Your search found 6 records
1 Roth, N.; Jaramillo, F.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Zamora, D.; Palomino-Angel, S.; Cousins, S. A. O. 2021. A call for consistency with the terms ‘wetter’ and ‘drier’ in climate change studies. Environmental Evidence, 10:8. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-021-00224-0]
Climate change ; Hydroclimate ; Ecosystems ; Precipitation ; Drought ; Temperature ; Water availability ; Evapotranspiration ; Soil moisture
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050323)
https://environmentalevidencejournal.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s13750-021-00224-0.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050323.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050323.pdf
(1.03 MB) (1.03 MB)
Ongoing and future hydroclimatic changes have large environmental and societal impacts. In terrestrial ecosystems, these changes are usually described with the terms ‘wetter’ and ‘drier’, which refer to the change in the quantity and/or presence of water, either as water fluxes or stocks. We conducted a literature review of almost 500 recent climate change studies to quantitatively investigate the consistency of the use of these terms across disciplines, regarding the hydroclimatic variables they are related to. We found that although precipitation is prevalently used to describe ‘wetter’ and ‘drier’ conditions, many other variables are also used to refer to changes in water availability between research fields, pointing to a varied perspective on the use of these terms. Some studies do not define the terms at all. In order to facilitate meta-analyses across disciplines, we therefore highlight the need to explicitly state which hydroclimatic variables authors are referring to. In this way, we hope that the terms ‘wetter’ and ‘drier’ used in scientific studies are easier to relate to hydroclimatic processes, which should facilitate the application by authorities and policy makers.
2 Dembele, Moctar; Vrac, M.; Ceperley, N.; Zwart, Sander J.; Larsen, J.; Dadson, S. J.; Mariethoz, G.; Schaefli, B. 2022. Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River Basin under global warming. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 26(5):1481-1506. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1481-2022]
River basins ; Hydrological cycle ; Global warming ; Hydrological modelling ; Climate change ; Forecasting ; Water availability ; Hydroclimate ; Climatic zones ; Spatial variation ; Datasets / West Africa / Volta River Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051026)
https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/1481/2022/hess-26-1481-2022.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051026.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051026.pdf
(4.33 MB) (4.33 MB)
A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM–GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The bias-corrected climate projections are then used as input to the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the 21st century (1991–2100).
Results reveal contrasting dynamics in the seasonality of rainfall, depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High- and low-flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. The evolutions of streamflow indicate a future delay in the date of occurrence of low flows up to 11 d under RCP8.5, while high flows could occur 6 d earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 d later (RCP8.5), as compared to the historical period.
Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water– energy–food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision-makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socioeconomic development.
Results reveal contrasting dynamics in the seasonality of rainfall, depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High- and low-flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. The evolutions of streamflow indicate a future delay in the date of occurrence of low flows up to 11 d under RCP8.5, while high flows could occur 6 d earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 d later (RCP8.5), as compared to the historical period.
Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water– energy–food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision-makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socioeconomic development.
3 Gebrechorkos, S. H.; Taye, Meron Teferi; Birhanu, B.; Solomon, D.; Demissie, T. 2023. Future changes in climate and hydroclimate extremes in East Africa. Earth's Future, 11(2):e2022EF003011. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003011]
Climate change adaptation ; Hydroclimate ; Extreme weather events ; Forecasting ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Drought ; Floods ; Rivers ; Stream flow ; Climate models ; Impact assessment ; Hydrological modelling / East Africa / Ethiopia / Kenya / United Republic of Tanzania / Uganda
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051758)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2022EF003011
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051758.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051758.pdf
(8.11 MB) (8.11 MB)
Climate change is affecting the agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa and the impact is projected to increase in the future. To allow adaptation and mitigation of the impacts, we assessed the changes in climate and their impacts on hydrology and hydrological extremes in East Africa. We used outputs from seven CMIP-6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 1981–2010 is used as a reference period. The output from GCMs are statistically downscaled using the Bias Correction-Constructed Analogs with Quantile mapping reordering method to drive a high-resolution hydrological model. The Variable Infiltration Capacity and vector-based routing models are used to simulate runoff and streamflow across 68,300 river reaches in East Africa. The results show an increase in annual precipitation (up to 35%) in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya and a decrease (up to 4.5%) in Southern Tanzania in the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). During the long rainy season (March–May), precipitation is projected to be higher (up to 43%) than the reference period in Southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda but lower (up to -20%) in Tanzania. Large parts of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Southern Ethiopia show an increase in precipitation (up to 38%) during the short rainy season (October–December). Temperature and evapotranspiration will continue to increase in the future. Further, annual and seasonal streamflow and hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) are projected to increase in large parts of the region throughout the 21st century calling for site-specific adaptation.
4 Gashaw, T.; Worqlul, A. W.; Lakew, Haileyesus; Taye, Meron Teferi; Seid, Abdulkarim; Haileslassie, Amare. 2023. Evaluations of satellite/reanalysis rainfall and temperature products in the Bale Eco-Region (southern Ethiopia) to enhance the quality of input data for hydro-climate studies. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 31:100994. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2023.100994]
Rainfall ; Temperature ; Models ; Evaluation ; Satellite observation ; Hydroclimate ; Precipitation ; Agroecological zones ; Meteorological stations ; Estimation / Ethiopia / Bale Eco-Region
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051974)
(7.50 MB)
The sparse distribution and lack of meteorological stations due to deficit infrastructure in developing countries is one of the limiting factors for hydro-climate studies, and dependency on globally available data is often prone to various level of errors. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of satellite/reanalysis rainfall and temperature products in the Bale Eco-Region (BER) in Southern Ethiopia. This study evaluated performances of three rainfall products such as the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations, version 2.0 (CHIRPS v2.0), Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations, version 3.1 (TAMSAT v3.1) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation, version 2.8 (MSWEP v2.8). The two temperature products evaluated in this study are ERA5 and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA v2). Evaluations of these satellite/reanalysis rainfall and temperature products were undertaken against observed data (1995–2014) in temperate, sub-tropical and tropical agro-ecological zones (AEZs) across multiple temporal scales ranging from the daily to annual. For assessing the performances of satellite/reanalysis rainfall and temperature products, a point-pixel evaluation approach was undertaken using five continuous evaluation scores such as correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), percent bias (PBIAS) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE). Categorical sores such as Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and Frequency Bias Index (FBI) were also used for assessing the rainfall products. The findings revealed that MSWEP v2.8 has better performance than CHIRPS v2.0 and TAMSAT v3.1 in temperate and tropical AEZs at the daily, dry season and annual time steps as well as in sub-tropical AEZ in dry season and annual temporal periods, but MSWEP v2.8 displayed comparable performance with TAMSAT v3.1 in the daily time step. CHIRPS v2.0 exhibit superior performance in the monthly time scale in the three AEZs as well as in the wet season in temperate and tropical AEZs, but TAMSAT v3.1 has outperformed than CHIRPS v2.0 in the wet season in sub-tropical AEZ. The finding also indicated that the capability of MSWEP v2.8 to detect the rainy days (79–86%) and frequency of rainy days (0.99–1.79) is better than CHIRPS v2.0 and TAMSAT v3.1, but TAMSAT v3.1 has shown the best performance for identifying the non-rainy days (14–38%) than MSWEP v2.8 and CHIRPS v2.0. With regard to temperature, MERRA v2 outperformed over ERA5 in temperate and tropical AEZs for estimating both maximum and minimum temperatures from the daily to annual time scales, but ERA5 has shown superior performance than MERRA v2 in the sub-tropical AEZ. In view of the finding, we concluded that the best performing rainfall and temperature products for each AEZ can be used for data scarce regions such as the BER. The findings of this study provide important insights about the need to identify best performing rainfall and temperature products for different AEZs to enhance the quality of hydro-climate study outputs in the decision-making process.
5 Caretta, M. A.; Fanghella, V.; Rittelmeyer, P.; Srinivasan, J.; Panday, P. K.; Parajuli, J.; Priya, R.; Reddy, E. B. U. B.; Seigerman, C. K.; Mukherji, Aditi. 2023. Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes? A meta-review of existing evidence. Climatic Change, 176(8):100. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03573-6]
Migration ; Adaptation ; Strategies ; Freshwater ; Hydroclimate ; Climate change ; Labour mobility ; Vulnerability ; Weather hazards ; Risk reduction ; Households ; Case studies
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052096)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-023-03573-6.pdf?pdf=button
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052096.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052096.pdf
(0.97 MB) (989 KB)
Due to its potential geo-political and environmental implications, climate migration is an increasing concern to the international community. However, while there is considerable attention devoted to migration in response to sea-level rise, there is a limited understanding of human mobility due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. Hence, the aim of this paper is to examine the existing evidence on migration as an adaptation strategy due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. A meta-review of papers published between 2014 and 2019 yielded 67 publications, the majority of which focus on a handful of countries in the Global South. Droughts, floods, extreme heat, and changes in seasonal precipitation patterns were singled out as the most common hazards triggering migration. Importantly, most of the papers discuss mobility as part of a portfolio of responses. Motivations to migrate at the household level range from survival to searching for better economic opportunities. The outcomes of migration are mixed — spanning from higher incomes to difficulties in finding employment after moving and struggles with a higher cost of living. While remittances can be beneficial, migration does not always have a positive outcome for those who are left behind. Furthermore, this meta-review shows that migration, even when desired, is not an option for some of the most vulnerable households. These multifaceted results suggest that, while climate mobility is certainly happening due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes, studies reviewing it are limited and substantial gaps remain in terms of geographical coverage, implementation assessments, and outcomes evaluation. We argue that these gaps need to be filled to inform climate and migration policies that increasingly need to be intertwined rather than shaped in isolation from each other.
6 Sahana, V.; Mondal, A. 2023. Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 23(2):623-641. (Special issue: Drought vulnerability, Risk, and Impact Assessments: Bridging the Science-Policy Gap) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023]
Drought ; Weather hazards ; Vulnerability ; Indicators ; Risk assessment ; Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Projections ; Hydroclimate ; Water availability ; Groundwater ; Socioeconomic aspects / India
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052176)
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/23/623/2023/nhess-23-623-2023.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052176.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052176.pdf
(4.99 MB) (4.99 MB)
Changes in climate and socio-economic conditions pose a major threat to water security, particularly in the densely populated, agriculture-dependent and rapidly developing country of India. Therefore, for cogent mitigation and adaptation planning, it is important to assess the future evolution of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk. Earlier studies have demonstrated projected drought risk over India on the basis of frequency analysis and/or hazard assessment alone. This study investigates and evaluates the change in projected drought risk under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions by combining drought hazard and vulnerability projections at a country-wide scale. A multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) accounting for concurrent deficits in precipitation and soil moisture is chosen to quantify droughts. Drought vulnerability assessment is carried out combining exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators, using a robust multi-criteria decision-making method called the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the worst-case scenario for drought hazard (RCP2.6-Far future), there is a projected decrease in the area under high or very high drought hazard classes in the country by approximately 7 %. Further, the worst-case scenario for drought vulnerability (RCP6.0- SSP2-Near future) shows a 33 % rise in the areal extent of high or very high drought vulnerability classes. The western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and western Rajasthan regions are found to be high risk under all scenarios. Bivariate choropleth analysis shows that the projected drought risk is majorly driven by changes in drought vulnerability attributable to societal developments rather than changes in drought hazard resulting from climatic conditions. The present study can aid policy makers, administrators and drought managers in developing decision support systems for efficient drought management.
Powered by DB/Text WebPublisher, from
