Your search found 2 records
1 Kolusu, S. R.; Shamsudduha, M.; Todd, M. C.; Taylor, R. G.; Seddon, D.; Kashaigili, J. J.; Ebrahim, Girma Y.; Cuthbert, M. O.; Sorensen, J. P. R.; Villholth, Karen G.; MacDonald, A. M.; MacLeod, D. A. 2019. The El Nino event of 2015-2016: climate anomalies and their impact on groundwater resources in East and Southern Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 23: 1751-1762. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1751-2019]
El Nino ; Groundwater management ; Water resources ; Water storage ; Climate change ; Rainfall ; Drought ; Water balance ; Water levels ; Surface water ; Precipitation ; Evapotranspiration ; Satellite imagery ; Satellite observation / East Africa / SouthernAfrica / Limpopo Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049164)
https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/23/1751/2019/hess-23-1751-2019.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049164.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049164.pdf
(2.80 MB)
The impact of climate variability on groundwater storage has received limited attention despite widespread dependence on groundwater as a resource for drinking water, agriculture and industry. Here, we assess the climate anomalies that occurred over Southern Africa (SA) and East Africa, south of the Equator (EASE), during the major El Niño event of 2015–2016, and their associated impacts on groundwater storage, across scales, through analysis of in situ groundwater piezometry and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. At the continental scale, the El Niño of 2015–2016 was associated with a pronounced dipole of opposing rainfall anomalies over EASE and Southern Africa, north–south of ~12° S, a characteristic pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over Southern Africa the most intense drought event in the historical record occurred, based on an analysis of the cross-scale areal intensity of surface water balance anomalies (as represented by the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index – SPEI), with an estimated return period of at least 200 years and a best estimate of 260 years. Climate risks are changing, and we estimate that anthropogenic warming only (ignoring changes to other climate variables, e.g. precipitation) has approximately doubled the risk of such an extreme SPEI drought event. These surface water balance deficits suppressed groundwater recharge, leading to a substantial groundwater storage decline indicated by both GRACE satellite and piezometric data in the Limpopo basin. Conversely, over EASE during the 2015–2016 El Niño event, anomalously wet conditions were observed with an estimated return period of ~10 years, likely moderated by the absence of a strongly positive Indian Ocean zonal mode phase. The strong but not extreme rainy season increased groundwater storage, as shown by satellite GRACE data and rising groundwater levels observed at a site in central Tanzania. We note substantial uncertainties in separating groundwater from total water storage in GRACE data and show that consistency between GRACE and piezometric estimates of groundwater storage is apparent when spatial averaging scales are comparable. These results have implications for sustainable and climate-resilient groundwater resource management, including the potential for adaptive strategies, such as managed aquifer recharge during episodic recharge events.
2 Bhave, A. G.; Bulcock, L.; Dessai, S.; Conway, D.; Jewitt, G.; Dougill, A. J.; Kolusu, S. R.; Mkwambisi, D. 2020. Lake Malawi’s threshold behaviour: a stakeholder-informed model to simulate sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 584:124671. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124671]
Climate change ; Hydrology ; Forecasting ; Models ; Water resources ; Water balance ; Rain ; Stakeholders ; Reservoirs ; Rivers ; Lakes ; Catchment areas / Malawi / United Republic of Tanzania / Mozambique / Lake Malawi / Shire River
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049529)
(2.06 MB)
Over 90% of Malawi’s electricity generation and irrigation depend on Lake Malawi outflows into the Shire River. Recent lake level declines have raised concerns over future climate change impacts, including the risk of no outflows if the Lake Malawi Outflow Threshold (LMOT) is passed. Addressing calls for model co-production, we iteratively engage stakeholders in data collection, and eliciting local system insights and management priorities, to inform the development of a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model for the Lake Malawi Shire River Basin. We use a simple model setup and manual calibration to allow for data sparsity and limited documentation of historical management decisions. The model satisfactorily captures limited observed streamflow patterns of Lake Malawi tributaries and lake level variations for the period 1960–2009, however, small errors in lake level simulation significantly affect simulation of monthly outflows. The riparian countries, Malawi, Tanzania and Mozambique contribute approximately 55%, 41% and 4% respectively to lake inflows (1960–2009 average). Forced with 29 bias-corrected global climate model projections (2021–2050) and assuming no change in current operating rules of key infrastructure, the WEAP model simulates wide-ranging changes. These include much higher lake levels that would cause downstream floods, and much lower lake levels, including 11 projections that fall below the LMOT. Both outcomes would have major implications for downstream hydropower and irrigation. Future water management plans require identification and evaluation of strategies that can address multi-year shifts in lake levels and the uncertainty inherent in future climate and hydrological model outputs.
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