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1 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Thapa, Bhesh Raj. 2019. Hydrological response of Chamelia Watershed in Mahakali Basin to climate change. Science of the Total Environment, 650(Part 1):365-383. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.053]
Water resources ; Watersheds ; Climate change ; Hydrological factors ; Water availability ; Water balance ; Stream flow ; Groundwater ; Temperature ; Precipitation ; Forecasting ; River basins ; Soil types ; Spatial distribution ; Models ; Uncertainty ; Hydrometeorology / Nepal / Mahakali Basin / Chamelia Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H048982)
(6.23 MB)
Chamelia (catchment area = 1603 km2 ), a tributary of Mahakali, is a snow-fed watershed in Western Nepal. The watershed has 14 hydropower projects at various stages of development. This study simulated the current and future hydrological system of Chamelia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model was calibrated for 2001–2007; validated for 2008–2013; and then applied to assess streamflow response to projected future climate scenarios. Multi-site calibration ensures that the model is capable of reproducing hydrological heterogeneity within the watershed. Current water balance above the Q120 hydrological station in the forms of precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and net water yield are 2469 mm, 381 mm and 1946 mm, respectively. Outputs of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for three future periods were considered for assessing climate change impacts. An ensemble of bias-corrected RCM projections showed that maximum temperature under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures is projected to increase from the baseline by 0.9 °C (1.1 °C), 1.4 °C (2.1 °C), and 1.6 °C (3.4 °C), respectively. Minimum temperature for the same scenarios and future periods are projected to increase by 0.9 °C (1.2 °C), 1.6 °C (2.5 °C), and 2.0 °C (3.9 °C), respectively. Average annual precipitation under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario for near-, mid-, and far-futures are projected to increase by 10% (11%), 10% (15%), and 13% (15%), respectively. Based on the five RCMs considered, there is a high consensus for increase in temperature but higher uncertainty with respect to precipitations. Under these projected changes, average annual streamflow was simulated to increase gradually from the near to far future under both RCPs; for instance, by 8.2% in near-, 12.2% in mid-, and 15.0% in far-future under RCP4.5 scenarios. The results are useful for planning water infrastructure projects, in Chamelia and throughout the Mahakali basin, to ensure long-term sustainability under climate change.
2 Pandey, Vishnu Prasad; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna; Thapa, Bhesh Raj. 2018. Climate change and water availability in western Nepal. In Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST). Proceedings of the Seminar on Nature for Water, Kanchanpur, Nepal, 28 March 2018. Kathmandu, Nepal: Nepal Academy of Science and Technology (NAST) pp.8-19.
Climate change ; Water availability ; Hydrology ; Models ; Watersheds ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Forecasting ; Water resources ; River basins ; Projects / Nepal / Mahakali Basin / Chamelia Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049463)
http://www.nast.gov.np/documentfile/proceedings_theSeminar_Water.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049463.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049463.pdf
(0.84 MB) (6.21 MB)
The response of any hydrological system to climate change may differ depending on characteristics of the system. Such studies are lacking for basins in Western Nepal. This paper, therefore, argues for a need to re-phrase the context of Western Nepal in more positive light and then analyses how a projected change in climate may impact on water availability of the region with a case of Chamelia watershed. A hydrological model in SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) environment is developed for the purpose. Future climate is projected using a set of fi ve Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). Then response of streamfl ow with projected change in climate is assessed. Results show the developed model performance is adequate to represent hydrological characteristics of the watershed. Future is projected to be warmer (high model consensus) and slightly wetter (more uncertainty), with winter and premonsoon season receiving more rainfall. Under the projected future changes, simulated stream fl ow is projected to change across future periods and seasons. The results are expected to be useful for future water resource and water infrastructure planning in the area.
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