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1 Tessema, K. B.; Haile, Alemseged Tamiru; Nakawuka, P. 2021. Vulnerability of community to climate stress: an indicator-based investigation of Upper Gana Watershed in Omo Gibe Basin in Ethiopia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 63:102426. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102426]

Climate change ; Vulnerability ; Rural communities ; Resilience ; Drought ; Rain ; Exposure ; Indicators ; Watersheds ; Water availability ; Runoff ; Water storage ; Social capital ; Livelihoods ; Households / Ethiopia / Omo Gibe Basin / Upper Gana Watershed

(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050724)

https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050724.pdf

(1.14 MB)

The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as heavy rainfall and droughts are expected to increase with climate change and are predicted to severely affect the agriculture sector. However, drought vulnerability of rural communities in sub-Saharan Africa is not well documented, despite these communities being composed of mainly smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on rainfed agriculture. In this study, we evaluated the vulnerability of a rural community in Ethiopia to drought using both primary and secondary data. The primary data was generated from a household survey, whereas the secondary data was obtained from the National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) product. We decomposed vulnerability in to three components which are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to drought based on indices derived from the primary and secondary data. Results show that the average score for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity is nearly equal. High seasonal water variability coupled with severe, frequent, and long drought status increases exposure to drought in the study area. The main factor which affects sensitivity to drought in this community is the land cover. For adaptive capacity, the social capital of the community is low while their physical capital is high. The overall estimated drought vulnerability shows that the community is moderately vulnerable. The community’s exposure and sensitivity analyses show the need to increase the amount of moisture stored within the soil with the adoption of appropriate soil and water conservation techniques. Results also show that the head of the household’s educational level, the number of livestock owned, and annual income affect the community’s adaptive capacity.

2 Alam, Mohammad F.; Villholth, Karen G.; Podgorski, J. 2021. Human arsenic exposure risk via crop consumption and global trade from groundwater-irrigated areas. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12):124013. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac34bb]

Arsenic ; Exposure ; Human health ; Health hazards ; Groundwater irrigation ; Irrigated sites ; Crop production ; Rice ; Wheat ; Maize ; International trade ; Datasets

(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050905)

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac34bb/pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050905.pdf

(13.00 MB) (13.0 MB)

While drinking water is known to create significant health risk in arsenic hazard areas, the role of exposure to arsenic through food intake is less well understood, including the impact of food trade. Using the best available datasets on crop production, irrigation, groundwater arsenic hazard, and international crop trade flows, we estimate that globally 17.2% of irrigated harvested area (or 45.2 million hectares) of 42 main crops are grown in arsenic hazard areas, contributing 19.7% of total irrigated crop production, or 418 million metric tons (MMT) per year of these crops by mass. Two-thirds of this area is dedicated to the major staple crops of rice, wheat, and maize (RWM) and produces 158 MMT per year of RWM, which is 8.0% of the total RWM production and 18% of irrigated production. More than 25% of RWM consumed in the South Asian countries of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, where both arsenic hazard and degree of groundwater irrigation are high, originate from arsenic hazard areas. Exposure to arsenic risk from crops also comes from international trade, with 10.6% of rice, 2.4% of wheat, and 4.1% of maize trade flows coming from production in hazard areas. Trade plays a critical role in redistributing risk, with the greatest exposure risk borne by countries with a high dependence on food imports, particularly in the Middle East and small island nations for which all arsenic risk in crops is imported. Intensifying climate variability and population growth may increase reliance on groundwater irrigation, including in arsenic hazard areas. Results show that RWM harvested area could increase by 54.1 million hectares (179% increase over current risk area), predominantly in South and Southeast Asia. This calls for the need to better understand the relative risk of arsenic exposure through food intake, considering the influence of growing trade and increased groundwater reliance for crop production.

3 Tomita, A.; Ncama, B. P.; Moodley, Y.; Davids, R.; Burns, J. K.; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe; Modi, A. T.; Slotow, R. 2022. Community disaster exposure and first onset of depression: a panel analysis of nationally representative South African data, 2008–2017. PLOS Climate, 1(4):e0000024. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000024]

Communities ; Exposure ; Disaster risk reduction ; Mental health ; Depression ; Socioeconomic aspects ; Models / Africa South of Sahara / South Africa

(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051086)

https://journals.plos.org/climate/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000024&type=printable
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051086.pdf

(0.89 MB) (914 KB)

Sub-Saharan Africa faces unprecedented disasters, with climate change expected to exacerbate the frequency and severity of unpredictable and stressful catastrophic events. Unlike developed nations, reconstruction in developing nations is hindered by resource constraints, with certain communities potentially experiencing multiple and enduring effects of disasters. Despite the potential danger of such cumulative community disaster exposure on mental health (e.g. depression), large-scale population-level evidence for the region is limited. We investigated the association between exposure to cumulative disaster and the first onset of depression in a nationally representative survey in South Africa. We used panel data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (SA-NIDS) from 2008–2017, consisting of 17,255 adult study participants who were depression free at baseline. Risk of first depression onset between individuals exposed and unexposed to community disaster was measured, accounting for multiple disaster exposure over time by fitting generalized estimating equation (GEE) regression models. Data on the geographic location of disasters were obtained from the South African government gazette, and mapped with the government delineated SA-NIDS households’ locations. Of the sampled individuals, 2,986 were exposed to disaster during the study duration (17.3%). Increased cumulative community disaster was significantly associated with the likelihood of depression onset (adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.20, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09–1.33), even after controlling for socio-demographic factors. In sub-group analyses, greater likelihood of depression onset was found among females [but not in men] (aRR = 1.23, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09–1.38), Black African [but not in other population group] (aRR = 1.21, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.09–1.36), lower education attainment group [but not in tertiary and above educational attainment group] (aRR = 1.20, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.08–1.33), and lower income attainment group [but not in the top income quartile group] (aRR = 1.24, p<0.01, 95% CI: 1.11–1.38), due to cumulative community disaster. Although cumulative community disaster exposure was significantly associated with the first onset of depression, its negative impact may be more pronounced among individuals considered chronically socially vulnerable (i.e. the groups above) in South Africa. Given that many individuals in South Africa rely on social, food parcel relief, and health services from government/public sector, timely access to community-based supportive intervention is needed for disaster survivors, prioritizing socially vulnerable groups to help mitigate problems associated with mental health challenges.