Your search found 3 records
1 Block, P. J.. 2008. Mitigating the effects of hydrologic variability in Ethiopia: an assessment of investments in agricultural and transportation infrastructure, energy and hydroclimatic forecasting. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. 53p. (CPWF Working Paper 001)
Models ; Climate change ; Hydrology ; Precipitation ; Irrigation ; Investment ; Water power ; Rainfed farming / Ethiopia / Blue Nile River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H042798)
https://cgspace.cgiar.org/bitstream/handle/10568/4019/1287402041_CPWF_Working_Paper_01.pdf?sequence=1
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H042798.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H042798.pdf
(2.43 MB) (2.42 MB)
2 Reis, J.; Culver, T. B.; Block, P. J.; McCartney, Matthew P. 2016. Evaluating the impact and uncertainty of reservoir operation for malaria control as the climate changes in Ethiopia. Climatic Change, 136(3):601-614. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1639-8]
Malaria ; Reservoir operation ; Climate change ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Evaporation ; Water levels ; Water resources ; Energy generation ; Irrigation ; Rainfall-runoff relationships ; Environmental flows / Ethiopia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047534)
(0.79 MB)
Promising environmental mechanisms to control malaria are presently underutilized. Water level fluctuations to interrupt larval development have recently been studied and proposed as a low-impact malaria intervention in Ethiopia. One impediment to implementing such new environmental policies is the uncertain impact of climate change on water resources, which could upend reservoir operation policies. Here we quantified the potential impact of the malaria management under future climate states. Simulated timeseries were constructed by resampling historical precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data (1994–2002), imposing a 2 °C temperature increase and precipitation changes with a range of ±20 %. Runoff was generated for each climate scenario using the model GR4J. The runoff was used as input into a calibrated HEC ResSim model of reservoir operations. The malaria operation management increased the baseline scenario median energy generation by 18.2 GWh y-1 and decreased the energy generation at the 0.5 percentile (during dry conditions) by 7.3 GWh y-1. In scenarios with -20 % precipitation, malaria control increased average annual energy generation by 1.3 GWh y-1 but only decreased the lowest 0.5 percentile of energy by 0.2 GWh y-1; the irrigation demand was not met on 8.5 more days, on average, per year. Applying the malaria control rule to scenarios with +20 % precipitation decreased the likelihood of flooding by an average of 1.0 day per year. While the malaria control would divert some water away from other reservoir operational goals, the intervention requires 3.3–3.7 % of the annual precipitation budget, which is much less than reduction from potential droughts.
3 Delorit, J. D.; Block, P. J.. 2020. Cooperative water trade as a hedge against scarcity: accounting for risk attitudes in the uptake of forecast-informed water option contracts. Journal of Hydrology, 583:124626. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124626]
Water market ; Options trading ; Cooperative marketing ; Water rights ; Risks ; Water scarcity ; Forecasting ; Farmers ; Irrigated farming ; Decision making ; Models ; Uncertainty / Chile / Elqui Valley
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049636)
(2.38 MB)
Season-ahead hydrologic forecasts hold the potential to inform water user decision making, provided forecast information offers value to targeted end-users, particularly in water-scarce regions. Yet, user willingness to trust forecast information is uncertain and often varied across similar user groups. Here, forecast uptake by agriculture users in semi-arid water rights managed basins is modelled to account for heterogeneous risk attitude and hydrologic variability. A season-ahead forecast of reservoir inflow is translated to water-trading rulesets through coupled reservoir allocation, i.e. per-water right allocation from the reservoir, crop-water, economic optimization, and demand derivation models. Theoretical growers, aligned in crop-type cooperatives, are modelled as potential exclusive water trading partners that, in years of scarcity may choose between forecast-informed water trading via option contracts, or one of two alternative water trade actions: persistence forecast-informed trading or no trading. Simulations across varied initial water rights endowment and farmer risk attitude allows for evaluation of expected investment of water rights in forecast-informed water trade. Results indicate farmer willingness to trust forecast information and subsequently invest rights option contracts trade is variable (28%–70%), and dependent on initial endowment of rights and alternative water trade action, manifested here as persistence-informed trade and no trade alternative. While variable, investment outcomes for probabilistic hydrologic simulations reveal long-term trade stability under nearly every forecast-informed water trading simulation, suggesting options contracts may be viable under a variety of water scarcity conditions. A key insight is that seasonal climate forecasts may prove to be quite valuable when translated through sectoral models, providing the tailored information to end users with diverse risk attitudes. This reinforces the potential in including forecasts in agricultural water resources decision support frameworks, as a hedge against water scarcity for farmers of varied earning potential.
Powered by DB/Text WebPublisher, from
