Your search found 11 records
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047784)
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047932)
Rainfall analysis is essential for agricultural crop planning and water resources management, especially under water scarcity conditions. The 36 years (1977–2013) of rainfall data for Kharagpur were analyzed for characterization of different seasonal events. The Weibull's formula predicted the probability of mean onset on 23rd standard meteorological weeks (SMW) (3rd–9th June) and withdrawal on 43rd SMW (21st–27th October). There was 80–83% probability of a wet week [P(W)] occurring within 25th–35th SMW. The first order Markov chain process shows the conditional probability of one wet week preceded by another wet week [P(W/W)] varied between 0 and 86%; whereas, dry week preceded by another dry week [P(D/D)] varied in the range of 70 to 100%. The stochastic analysis of successive wet or dry weeks formulates the adaptation strategies to avoid the possible effect of wet or dry spell during cropping seasons. The wet spell analysis suggests rainwater harvesting to control soil erosion and maximization of water use efficiency. The probability of getting consecutive wet [P(W/W)] and dry days [P(D/D)] were varied in the range of 40%–70% and 50%–90%, respectively. The probability of getting different magnitude of rainfall (10 to 40 mm) during the monsoon weeks (25th–39th week) were found to be more than 50% probability level, which suggest for harvesting of excess runoff water for future supplemental irrigation.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049041)
(1.63 MB) (1.63 MB)
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050066)
(0.62 MB) (636 KB)
The objective of this study was to analyze rainfall variability and its impact on rice production in the Fogera Plain. The analysis used historical rainfall and yield data from four stations. Historical daily rainfall and yield data were obtained from the National Meteorology Agency (NMA) and Amhara Regional State Bureau of Agriculture, respectively. The rainfall data were subjected to trend and variability analysis. Partial correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to determine the relationship and impact of rainfall characteristics on rice yield. Results showed a decreasing trend of rainfall amount, shortening of the length of the growing period (LGP), increased the variability of rainfall onset date and dry spell length in the study area. The analysis revealed that dry spell lengths of 5 days (sp5), 7 days (sp7), 10 days (sp10) and 15 days (sp15) varied over the study areas with dry spells getting more prevalent in Woreta and Maksegnit compared to Bahir Dar and Gondar stations. Rice yield was positively and significantly correlated with annual rainfall amount (0.69**), LGP (0.61**), and a number of rainy days (0.59*). On the other hand, rice yield was negatively and significantly correlated with rainfall onset date (-0.693**) and length of a dry spell (-0.62**). Rainfall parameters explained 69% of the rice yield variability. The study indicated the need for managing rainfall variability to increase the productivity of rice in the Fogera Plain.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051039)
(0.58 MB)
This paper investigates the impact of erratic rainfall and related water problems on agricultural productivity. The paper also aims to shed light on the conceptual importance of understanding the incidence and impacts of rainfall shocks for choosing feasible agricultural water risk management strategies both at household and policy levels. To achieve these goals we develop a conceptual framework, use national representative data from Zambia’s crop estimates survey for 2017/2018 farming season, employ fixed effects regression approach, and find that dry spells, excessive floods, incidence of water logging are all detrimental to crop productivity. The crop-based equations also reveal the differential impacts of the rainfall shocks on different crops. Since the effect of water factors including dry spells, floods and water logging on agricultural productivity is dependent on the crop types, it is important for the Zambian government as well as other countries to take this into account when planning and implementing strategies for agricultural water risk management.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051888)
(6.22 MB) (6.22 MB)
Various precipitation-related studies have been conducted on the Yangtze River. However, the topography and atmospheric circulation regime of the Source Region of the Yangtze River (SRYZ) differ from other basin parts. Along with natural uniqueness, precipitation constitutes over 60% of the direct discharge in the SRYZ, which depicts the decisive role of precipitation and a necessary study on the verge of climate change. The study evaluates the event distribution of long-term variability in precipitation classes in the SRYZ. The precipitation was classified into three precipitation classes: light precipitation (0–5 mm, 5–10 mm), moderate precipitation (10–15 mm, 15–20 mm, 20–25 mm), and heavy precipitation (>25 mm). The year 1998 was detected as a changing year using the Pettitt test in the precipitation time series; therefore, the time series was divided into three scenarios: Scenario-R (1961–2016), the pre-change point (Scenario-I; 1961–1998), and the post-change point (Scenario-II; 1999–2016). Observed annual precipitation amounts in the SRYZ during Scenario-R and Scenario-I significantly increased by 13.63 mm/decade and 48.8 mm/decade, respectively. The same increasing trend was evident in seasonal periods. On a daily scale, light precipitation (0–5 mm) covered most of the days during the entire period, with rainy days accounting for 83.50%, 84.5%, and 81.30%. These rainy days received up to 40%, 41%, and 38% of the annual precipitation during Scenario-R, Scenario-I, and Scenario-II, respectively. Consequently, these key findings of the study will be helpful in basin-scale water resources management.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052152)
(2.47 MB)
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052177)
(3.04 MB)
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052178)
(4.01 MB)
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052251)
(1.07 MB)
Occurrence of frequent dryspell is affecting agriculture; productivity in the semi-arid areas of West Africa such as northern Ghana. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of dryspells on rainfed maize (early and late maturing), millet, and sorghum yields in a savanna agro-ecosystem in northern Ghana, and suggest management options for reducing their impacts. Long-term dryspell analyses were carried out using INSTAT + v3.37 on climatic data collected over a 30- to 50-year period. The probabilities of dryspells exceeding 7, 10, 14 and 21 days were calculated for crop types during different physiological growth stages and growing seasons of varying lengths. CROPWAT 8.0 was used to determine effective rainfall, crop water requirement, crop water deficit, and changes in yield. The results showed that 80% of the rains begin between the second week of May and the third week of June in the Upper East Region of Ghana. The result also revealed that more dryspells occurred after the initial growth stage of crops. During mid and late stages of crop growth there was a 50% probability of dryspells greater than seven days for early maturing maize and millet and of > 70% for sorghum. Late maturing maize experienced higher crop water deficit than early maturing maize. The result also showed that significant yield reduction (36% reduction in late maturing maize at both Navrongo and Zuarungu) occurs if planting is done before May 21. Similarly, 25 and 23% yield losses, were observed in sorghum at Navrongo and Zuarungu, respectively. We therefore recommend (i) early maturing crop varieties, (ii) adjusting sowing dates based on seasonal climate information, and (iii) improving water management.
11 Zhang, X.; Gu, X.; Slater, L. J.; Dembele, Moctar; Tosunoglu, F.; Guan, Y.; Liu, J.; Zhang, X.; Kong, D.; Xie, F.; Tang, X. 2023. Amplification of coupled hot-dry extremes over eastern monsoon China. Earth's Future, 11(12):e2023EF003604. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003604]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052480)
(10.40 MB) (10.4 MB)
High air temperatures and low atmospheric humidity can result in severe disasters such as flash droughts in regions characterized by high humidity (monsoon regions). However, it remains unclear whether responses of hot extremes to warming temperature are amplified on dry days as well as the response of dry extremes on hot days. Here, taking eastern monsoon China (EMC) as a typical monsoon region, we find a faster increase in air temperature on drier summer days, and a faster decrease in atmospheric humidity on hotter days, indicating “hotter days get drier” and “drier days get hotter” (i.e., coupling hotter and drier extremes), especially in southern EMC. The southern EMC is also a hotspot where the coupling hot-dry extremes has become significantly stronger during the past six decades. The stronger hot-dry coupling in southern EMC is associated with anomalies in large-scale circulations, such as reduced total cloud cover, abnormal anticyclones in the upper atmosphere, intense descending motion, and strong moisture divergence over this region. Land-atmosphere feedback enhance the hot-dry coupling in southern EMC by increasing land surface dryness (seen as a decrease in the evaporation fraction). The decreasing evaporation fraction is associated with drying surface soil moisture, controlled by decreases in pre-summer 1-m soil moisture and summer-mean precipitation. Given hot extremes are projected to increase and atmospheric humidity is predicted to decrease in the future, it is very likely that increasing hot-dry days and associated disasters will be witnessed in monsoon regions, which should be mitigated against by adopting adaptive measures.
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