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1 Kouman, K. D.; Kabo-bah, A. T.; Kouadio, B. H.; Akpoti, Komlavi. 2022. Spatio-temporal trends of precipitation and temperature extremes across the North-East Region of Cote d’Ivoire over the period 1981–2020. Climate, 10(5):74. (Special issue: Impacts of Extreme Weather on Hydrological Process, Water Quality and Ecosystem in Agricultural and Forested Watersheds under the Changing Climate) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050074]

Climate change ; Extreme weather events ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Rain ; Trends ; Estimation ; Spatial distribution ; Time series analysis ; Indicators ; Agriculture / West Africa / Cote d'Ivoire / Zanzan

(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051152)

https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/10/5/74/pdf?version=1653036527
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051152.pdf

(7.07 MB) (7.07 MB)

The northeast region of Cote d’Ivoire, where agriculture is the main economic activity, is potentially vulnerable to extreme climatic conditions. This study aims to make a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of trends in extreme indices related to precipitation and temperature for the Zanzan region of Cote d’Ivoire over the period of 1981–2020. The statistical significance of the calculated trends was assessed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, while Sen’s slope estimation was used to define the amount of change. For extreme precipitations, the results showed a decreasing trend in annual total precipitations estimated at 112.37 mm and in daily precipitations intensity indices. Furthermore, the consecutive dry days’ index showed an increasing trend estimated at 18.67 days. Unlike the trends in precipitation extremes, which showed statistically non-significant trends, the trends in temperature extremes were mostly significant over the entire study area. The cold spells indices all show decreasing trends, while the warm spells show increasing trends. Drawing inferences from the results, it becomes clear that the study area may be threatened by food insecurity and water scarcity. The results are aimed to support climate adaptation efforts and policy intervention in the region.

2 Kouman, K. D.; Akpoti, Komlavi; Kouadio, B. H.; Kabo-bah, A. T.; Dembele, Moctar; Siabi, E. K.; Mensah, J. K. 2024. Assessment of climate change in the North-East Region of Côte d'Ivoire: future precipitation, temperature, and meteorological drought using CMIP6 models. Cogent Engineering, 11(1):2345506. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311916.2024.2345506]

Climate models ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Drought ; Datasets ; Evapotranspiration / Côte d'Ivoire / Zanzan

(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052928)

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/23311916.2024.2345506?needAccess=true
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052928.pdf

(12.10 MB) (12.2 MB)

Climate change effects are expected to be profoundly local and region-specific, underlining the urgent need for local-level assessments. This study emphasizes the agriculturally important Zanzan region of northeastern Côte d'Ivoire and examines future changes in precipitation, temperature, and resultant drought conditions based on six global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios - SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. We integrate data from 12 stations within the Zanzan region, applying CMhyd software to correct model biases. Key statistical metrics confirm the well-calibrated nature of the corrected GCMs vis-a-vis observed data. Projections show a decrease in annual precipitation by an average of 133 mm and 177 mm under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios respectively by 2100. Future precipitation patterns suggest a shift towards the prevalent dry season. Tmax and Tmin are projected to increase by þ3 C and þ4.8 C (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and þ3.3 C (both scenarios) respectively, by the end of the century. These changes suggest an intensification of severe droughts, particularly in the 2050s and 2080s, as assessed by the SPEI. Additionally, extreme temperatures (TX90p) and consecutive dry days (CDD) are projected to intensify, posing imminent threats to food security, water resources, and public health in the Zanzan region. This study bridges a critical gap by offering localized insights into future climate scenarios, thereby enhancing our understanding of the region-specific impacts of climate change. The research also underscores the urgency of adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to the Zanzan region’s vulnerabilities.