiration ; Land degradation ; Satellite imagery ; Natural disasters ; Landslides ; Flooding ; Wildfires ; Risk reduction ; Research ; Greenhouse gases ; Vegetation ; Invasive species ; River basins ; Health hazards ; Waterborne diseases ; Diarrhoea ; Malaria ; Land degradation ; Data analysis / South Africa / Nigeria / Bangladesh / Morocco / Germany / Thailand / Malaysia / Australia / Eastern Cape Province / Mooi River Basin / Weida River Basin / Murray Darling River Basin / Thuringia / Chang Mai / Kanchanaburi
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 621.3678 G000 JOS Record No: H044290)
(0.33 MB)
6 World Economic Forum Water Initiative. 2011. Water security: the water-food-energy-climate nexus. Washington, DC, USA: Island Press. 248p.
Water management ; Water resources development ; International cooperation ; Water security ; Water demand ; Water scarcity ; Water supply ; Water productivity ; Risk assessment ; Energy ; Economic growth ; Trade ; Economic aspects ; Investment ; Financing ; Climate change ; Agriculture ; Food security ; International waters ; Socioeconomic environment ; Sanitation ; Desalinization ; Property rights ; Glaciers ; Ecosystems ; Urban areas ; Social aspects ; Electricity supplies ; Non governmental organizations ; Decision making / Saudi Arabia / Oman / Jordan / Pakistan / Kenya / China / USA / Asia / India / South Africa / California
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 333.91 G000 WOR Record No: H044749)
(0.58 MB)
7 Moors, E. J.; Groot, A.; van Scheltinga, C. T.; Siderius, C.; Stoffel, M; Huggel, C.; Wiltshire, A.; Mathison, C.; Ridley, J.; Jacob, D.; Kumar, P.; Bhadwal, S.; Gosain, A.; Collins, D. N. 2011. Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin northern India. Environmental Science and Policy, 14:758-769.
Water resources ; Water demand ; Climate change ; Adaptation ; Water availability ; River basins ; Glaciers ; Runoff ; Lowland / India / Ganges basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H045015)
(1.02 MB)
An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales. The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 8C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change. Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling groundwater levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply.
8 Sharma, Bharat. 2013. Impact of climate change on water resources and potential adaptations for Indian agriculture. Annals of Agricultural Research, 34(1):1-14.
Climate change ; Adaptation ; Rainfed farming ; Water resources ; Groundwater ; Aquifers ; River basins ; Flooding ; Rain ; Drought ; Glaciers / India
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H045853)
(0.11 MB)
Indian agriculture is the largest user of rainfall, surface and groundwater resources. Some of the large river systems feedings the canal systems and the groundwater aquifers, like the Indus, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and their several tributaries have their origin in the Himalayas. A large part of the discharge of these river systems is fed through melting of the snow and glaciers. Although there is a lack of adequate scientific evidence on regional scales, a number of recent observational and modelling studies do suggest that the climate is changing. According to IPCC, the most significant consequences of climate change will be its impact on the hydrologic cycle, as already experienced in many parts of the world including India. Changes in precipitation intensity and duration will probably be the main factors altering the hydrologic cycle leading to more floods and droughts. Availability or scarcity of water will vary greatly depending on the region. The impact of climate change will be greater in India, where a majority of the rural population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, and where agriculture is primarily dependent on the monsoons. Governments and communities have not been able to adequately address climate related challenges to people's livelihoods that follow from changes in water availability, loss of crops and income with the occurrence of extreme weather events like floods and droughts. After a brief introduction to the importance of the subject, this paper describes in detail the impact of climate change on water resources in India, with special reference to the Indus and the Ganges River systems which constitute the major food basket of the country. The impacts of climate change on agriculture sector, including the rainfed agriculture have been presented. An analysis of the potential opportunities presented by enhanced flows for the surface systems and recharge for the groundwater aquifers has been presented and the paper concludes by presenting adaptive mechanisms in the agriculture sector and the important recommendations for improving institutional capacity, development and management of water resources, adaptation to floods and prevention and management of droughts.
9 Savoskul, Oxana S.; Smakhtin, Vladimir. 2013. Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: water storage properties under changing climate. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 61p. (IWMI Research Report 149) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5337/2013.203]
Glaciers ; Monitoring ; Seasonality ; Snow cover ; River basins ; Climate change ; Impact assessment ; Remote sensing ; Water resources ; Water availability ; Water storage ; Hydrological cycle ; Mountains ; Surveys ; Models ; Institutions / Asia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: IWMI Record No: H045908)
(1.75MB)
This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the water storage properties of glaciers and seasonal snow, carried out for the first time at a major river basin scale, for the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Amu Darya, Syr Darya and Mekong basins. It analyzes the changes of glaciers and snow under recent climate change, i.e., between the baseline (1961-1990) and current (2001-2010) periods. The paper also addresses climate change sensitivity of glacier systems and the changes that might be expected under a warming scenario for the end of the twenty-first century.
10 Savoskul, Oxana S.; Smakhtin, Vladimir. 2013. Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: hydrological role under changing climate. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 45p. (IWMI Research Report 150) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5337/2013.204]
Glaciers ; Runoff ; Snowmelt ; Snow cover ; Melt water ; Assessment ; Seasonal variation ; Water resources ; Groundwater recharge ; Aquifers ; River basins ; Catchment areas ; Flow discharge ; Hydrological cycle ; Climate change ; Precipitation ; Simulation models / Asia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: IWMI Record No: H045909)
(1.12MB)
The hydrological roles of glaciers and seasonal snow in the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Amu Darya, Syr Darya and Mekong basins are, for the first time, assessed comprehensively at a major river basin scale in this paper. Contribution of glacier runoff, subdivided into renewable and nonrenewable components, and seasonal snowmelt to mean annual flow is evaluated for two time slices: 1961-1990 and 2001-2010. The recent changes of the hydrological roles of glaciers and snow, and the most likely changes of those under future climate change are analyzed.
11 Immerzeel, W. W.; Pellicciotti, F.; Bierkens, M. F. P. 2013. Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds. Nature Geoscience, 6:742-745. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1896]
River basins ; Flow discharge ; Runoff ; Glaciers ; Watersheds ; Climate change ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Snow cover / Asia / Himalayan Watersheds
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H046051)
(1.86 MB)
Greater Himalayan glaciers are retreating and losing mass at rates comparable to glaciers in other regions of the world 1–5. Assessments of future changes and their associated hydrological impacts are scarce, oversimplify glacier dynamics or include a limited number of climate models6–9. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a high-resolution glacio-hydrological model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change on two climatically contrasting watersheds in the Greater Himalaya, the Baltoro and Langtang watersheds that drain into the Indus and Ganges rivers, respectively. We show that the largest uncertainty in future runoff is a result of variations in projected precipitation between climate models. In both watersheds, strong, but highly variable, increases in future runoff are projected and, despite the different characteristics of the watersheds, their responses are surprisingly similar. In both cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff is on a rising limb at least until 2050. In combination with a positive change in precipitation, water availability during this century is not likely to decline.We conclude that river basins that depend on monsoon rains and glacier melt will continue to sustain the increasing water demands expected in these areas.
12 Sharma, Bharat R.; de Condappa, D. 2013. Opportunities for harnessing the increased contribution of glacier and snowmelt flows in the Ganges basin. Water Policy, 15(S1):9-25. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2013.008]
Climate change ; Temperature ; Glaciers ; Snowmelt ; River basins ; Aquifers ; Dams ; Models ; Water scarcity ; Water resources ; Stream flow ; Upstream ; Downstream / India / Bangladesh / Ganges Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: PER Record No: H046155)
(0.51 MB)
The topography of the Ganges basin is highly variable, with the steep mountainous region of the Himalaya upstream and the large fertile plains in eastern India and Bangladesh downstream. The contribution from the glaciers to streamflows is supposed to be significant but there is uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate change on glaciers. An application of the Water Evaluation and Planning model was set up which contained an experimental glaciers module. The model also examined the possible impacts of an increase in temperature. The contribution from glaciated areas is significant (60–75%) in the Upper Ganges but reduces downstream, falling to about 19% at Farakka. Climate change-induced rise in temperature logically increases the quantity of snow and ice that melts in glaciated areas. However, this impact decreases from upstream (þ8% to þ26% at Tehri dam) to downstream (þ1% to þ4% at Farakka). Such increases in streamflows may create flood events more frequently, or of higher magnitude, in the upper reaches. Potential strategies to exploit this additional water may include the construction of new dams/reservoir storage and the development of groundwater in the basin through managed aquifer recharge. The riparian states of India, Nepal and Bangladesh could harness this opportunity to alleviate physical water scarcity and improve productivity.
13 Bhandari, B. B. 2009. Wise use of wetlands in Nepal. Banko Janakari, 2009(Special issue):10-17.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: P 8145 Record No: H046174)
http://www.nepjol.info/index.php/BANKO/article/download/2206/2028
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H046174.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H046174.pdf
(0.21 MB)
14 Kogan, F.; Powell, A. M. Jr.; Fedorov, O. (Eds.) 2009. Use of satellite and In-Situ data to improve sustainability: Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Using Satellite Data and In-Situ Data to Improve Sustainability, Kiev, Ukraine, 9-12 June 2009. 313p. (NATO Science for Peace and Security Series - C: Environmental Security)
Meteorological satellites ; Satellite surveys ; Data collection ; Sustainability ; Agrometeorology ; Monitoring ; Environmental effects ; Climate change ; Natural disasters ; Drought ; Flooding ; Rain ; Temperature ; Glaciers ; Snow cover ; Earthquakes ; Ecosystems ; Magnetic field ; Land cover ; Pastures ; Crop production ; Grain crops ; Food security ; Health ; Vegetation ; Remote sensing ; GIS ; Models ; Energy balance ; Biomass ; Precipitation ; Evapotranspiration ; Coastal area ; Air pollution ; Nitrogen oxides ; Emission / Ukraine / Russia / Mongolia / Africa South of Sahara
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: 384.51 G000 KOG Record No: H046311)
(0.46 MB)
15 Tahir, A. A.; Chevallier, P.; Arnaud, Y.; Ashraf, M.; Bhatti, Muhammad Tousif. 2015. Snow cover trend and hydrological characteristics of the Astore River basin (Western Himalayas) and its comparison to the Hunza basin (Karakoram region) Science of the Total Environment, 505:748-761. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.065]
Snow cover ; Glaciers ; Snowmelt ; Hydrological regime ; River basins ; Climatic data ; Meteorological stations ; Satellite observation ; Water resources ; Catchment areas / Pakistan / India / Western Himalayas / Karakoram Region / Indus River Basin / Astore River Basin / Hunza Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H046709)
(4.13 MB)
A large proportion of Pakistan's irrigation water supply is taken from the Upper Indus River Basin (UIB) in the Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindukush range. More than half of the annual flow in the UIB is contributed by five of its snow and glacier-fed sub-basins including the Astore (Western Himalaya — south latitude of the UIB) and Hunza (Central Karakoram — north latitude of the UIB) River basins. Studying the snow cover, its spatiotemporal change and the hydrological response of these sub-basins is important so as to better managewater resources. This paper compares new data from the Astore River basin (mean catchment elevation, 4100 m above sea level; m asl afterwards), obtained using MODIS satellite snow cover images, with data from a previouslystudied high-altitude basin, the Hunza (mean catchment elevation, 4650 m asl). The hydrological regime of this sub-catchment was analyzed using the hydrological and climate data available at different altitudes from the basin area. The results suggest that the UIB is a region undergoing a stable or slightly increasing trend of snow cover in the southern (Western Himalayas) and northern (Central Karakoram) parts. Discharge from the UIB is a combination of snow and glacier melt with rainfall-runoff at southern part, but snow and glacier melt are dominant at the northern part of the catchment. Similar snow cover trends (stable or slightly increasing) but different river flow trends (increasing in Astore and decreasing in Hunza) suggest a sub-catchment level study of the UIB to understand thoroughly its hydrological behavior for better flood forecasting and water resources management.
16 Finlayson, C. M.; McInnes, R. J.; Noble, I. R.; McCartney, Matthew P.; Lachassagne, P. 2015. How can water have a positive impact on climate change?. Book of Knowledge. Geneva, Switzerland: Danone; Evian; Ramsar: 46p.
Climate change ; Adaptation ; Sustainable development ; Water resources ; Water management ; Freshwater ; Water quality ; Evapotranspiration ; Soil moisture ; Erosion ; Stream flow ; Groundwater extraction ; Aquifers ; Living standards ; Permafrost areas ; Glaciers ; Sedimentation ; Hydrological cycle ; Carbon cycle ; Ecosystems ; Wetlands ; Catchment areas ; Organic matter ; Vegetation
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047348)
(20.29 MB)
17 Mukhopadhyay, B.; Khan, A. 2015. A reevaluation of the snowmelt and glacial melt in river flows within Upper Indus Basin and its significance in a changing climate. Journal of Hydrology, 527:119-132. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.045]
Climate change ; Glaciers ; Snowmelt ; River basins ; Flow discharge ; Watersheds ; Hydrological regime ; Valuation ; Temperature / Pakistan / Upper Indus Basin / Western Himalayas / Karakoram Mountains / Hindu Kush Region
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047441)
(5.03 MB)
The hydrograph separation method, previously proposed to quantify base flow, seasonal snowmelt, and glacial melt components in river flows within Upper Indus basin underestimates glacial melt component. This is particularly limiting for highly glacierized watersheds. The limitation has been corrected by a further refinement of the method. The results with the refined procedure are highly consistent with the physical characteristics such as hypsometry and glacier extents of the watershed even though the method itself is completely independent of the physical characteristics of the watershed where it is applied. Glacial melt far outweigh snowmelt in the rivers draining the Karakoram and Zanskar ranges. In the Karakoram, on an annualized basis, glacial melt proportion varies from 43% to 50% whereas snowmelt varies from 27% to 31%. On the other hand, snowmelt dominates over glacial melt in the rivers draining the western Greater Himalayas and the Hindu Kush. Here snowmelt percentage in river discharge varies from 31% to 53% whereas that of glacial melt ranges from 16% to 30%. In the main stem of Upper Indus River, snowmelt fraction in most cases is slightly greater than the glacial melt fraction. In the main stem, snowmelt percentage ranges from 35% to 44% whereas glacial melt percentage ranges from 25% to 36%. Upper Indus River just upstream of Tarbela Reservoir carries annual flows constituted of 70% melt water of which 26% is contributed by glacial melts and 44% by snowmelts. We also show that during the later part of twentieth century and continuing into the early part of twenty first century glacial melt contributions to river discharge has decreased compared to the previous decades. This phenomenon can be ascribed to either basin wide loss of glacial mass in the recent decades in the elevation range from where most of the glacial melt originates or glacier growth and stability due to either reduction in energy inputs or increase in precipitation or both at the high altitude bands wherefrom glacial melt water originates.
18 Savean, M.; Delclaux, F.; Chevallier, P.; Wagnon, P.; Gonga-Saholiariliva, N.; Sharma, R.; Neppel, L.; Arnaud, Y. 2015. Water budget on the Dudh Koshi River (Nepal): uncertainties on precipitation. Journal of Hydrology, 531(Part 3):850-862. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.10.040]
Water budget ; Water resources ; River basins ; Precipitation ; Uncertainty ; Snow cover ; Glaciers ; Hydrology ; Models ; Satellite observation ; Air temperature ; Evapotranspiration ; Discharges ; Hydrometeorology ; Mountains / Nepal / Central Himalaya / Dudh Koshi River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047603)
(1.47 MB)
Although vital for millions of inhabitants, Himalayan water resources remain currently poorly known, mainly because of uncertainties on hydro-meteorological measurements. In this study, the authors propose a new assessment of the water budget components of the Dudh Koshi River basin (3720 km2 , Eastern Nepal), taking into account the associated uncertainties. The water budget is studied through a cross analysis of field observations with the result of a daily hydrological conceptual distributed snow model. Both observed datasets of spatialized precipitations, interpolated with a co-kriging method, and of discharge, provided by the hydrological agency of Nepal, are completed by reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR) for air temperature and potential evapotranspiration, as well as satellite snow products (MOD10A2) giving the dynamics of the snow cover area. According to the observation, the water budget on the basin is significantly unbalanced; it is attributed to a large underestimation of precipitation, typical of high mountain areas. By contrast, the water budget simulated by the modeling approach is well balanced; it is due to an unrealistic overestimation of the glacier melt volume. A reversing method led to assess the precipitation underestimation at around 80% of the annual amount. After the correction of the daily precipitation by this ratio, the simulated fluxes of rainfall, icemelt, and snowmelt gave 63%, 29%, and 8% of the annual discharge, respectively. This basin-wide precipitation correction is likely to change in respect to topographic or geographic parameters, or in respect to seasons, but due to an insufficient knowledge of the precipitation spatial variability, this could not be investigated here, although this may significantly change the respective proportions for rain, ice or snow melt.
19 Li, H.; Xu, C.-Y.; Beldring, S.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Jain, S. K. 2016. Water resources under climate change in Himalayan basins. Water Resources Management, 30(2):843-859. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1194-5]
Climate change ; Water resources ; Forecasting ; Hydrology ; Glaciers ; Models ; River basins ; Runoff ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Population growth ; Uncertainty / India / Bhutan / Himalayan Basin / Chamkhar Chhu Basin / Beas Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047756)
(1.58 MB)
Climate change has significant implications for glaciers and water resources in the Himalayan region. There is an urgent need to improve our current knowledge and methods in quantifying changes in water resources in this region. This study uses an integrated approach that couples a hydrological model and a glacier retreat model to assess the future water resources for two Himalayan basins. They are the Chamkhar Chhu basin in Bhutan (Eastern Himalayas) and the Beas basin in India (Western Himalayas). The future climate is simulated by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for south Asia under three Representative Concentration Pathways (Rcp2.6, Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5). The six climate projections for the period 2010–2100 indicate significant warming effects; however, projected changes in precipitation are not consistent. Discrepancies in precipitation are noteworthy between the RCMs and greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. The glaciers in the Chamkhar Chhu basin are predicted to disappear or reduce to a small size before the 2050s, whereas the glaciers in the Beas basin are expected to lose mass before the 2060s, and afterwards to gain mass under Rcp2.6 and Rcp4.5, or to melt at a high rate under Rcp8.5. The available water resources per capita of two basins are projected to decrease in the period 2010–2050. The decreasing water resources are jointly induced by climate change and population growth. The latter is responsible for roughly 40 % of the water declines. Both basins are facing water shortages at present and the water shortages will intensify in the future.
20 White, C. J.; Tanton, T. W.; Rycroft, D. W. 2014. The impact of climate change on the water resources of the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. Water Resources Management, 28(15):5267-5281. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0716-x]
Water resources ; Climate change ; River basins ; Water availability ; Water demand ; Irrigated sites ; Models ; Forecasting ; Temperature ; Precipitation ; Seasonality ; Glaciers ; Runoff ; Meltwater ; Discharges / Central Asia / Amu Darya Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047762)
(2.85 MB)
Central Asia is facing an unprecedented juxtaposition of regional climate- and water-related issues, emphasised by a changing climate. We investigate the potential impact of long-term climate change on the availability of water resources in the Amu Darya River, one of the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea, and its effect on irrigation in the region. Using a water balance accounting model developed for the Amu Darya basin, we find that projected increases in summer temperatures of up to 5 °C by 2070–2099 under a high-emission scenario, combined with likely shifts in the seasonality of precipitation, would lead to an increase in crop water consumptive demand of between 10.6 and 16 % (or between 3.7 and 5.5 km3 y-1 ) relative to 1961–1990. By the end of the century, 34 to 49 % of the basin’s existing 3.4 million ha of irrigated land would go unirrigated in a 1:20 year drought. Runoff is also expected to decline by between 10 and 20 % on current levels, however contributions to river flows from unsustainable glacial retreat and snow-melt are likely to remain small. While the uncertainty surrounding the precipitation projections is high, the effect of increased temperatures on irrigation practices in the basin is more robust in the long-term.
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