Your search found 19 records
1 Acharya, N.; Ehsan, M. A.; Admasu, A.; Teshome, A.; Hall, K. J. C. 2021. On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia. Climate Services, 24:100272. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100272]
Climate variability ; Forecasting ; Climate prediction ; Climatic data ; Decision making ; Precipitation ; Rain ; Sea surface temperature ; Observation ; Models ; Calibration / Ethiopia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050782)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880721000601/pdfft?md5=d689972c3a6ddd0a35de526dba6fa3c9&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880721000601-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050782.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050782.pdf
(4.35 MB) (4.35 MB)
In their recent seasonal forecast guidance, the World Meteorological Organization recommended using an objective seasonal forecast system that includes a traceable, reproducible, and well-documented set of steps. Such a forecast system is the backbone of any successful climate service, which should provide advanced warning to government, industry, and communities, and thereby help reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions. In this study, we present the Next Generation (NextGen) seasonal forecast system which was recently adopted by the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia. NextGen is based on a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) approach that uses state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project. A canonical correlation analysis-based regression is used to calibrate the predictions from the GCMs against observations. The calibrated GCMs are then combined with equal weight to make final CMME predictions. A hindcast skill assessment of the CMME predictions has been depicted in this study for three rainy seasons in Ethiopia, namely Belg: Feb to May, Kiremt: Jun to Sep, and Bega: Oct to Jan. Over the region, the resulting forecasts are characterized by moderate skill at lead-1 for all three seasons. NextGen forecasting system shows that Bega rain-benefiting areas demonstrate the highest deterministic and probabilistic skill when compared to Kiremt and Belg rainy areas. The real-time experimental forecast of Kiremt2020 was conducted using NextGen by NMA and proved quite successful in capturing precipitation anomalies comparable to observations.
2 Siabi, E. K.; Awafo, E. A.; Kabo-bah, A. T.; Derkyi, N. S. A.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Mortey, E. M.; Yazdanie, M. 2023. Assessment of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios and its impacts on the Greater Accra Region. Urban Climate, 49:101432. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101432]
Climate change ; Socioeconomic impact ; Assessment ; Urban areas ; Climate prediction ; Trends ; Climate models ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Policies ; Sustainable Development Goals ; Goal 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities ; Goal 13 Climate action / Ghana / Greater Accra Region
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052016)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212095523000263/pdfft?md5=45ee630daa87c98c763c15711963ba8c&pid=1-s2.0-S2212095523000263-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052016.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052016.pdf
(22.40 MB) (22.4 MB)
The effects of climate change (CC) have intensified in Ghana, especially in the Greater Accra region over the last two decades. CC assessment under the new IPCC scenarios and consistent local station data is limited. Consequently, CC assessment is becoming difficult in data-scarce regions in Ghana. This study utilizes six different Regional Climate Models under the 6th IPCC Report’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) of the CMIP6, which were bias-corrected with CMhyd over Greater Accra using ground station and PUGMF reanalysis data. The study reveals a reduction and potential shift in the intensity of precipitation in the region under the SSPs. Maximum temperature is expected to increase by 0.81–1.45 C, 0.84–1.54 C, 0.96–1.70 C and 0.98–1.73 C, while minimum temperature would likely increase by 1.33–2.02 C, 1.49–2.22 C, 1.71–4.75 C and 1.75–4.83 C under SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 scenarios, respectively. Thus, temperature will likely increase, especially at night in the near future. Rising temperatures and changes in precipitation have impacts on all strata of society, from agricultural production to power generation and beyond. These findings can help inform Ghanaian policymaking on Sustainable Development Goals 11 and 13 as well as nationally determined contributions within the Paris Agreement.
3 Siabi, E. K.; Phuong, D. N. D.; Kabobah, A. T.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Anornu, G.; Incoom, A. B. M.; Nyantakyi, E. K.; Yeboah, K. A.; Siabi, S. E.; Vuu, C.; Domfeh, M. K.; Mortey, E. M.; Wemegah, C. S.; Kudjoe, F.; Opoku, P. D.; Asare, A.; Mensah, S. K.; Donkor, P.; Opoku, E. K.; Ouattara, Z. A.; Obeng-Ahenkora, N. K.; Adusu, D.; Quansah, A. 2023. Projections and impact assessment of the local climate change conditions of the Black Volta Basin of Ghana based on the Statistical DownScaling Model. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(2):494-515. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.352]
Climate change adaptation ; Climate change mitigation ; Climate prediction ; Impact assessment ; Trends ; Climate models ; River basins ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Policies ; Sustainable Development Goals ; Goal 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities ; Goal 13 Climate action / Ghana / Black Volta Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052017)
https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/14/2/494/1177291/jwc0140494.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052017.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052017.pdf
(1.27 MB) (1.27 MB)
The uncertainties and biases associated with Global Climate Models (GCMs) ascend from global to regional and local scales which delimits the applicability and suitability of GCMs in site-specific impact assessment research. The study downscaled two GCMs to evaluate effects of climate change (CC) in the Black Volta Basin (BVB) using Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) and 40-year ground station data. The study employed Taylor diagrams, dimensionless, dimensioned, and goodness of fit statistics to evaluate model performance. SDSM produced good performance in downscaling daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature in the basin. Future projections of precipitation by HadCM3 and CanESM2 indicated decreasing trend as revealed by the delta statistics and ITA plots. Both models projected near- to far-future increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation by 2.05-23.89, 5.41–46.35, and 5.84–35.33% in the near, mid, and far future respectively. Therefore, BVB is expected to become hotter and drier by 2100. As such, climate actions to combat detrimental effects on the BVB must be revamped since the basin hosts one of the largest hydropower dams in Ghana. The study is expected to support the integration of CC mitigation into local, national, and international policies, and support knowledge and capacity building to meet CC challenges.
4 Panjwani, Shweta; Kumar, S. N. 2023. Techniques to preprocess the climate projections—a review. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 152(1-2):521-533. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04431-2]
Climate prediction ; Techniques ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climatic data ; Decision making ; Impact assessment ; Extreme weather events
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052035)
(0.95 MB)
Model-derived climate projections have been used by decision-makers for climate change impact assessment, adaptation, and vulnerability studies at large scale. However, they are reported to have significant bias against observed data. The accuracy of dynamically downscaled data depends on the large-scale forcings; however, they still have some systematic errors, so it requires further bias correction. Before using these data for further studies, they need to be processed for performance evaluation. This review article provides current understanding in the field of analyzing global climate projections. It includes studies from the multi-criteria decision-making approaches along with its pros/cons to the performance evaluation of climate models. Moreover, this article discusses several bias correction approaches, multi-model ensemble approaches, and their applications for climate change studies.
5 Owusu, A.; Salazar, J. Z.; Mul, M.; van der Zaag, P.; Slinger, J. 2023. Quantifying the trade-offs in re-operating dams for the environment in the Lower Volta River. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(10):2001-2017. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2001-2023]
Dams ; River basins ; Ecosystem services ; Environmental flows ; Irrigation ; Hydropower ; Reservoirs ; Flood control ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Water users ; Communities / Ghana / Lower Volta River Basin / Akosombo Dam / Kpong Dam
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052038)
https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/27/2001/2023/hess-27-2001-2023.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052038.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052038.pdf
(2.98 MB) (2.98 MB)
The construction of the Akosombo and Kpong dams in the Lower Volta River basin in Ghana changed the downstream riverine ecosystem and affected the lives of downstream communities, particularly those who lost their traditional livelihoods. In contrast to the costs borne by those in the vicinity of the river, Ghana has enjoyed vast economic benefits from the affordable hydropower, irrigation schemes and lake tourism that developed after construction of the dams. Herein lies the challenge; there exists a trade-off between water for river ecosystems and related services on the one hand and anthropogenic water demands such as hydropower or irrigation on the other. In this study, an Evolutionary Multi-Objective Direct Policy Search (EMODPS) is used to explore the multi-sectoral trade-offs that exist in the Lower Volta River basin. Three environmental flows, previously determined for the Lower Volta, are incorporated separately as environmental objectives. The results highlight the dominance of hydropower production in the Lower Volta but show that there is room for providing environmental flows under current climatic and water use conditions if the firm energy requirement from Akosombo Dam reduces by 12 % to 38 % depending on the environmental flow regime that is implemented. There is uncertainty in climate change effects on runoff in this region; however multiple scenarios are investigated. It is found that climate change leading to increased annual inflows to the Akosombo Dam reduces the trade-off between hydropower and the environment as this scenario makes more water available for users. Furthermore, climate change resulting in decreased annual inflows provides the opportunity to strategically provide dry-season environmental flows, that is, reduce flows sufficiently to meet low flow requirements for key ecosystem services such as the clam fishery. This study not only highlights the challenges in balancing anthropogenic water demands and environmental considerations in managing existing dams but also identifies opportunities for compromise in the Lower Volta River.
6 Bhatti, Muhammad Tousif; Anwar, A. A.; Hussain, Kashif. 2023. Characterization and outlook of climatic hazards in an agricultural area of Pakistan. Scientific Reports, 13:9958. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36909-4]
Climate change ; Weather hazards ; Climate prediction ; Temperature ; Precipitation ; Drought ; Rainfall ; Disaster preparedness ; Crop yield ; Crop modelling / Pakistan / Khyber Pakhtunkhwa / Gomal Zam Dam Command Area
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052080)
(10.20 MB) (10.2 MB)
Many dimensions of human life and the environment are vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and the hazards associated with it. There are several indices and metrics to quantify climate hazards that can inform preparedness and planning at different levels e.g., global, regional, national, and local. This study uses biased corrected climate projections of temperature and precipitation to compute characteristics of potential climate hazards that are pronounced in the Gomal Zam Dam Command Area (GZDCA)— an irrigated agricultural area in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The results answer the question of what the future holds in the GZDCA regarding climate hazards of heatwaves, heavy precipitation, and agricultural drought. The results of heatwaves and agricultural drought present an alarming future and call for immediate actions for preparedness and adaptation. The magnitude of drought indices for the future is correlated with the crop yield response based on AquaCrop model simulations with observed climate data being used as input. This correlation provides insight into the suitability of various drought indices for agricultural drought characterization. The results elaborate on how the yield of wheat crop grown in a typical setting common in the South Asian region respond to the magnitude of drought indices. The findings of this study inform the planning process for changing climate and expected climate hazards in the GZDCA. Analyzing climate hazards for the future at the local level (administrative districts or contiguous agricultural areas) might be a more efficient approach for climate resilience due to its specificity and enhanced focus on the context.
7 Malambo, M.; Tembo, M. C.; Chapoto, A.; Matchaya, Greenwell; Kasoma-Pele, Winnie; Aheeyar, Mohamed; Ebrahim, Girma; Ajayi, O. C.; Afun-Ogidan, K.; Fakudze, Bhekiwe. 2023. Digital adaptation in agriculture profile for Zambia. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI); Rotterdam, Netherlands: Global Center on Adaptation; Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire: African Development Bank. 74p.
Climate change adaptation ; Agricultural sector ; Digital technology ; Disaster risk management ; Information and Communication Technologies ; Climate prediction ; Weather forecasting ; Weather index insurance ; Water management ; Vulnerability ; Resilience ; Innovation ; Investment ; Electricity supplies ; Infrastructure ; Gender ; Women ; Stakeholders ; State intervention ; Private sector ; River basins / Zambia / Zambezi River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052084)
https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/digital-adaptation-agriculture-profile-zambia
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052084.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052084.pdf
(5.74 MB) (5.74 MB)
8 Incoom, A. B. M.; Adjei, K. A.; Odai, S. N.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Siabi, E. K.; Awotwi, A. 2023. Assessing climate model accuracy and future climate change in Ghana's Savannah regions. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 14(7):2362-2383. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2023.070]
Climate models ; Performance assessment ; Climate prediction ; Climate change adaptation ; Strategies ; Precipitation ; Rainfall patterns ; Temperature ; Weather forecasting ; Savannahs / West Africa / Ghana / Savannah Zone / Bole / Kete-Krachi / Kintampo / Tamale / Wa / Wenchi / Zuarungu / Navrongo / Yendi
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052102)
https://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/14/7/2362/1267240/jwc0142362.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052102.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052102.pdf
(1.52 MB) (1.52 MB)
This study aimed to compare the performance of six regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating observed and projecting future climate in the Savannah zone of Ghana, in order to find suitable methods to improve the accuracy of climate models in the region. The study found that the accuracy of both individual RCMs and their ensemble mean improved with bias correction, but the performance of individual RCMs was dependent on location. The projected change in annual precipitation indicated a general decline in rainfall with variations based on the RCM and location. Projections under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 were larger than those under RCP 4.5. The changes in mean temperature recorded were 1 °C for the 2020s for both RCPs, 1–4 °C for the 2050s under both RCPs, and 1– 4 °C under RCP 4.5, and from 2 to 8 °C for the 2080s. These findings will aid farmers and governments in the West African subregion in making informed decisions and planning cost-effective climate adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change on the ecosystem. The study highlights the importance of accurate climate projections to reduce vulnerability to climate change and the need to improve climate models in projecting climate in the West African subregion.
9 International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 2023. Sri Lanka drought outlook - Issue 1. South Asia Drought Monitoring System (SADMS) Bulletin, 15p.
Drought ; Weather forecasting ; Precipitation ; Rainfall ; Dry spells ; Climate prediction ; Normalized difference vegetation index ; Surface water ; Satellite observation ; Maps / Sri Lanka
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052152)
(2.47 MB)
10 Ali, Zeshan; Iqbal, M.; Khan, I. U.; Masood, M. U.; Umer, M.; Lodhi, M. U. K.; Tariq, M. A. U. R. 2023. Hydrological response under CMIP6 climate projection in Astore River Basin, Pakistan. Journal of Mountain Science, 20(8):2263-2281. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-022-7872-x]
Climate prediction ; Climate change ; Hydrological modelling ; River basins ; Watersheds ; Stream flow ; Runoff ; Climate models ; Forecasting ; Precipitation ; Temperature / Pakistan / Astore River Basin / Upper Indus Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052158)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11629-022-7872-x.pdf?pdf=button
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052158.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052158.pdf
(5.27 MB) (5.27 MB)
Climate change strongly influences the available water resources in a watershed due to direct linkage of atmospheric driving forces and changes in watershed hydrological processes. Understanding how these climatic changes affect watershed hydrology is essential for human society and environmental processes. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset of three GCM’s (BCC-CSM2-MR, INM-CM5-0, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR) with resolution of 100 km has been analyzed to examine the projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the Astore catchment during 2020–2070. Bias correction method was used to reduce errors. In this study, statistical significance of trends was performed by using the Man- Kendall test. Sen’s estimator determined the magnitude of the trend on both seasonal and annual scales at Rama Rattu and Astore stations. MPI-ESM1-2-HR showed better results with coefficient of determination (COD) ranging from 0.70–0.74 for precipitation and 0.90–0.92 for maximum and minimum temperature at Astore, Rama, and Rattu followed by INM-CM5-0 and BCC-CSM2-MR. University of British Columbia Watershed model was used to attain the future hydrological series and to analyze the hydrological response of Astore River Basin to climate change. Results revealed that by the end of the 2070s, average annual precipitation is projected to increase up to 26.55% under the SSP1–2.6, 6.91% under SSP2–4.5, and decrease up to 21.62% under the SSP5–8.5. Precipitation also showed considerable variability during summer and winter. The projected temperature showed an increasing trend that may cause melting of glaciers. The projected increase in temperature ranges from - 0.66°C to 0.50°C, 0.9°C to 1.5°C and 1.18°C to 2°C under the scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. Simulated streamflows presented a slight increase by all scenarios. Maximum streamflow was generated under SSP5–8.5 followed by SSP2–4.5 and SSP1–2.6. The snowmelt and groundwater contributions to streamflow have decreased whereas rainfall and glacier melt components have increased on the other hand. The projected streamflows (2020–2070) compared to the control period (1990–2014) showed a reduction of 3%–11%, 2%–9%, and 1%–7% by SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5, respectively. The results revealed detailed insights into the performance of three GCMs, which can serve as a blueprint for regional policymaking and be expanded upon to establish adaption measures.
11 Shah, Muhammad Azeem Ali; Lautze, Jonathan; Meelad, A. (Eds.) 2023. Afghanistan–Pakistan shared waters: state of the basins. Wallingford, UK: CABI. 184p. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1079/9781800622371.0000]
Transboundary waters ; Water sharing ; River basin management ; Water resources ; International cooperation ; Water security ; Sustainability ; Surface water ; Groundwater ; Agricultural water use ; Water management ; Water quality ; Irrigation ; Land use ; Socioeconomic development ; Demography ; Poverty ; Human health ; Food security ; Livelihoods ; Employment ; Economic growth ; Energy security ; Sustainable Development Goals ; Climate change ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Climate prediction ; Trends ; Hydrology ; Water governance ; Water policies ; Water law ; Legislation ; Institutions ; Reservoirs ; Hydropower / Afghanistan / Pakistan / Kabul River Basin / Kurram River Basin / Gomal River Basin / Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052166)
https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/epdf/10.1079/9781800622371.0000
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052166.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052166.pdf
(43.90 MB) (43.9 MB)
There is currently no water cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Of the nine rivers that flow across the border, none possess a formal agreement or mechanism to manage shared water resources. Further, there is very little information available about the status of environment, hydrology and water resources management for these river basins that could be used as a starting point for dialogues on transboundary water coordination. This State of the Basins book co-develops an overview of the three most important river basins, in collaboration with international experts and water professionals from Afghanistan and Pakistan. It covers water resources, land resources, ecological health, environment, climate change, and the social and economic conditions for sustainable management of these precious resources. It will inform decision making within the two countries, and begin to establish benefits that can accrue from more active collaboration on these shared waters. This book: Focuses on portions of the Indus shared by Afghanistan and Pakistan. Features extensive engagement and co-development with Afghan and Pakistani professionals. Is the first book on the shared waters in the Indus, developed in the context of regional realities associated with post-August 2021 Taliban takeover. The book is aimed at students and researchers in water rights and resources, and government decision makers, private sector investors, donors, intermediary organizations that work directly with farmers, researchers and students. It is a reference book for graduate students and researchers working on these basins, and on transboundary river basin management in Asia and beyond.
12 Hashmi, M. Z. U. R.; Bhatti, Muhammad Tousif; Azizi, M. A. 2023. Climate. In Shah, Muhammad Azeem Ali; Lautze, Jonathan; Meelad, A. (Eds.). Afghanistan–Pakistan shared waters: state of the basins. Wallingford, UK: CABI. pp.43-61. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1079/9781800622371.0004]
Climate change ; Transboundary waters ; River basins ; Climate prediction ; Climate variability ; Trends ; Governance ; Temperature ; Precipitation / Afghanistan / Pakistan / Kabul River Basin / Kurram River Basin / Gomal River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052170)
https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/epdf/10.1079/9781800622371.0004
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052170.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052170.pdf
(7.61 MB) (7.61 MB)
Climate change is a major threat in all the shared river basins in South Asia owing to the huge populations they sustain and the complex regional dynamics. This chapter summarizes the available knowledge related to changing climate trends in three Afghan–Pakistani transboundary river basins: the Kabul, Kurram and Gomal. A key finding indicates a consistent rise in temperature over the last 30 years. By the end of the 21st century, temperatures may rise by an additional 3–4°C under RCP1 4.5 and 5–6°C under RCP 8.5, relative to 2020 levels. The potential impact of temperature rise is compounded by considerable uncertainty associated with the current and future behaviour of precipitation in the three basins. The findings in this chapter will help practitioners and policymakers visualize the nature and scope of likely climate challenges in the three basins.
13 Sahana, V.; Mondal, A. 2023. Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(2):623-641. (Special issue: Drought vulnerability, Risk, and Impact Assessments: Bridging the Science-Policy Gap) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023]
Drought ; Weather hazards ; Vulnerability ; Indicators ; Risk assessment ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Projections ; Hydroclimate ; Water availability ; Groundwater ; Socioeconomic aspects / India
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052176)
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/623/2023/nhess-23-623-2023.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052176.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052176.pdf
(4.99 MB) (4.99 MB)
Changes in climate and socio-economic conditions pose a major threat to water security, particularly in the densely populated, agriculture-dependent and rapidly developing country of India. Therefore, for cogent mitigation and adaptation planning, it is important to assess the future evolution of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk. Earlier studies have demonstrated projected drought risk over India on the basis of frequency analysis and/or hazard assessment alone. This study investigates and evaluates the change in projected drought risk under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions by combining drought hazard and vulnerability projections at a country-wide scale. A multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) accounting for concurrent deficits in precipitation and soil moisture is chosen to quantify droughts. Drought vulnerability assessment is carried out combining exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators, using a robust multi-criteria decision-making method called the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the worst-case scenario for drought hazard (RCP2.6-Far future), there is a projected decrease in the area under high or very high drought hazard classes in the country by approximately 7 %. Further, the worst-case scenario for drought vulnerability (RCP6.0- SSP2-Near future) shows a 33 % rise in the areal extent of high or very high drought vulnerability classes. The western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and western Rajasthan regions are found to be high risk under all scenarios. Bivariate choropleth analysis shows that the projected drought risk is majorly driven by changes in drought vulnerability attributable to societal developments rather than changes in drought hazard resulting from climatic conditions. The present study can aid policy makers, administrators and drought managers in developing decision support systems for efficient drought management.
14 International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 2023. Sri Lanka drought outlook - Issue 2. South Asia Drought Monitoring System (SADMS) Bulletin, 17p.
Drought ; Weather forecasting ; Climate prediction ; Precipitation ; Rainfall ; Dry spells ; Normalized difference vegetation index ; Rivers ; Discharge ; Reservoirs ; Satellite observation ; Maps / Sri Lanka
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052177)
(3.04 MB)
15 International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 2023. South Asia drought outlook - Issue 1. South Asia Drought Monitoring System (SADMS) Bulletin, 16p.
Drought ; Weather forecasting ; Climate prediction ; Precipitation ; Rainfall ; Dry spells ; Normalized difference vegetation index ; Rivers ; Discharge ; Reservoirs ; Satellite observation ; Maps / South Asia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052178)
(4.01 MB)
16 Agbehadji, I. E.; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe; Botai, J.; Masinde, M. 2023. A systematic review of existing early warning systems’ challenges and opportunities in cloud computing early warning systems. Climate, 11(9):188. [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090188]
Early warning systems ; Systematic reviews ; Meta-analysis ; Climate services ; Climate prediction ; Techniques ; Modelling ; Frameworks ; Natural disasters
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052179)
https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/9/188/pdf?version=1694397872
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052179.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052179.pdf
(1.23 MB) (1.23 MB)
This paper assessed existing EWS challenges and opportunities in cloud computing through the PSALSAR framework for systematic literature review and meta-analysis. The research used extant literature from Scopus and Web of Science, where a total of 2516 pieces of literature were extracted between 2004 and 2022, and through inclusion and exclusion criteria, the total was reduced to 98 for this systematic review. This review highlights the challenges and opportunities in transferring in-house early warning systems (that is, non-cloud) to the cloud computing infrastructure. The different techniques or approaches used in different kinds of EWSs to facilitate climate-related data processing and analytics were also highlighted. The findings indicate that very few EWSs (for example, flood, drought, etc.) utilize the cloud computing infrastructure. Many EWSs are not leveraging the capability of cloud computing but instead using online application systems that are not cloud-based. Secondly, a few EWSs have harnessed the computational techniques and tools available on a single platform for data processing. Thirdly, EWSs combine more than one fundamental tenet of the EWS framework to provide a holistic warning system. The findings suggest that reaching a global usage of climate-related EWS may be challenged if EWSs are not redesigned to fit the cloud computing service infrastructure.
17 Wang, L.; Gu, X.; Slater, L. J.; Lai, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Gong, J.; Dembele, Moctar; Tosunoglu, F.; Liu, J.; Zhang, X.; Kong, D.; Li, J. 2023. Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change. Earth's Future, 11(9):e2023EF003613. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003613]
Precipitation ; Anthropogenic climate change ; Extreme weather events ; Climate prediction ; Forecasting ; Climatology ; Climate models ; Time series analysis ; Greenhouse gas emissions / China
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052231)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023EF003613
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052231.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052231.pdf
(13.70 MB) (13.7 MB)
In July 2021, Typhoon In-Fa produced record-breaking extreme precipitation events (hereafter referred to as the 2021 EPEs) in central and eastern China, and caused serious socioeconomic losses and casualties. However, it is still unknown whether the 2021 EPEs can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and how the occurrence probabilities of precipitation events of a similar magnitude might evolve in the future. The 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China occurred in the context of no linear trend (a significantly increasing trend at a rate of 4.44%/decade) in the region-averaged Rx5day (summer maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation) percentage precipitation anomaly (PPA), indicating that global warming might have no impact on the 2021 EPE in central China but might have impacted the 2021 EPE in eastern China by increasing the long-term trend of EPEs. Using the scaled generalized extreme value distribution, we detected a slightly negative (significantly positive) association of the Rx5day PPA time series in central (eastern) China with the global mean temperature anomaly, suggesting that global warming might have no (a detectable) contribution to the changes in occurrence probability of precipitation extremes like the 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China. Historical attributions (1961–2020) showed that the likelihood of the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China decreased/increased by approximately +47% (-23% to +89%)/+55% (-45% to +201%) due to ACC. By the end of the 21st century, the likelihood of precipitation extremes similar to the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China under SSP585 is 14 (9–19)/15 (9–20) times higher than under historical climate conditions.
18 Obahoundje, Salomon; Diedhiou, A.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Kouassi, K. L.; Ofosu, E. A.; Kouame, D. G. M. 2024. Predicting climate-driven changes in reservoir inflows and hydropower in Côte d'Ivoire using machine learning modeling. Energy, 302:131849. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131849]
Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Reservoirs ; Dams ; Machine learning ; Modelling ; Time series analysis ; Water power ; Hydroelectric power generation ; River basins ; Climate variability / Côte d'Ivoire / Buyo Dam / Kossou Dam / Taboo Dam
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052857)
(18.20 MB)
This study investigates the impact of climate change and variability on reservoir inflow and hydropower generation at three key hydropower plants in Côte d'Ivoire including Buyo, Kossou, and Taboo. To simulate inflow to reservoir and energy generation, the Random Forest (RF), a machine-learning algorithm allowing fewer input variables was applied. In three-step, RF k-fold cross validation (with k = 5) was used; (i) 12 and 6 multiple lags of precipitation and temperature at monthly increments were used as predictors, respectively; (ii) the five most important variables were used in addition to the current month's precipitation and temperature; and (iii) a residual RF was built. The bias-adjusted ensemble mean of eleven climate models output of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment was used for the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The model output was highly correlated with the observations, with Pearson correlations >0.90 for inflow and >0.85 for energy for the three hydropower plants. The temperature in the selected sub-catchments may increase significantly from 0.9 to 3 °C in the near (2040–2069) and from 1.7 to 4.2 °C in far (2070–2099) future periods relative to the reference period (1981–2010). A time series of precipitation showed a change in range -7 and 15 % in the near and -8 to 20 % in the far future and more years are with increasing change. Depending on the sub-catchment, the magnitude of temperature and precipitation changes will increase as greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)(greater in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5) rise. At all time scales (monthly, seasonal, and annual), the simulated inflow and energy changes were related to climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. At the annual time scale, the inflow is projected to change between -10 and 37 % and variability may depend on the reservoir. However, the energy change is promised to change between -10 and 25 %, -30 to 15 %, and 5–40 % relative to the historical (1981–2010) period for Taabo, Kossou, and Buyo dams, respectively at an annual scale. The changes may vary according to the year, the RCPs, and the dam. Consequently, decision-makers are recommended to take into consideration an energy mix plan to meet the energy demand in these seasons.
19 Kouman, K. D.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Kouadio, B. H.; Kabo-bah, A. T.; Dembele, Moctar; Siabi, E. K.; Mensah, J. K. 2024. Assessment of climate change in the North-East Region of Côte d'Ivoire: future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models. Cogent Engineering, 11(1):2345506. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311916.2024.2345506]
Climate models ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Drought ; Datasets ; Evapotranspiration / Côte d'Ivoire / Zanzan
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: PendingH052928)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/23311916.2024.2345506?needAccess=true
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052928.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052928.pdf
(12.10 MB) (12.2 MB)
Climate change effects are expected to be profoundly local and region-specific, underlining the urgent need for local-level assessments. This study emphasizes the agriculturally important Zanzan region of northeastern Côte d'Ivoire and examines future changes in precipitation, temperature, and resultant drought conditions based on six global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios - SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. We integrate data from 12 stations within the Zanzan region, applying CMhyd software to correct model biases. Key statistical metrics confirm the well-calibrated nature of the corrected GCMs vis-a-vis observed data. Projections show a decrease in annual precipitation by an average of 133 mm and 177 mm under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios respectively by 2100. Future precipitation patterns suggest a shift towards the prevalent dry season. Tmax and Tmin are projected to increase by þ3 C and þ4.8 C (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and þ3.3 C (both scenarios) respectively, by the end of the century. These changes suggest an intensification of severe droughts, particularly in the 2050s and 2080s, as assessed by the SPEI. Additionally, extreme temperatures (TX90p) and consecutive dry days (CDD) are projected to intensify, posing imminent threats to food security, water resources, and public health in the Zanzan region. This study bridges a critical gap by offering localized insights into future climate scenarios, thereby enhancing our understanding of the region-specific impacts of climate change. The research also underscores the urgency of adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to the Zanzan region’s vulnerabilities.
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