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(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049638)
(14.80 MB)
In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERA5 reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.
2 Martin, M. A.; Boakye, E. A.; Boyd, E.; Broadgate, W.; Bustamante, M.; Canadell, J. G.; Carr, E. R.; Chu, E. K.; Cleugh, H.; Csevar, S.; Daoudy, M.; de Bremond, A.; Dhimal, M.; Ebi, K. L.; Edwards, C.; Fuss, S.; Girardin, M. P.; Glavovic, B.; Hebden, S.; Hirota, M.; Hsu, H.-H.; Huq, S.; Ingold, K.; Johannessen, O. M.; Kameyama, Y.; Kumarasinghe, N.; Langendijk, G. S.; Lissner, T.; Lwasa, S.; Machalaba, C.; Maltais, A.; Mathai, M. V.; Mbow, C.; McNamara, K. E.; Mukherji, Aditi; Murray, V.; Mysiak, J.; Okereke, C.; Ospina, D.; Otto, F.; Prakash, A.; Pulhin, J. M.; Raju, E.; Redman, A.; Rigaud, K. K.; Rockstrom, J.; Roy, J.; Schipper, E. L. F.; Schlosser, P.; Schulz, K. A.; Schumacher, K.; Schwarz, L.; Scown, M.; Sedova, B.; Siddiqui, T. A.; Singh, C.; Sioen, G. B.; Stammer, D.; Steinert, N. J.; Suk, S.; Sutton, R.; Thalheimer, L.; van Aalst, M.; van der Geest, K.; Zhao, Z. J. 2022. Ten new insights in climate science 2022. Global Sustainability, 5(e20):1-20. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2022.17]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051580)
(0.58 MB) (596 KB)
Non-technical summary:
We summarize what we assess as the past year's most important findings within climate change research: limits to adaptation, vulnerability hotspots, new threats coming from the climate–health nexus, climate (im)mobility and security, sustainable practices for land use and finance, losses and damages, inclusive societal climate decisions and ways to overcome structural barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Technical summary:
We synthesize 10 topics within climate research where there have been significant advances or emerging scientific consensus since January 2021. The selection of these insights was based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings concern: (1) new aspects of soft and hard limits to adaptation; (2) the emergence of regional vulnerability hotspots from climate impacts and human vulnerability; (3) new threats on the climate–health horizon – some involving plants and animals; (4) climate (im)mobility and the need for anticipatory action; (5) security and climate; (6) sustainable land management as a prerequisite to land-based solutions; (7) sustainable finance practices in the private sector and the need for political guidance; (8) the urgent planetary imperative for addressing losses and damages; (9) inclusive societal choices for climate-resilient development and (10) how to overcome barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Social media summary:
Science has evidence on barriers to mitigation and how to overcome them to avoid limits to adaptation across multiple fields.
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