Your search found 47 records
1 Mekonen, A. A.; Berlie, A. B. 2021. Rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to climate variability and extremes: a livelihood zone-based approach in the northeastern highlands of Ethiopia. Ecological Processes, 10:55. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13717-021-00313-5]
Climate variability ; Climate change ; Households ; Livelihoods ; Vulnerability ; Extreme weather events ; Rural areas ; Highlands ; Land degradation ; Erodibility ; Land use ; Land cover ; Indicators ; Soil types ; Farmland ; Socioeconomic aspects / Ethiopia / Abay-Beshilo Basin / South Wollo / Oromia / Chefa Valley / Meher-Belg
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050684)
https://ecologicalprocesses.springeropen.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s13717-021-00313-5.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050684.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050684.pdf
(6.74 MB) (6.74 MB)
Background: The adverse effects of climate variability and extremes exert increasing pressure on rural farm households whose livelihoods are dependent on nature. However, integrated and area-specific vulnerability assessments in Ethiopia in general and the study area, in particular, are scarce and insufficient for policy implications. Therefore, this study aims to quantify, map, classify, and prioritize the level of vulnerability in terms of the components of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia. The study area is divided into six livelihood zones, namely, Abay-Beshilo Basin (ABB), South Wollo and Oromia eastern lowland sorghum and cattle (SWS), Chefa Valley (CHV), Meher-Belg, Belg, and Meher. A total of 361 sample households were selected using proportional probability sampling techniques. Survey questionnaire, key informant interview, and focus group discussions were used to collect the necessary data. Rainfall and temperature data were also used. Following the IPCC’s climate change vulnerability assessment approach, the climate vulnerability index (CVI) framework of Sullivan and Meigh’s model was used to assess the relative vulnerability of livelihoods of rural households. Twenty-four vulnerability indicators were identified for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components. In this regard, Iyengar and Sudarshan’s unequal weighting system was applied to assign a weight to indicators.
Results: The results revealed that Belg and Meher were found to be the highest exposure livelihood zones to vulnerability with an aggregated value of 0.71. Equally, SWS, ABB, Belg, and CHV livelihood zones showed moderate level of sensitivity to vulnerability with an aggregated value between 0.45 and 0.60. The study noted that livelihood zone of Belg (0.75) was found to be at high level of livelihood vulnerability. ABB (0.57) and CHV (0.45) were at a moderate level of livelihood vulnerability while Meher-Belg (0.22) was the least vulnerable livelihood zone due to a high level of adaptive capacity such as infrastructure, asset accumulation, and social networks.
Conclusion: It was identified that disparities of livelihood vulnerability levels of rural households were detected across the study livelihood zones due to differences in the interaction of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components. The highest levels of exposure and sensitivity combined with low level of adaptive capacity have increased households’ livelihood vulnerability. More importantly, the biophysical and socioeconomic sensitivity to livelihood vulnerability were exacerbated by slope/topography, soil erodibility, and population pressure. Therefore, designing livelihood zone-based identifiable adaptation strategies are essential to reduce the exposure and sensitivity of crop-livestock mixed agricultural systems to climate calamity.
Results: The results revealed that Belg and Meher were found to be the highest exposure livelihood zones to vulnerability with an aggregated value of 0.71. Equally, SWS, ABB, Belg, and CHV livelihood zones showed moderate level of sensitivity to vulnerability with an aggregated value between 0.45 and 0.60. The study noted that livelihood zone of Belg (0.75) was found to be at high level of livelihood vulnerability. ABB (0.57) and CHV (0.45) were at a moderate level of livelihood vulnerability while Meher-Belg (0.22) was the least vulnerable livelihood zone due to a high level of adaptive capacity such as infrastructure, asset accumulation, and social networks.
Conclusion: It was identified that disparities of livelihood vulnerability levels of rural households were detected across the study livelihood zones due to differences in the interaction of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components. The highest levels of exposure and sensitivity combined with low level of adaptive capacity have increased households’ livelihood vulnerability. More importantly, the biophysical and socioeconomic sensitivity to livelihood vulnerability were exacerbated by slope/topography, soil erodibility, and population pressure. Therefore, designing livelihood zone-based identifiable adaptation strategies are essential to reduce the exposure and sensitivity of crop-livestock mixed agricultural systems to climate calamity.
2 Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aheeyar, Mohamed; Chandrasekharan, Kiran; Ghosh, Surajit; Nakada, Toru. 2021. Adaptation to climate variability in Sri Lanka: a case study of the Huruluwewa Irrigation System in the Dry Zone. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 30p. (IWMI Working Paper 200) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5337/2021.229]
Climate variability ; Climate change adaptation ; Irrigation systems ; Arid zones ; Tank irrigation ; Irrigation canals ; Irrigation management ; Land use ; Cropping patterns ; Water supply ; Water depletion ; Crop production ; Water use efficiency ; Irrigation efficiency ; Water productivity ; Water availability ; Drought ; Rainfall patterns ; Risk ; Resilience ; Water scarcity ; Water management ; Reservoirs ; Water spreading ; Catchment areas ; Water storage ; Groundwater recharge ; Water accounting ; Water policies ; Seasonal cropping ; Diversification ; Crop water use ; Consumptive use ; Farmers ; Farm income ; Remote sensing ; Geographical information systems ; Case studies / Sri Lanka / India / North Central Province / Huruluwewa Irrigation System / Sina Irrigation System
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: IWMI Record No: H050737)
(7.75 MB)
This paper assesses how the Huruluwewa tank (HWT) irrigation system in the North Central Province of Sri Lanka adapts to climate variability. The lessons learned in the HWT will be helpful for many water-scarce irrigation systems in the country, which bear high climate risks. Recurrent droughts are the bane of agriculture in the Dry Zone, comprising three-fourths of the land area spread over the Northern, North Central and Eastern provinces. In the HWT, the fifteenth largest canal irrigation system in the country, adaptation to climate variability happens on several fronts: changes made by the irrigation management to the water release regime; changes in the cropping patterns practiced by farmers in the command area; and the use of groundwater, which is recharged from rainfall, reservoir storage and canal irrigation, as supplemental irrigation. Such adaptation measures ensure that the available water supply in the reservoir is adequate for 100% cropping intensity over two cropping seasons, even in drought years, and enhances economic water productivity in terms of value per unit of consumptive water use. Moreover, irrigation management should consider groundwater recharge through canal irrigation as a resource, which brings substantial agricultural and economic benefits not only for the command area but also outside the command area. The adaptation patterns implemented in HWT demonstrate how water-scarce irrigation systems can achieve higher economic water productivity, i.e., generate ‘more income per drop’ to enhance climate resilience for people in and outside the canal command areas.
3 Asprilla-Echeverria, J. 2021. The social drivers of cooperation in groundwater management and implications for sustainability. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 15:100668. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100668]
Groundwater management ; Cooperation ; Sustainability ; Social institutions ; Aquifers ; Groundwater extraction ; Resource depletion ; Water conservation ; Water scarcity ; Water users ; Natural resources ; Climate variability ; Climate change ; Infrastructure ; Wells ; Pumping ; Agreements ; Decision making ; Property rights
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050750)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352801X21001259/pdfft?md5=e1c69d55324d01b9679eb5d3cd8822e5&pid=1-s2.0-S2352801X21001259-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050750.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050750.pdf
(1.82 MB) (1.82 MB)
The present article develops a methodical literature review on the social and behavioral dimensions in common-pool resources (CPR) cooperation, especially in groundwater management. It is built upon the revision of ninety-five articles published in peer-reviewed journals related to water, collective goods, common-pool resources, and natural resources economics. The time span covers the published books and articles from 1964 until 2018 and makes special reference to Hume (1898) explanations on how complicated the maintenance of resources used in common is. If sustainability in CPR management programs is pursued, drivers for cooperation should be understood to make it manageable and operationalizable. Suggestions are made in terms of the classification of the drivers for cooperation, namely instruments, conditions, components/strategies, and assumptions. Apart from presenting the literature reviewed, the implications for CPR sustainability are discussed. Aquifers present different hydrogeological characteristics, subject to complex social extraction decisions and physical changing circumstances such as climate change and climate variability. Groundwater conservation and experimental settings should not only reflect the complex physical interrelated elements, but the complex social institutions and rules governing the extraction patterns.
4 Ghansah, B.; Foster, T.; Higginbottom, T. P.; Adhikari, R.; Zwart, Sander J. 2022. Monitoring spatial-temporal variations of surface areas of small reservoirs in Ghana’s Upper East Region using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and machine learning. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 125:103082. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2021.103082]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050847)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147470652100125X/pdfft?md5=59bd7a98182c33a44b62aaf447495217&pid=1-s2.0-S147470652100125X-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050847.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050847.pdf
(9.19 MB) (9.19 MB)
Small reservoirs are one of the most important sources of water for irrigation, domestic and livestock uses in the Upper East Region (UER) of Ghana. Despite various studies on small reservoirs in the region, information on their spatial-temporal variations is minimal. Therefore, this study performed a binary Random Forest classification on Sentinel-2 images for five consecutive dry seasons between 2015 and 2020. The small reservoirs were then categorized according to landscape positions (upstream, midstream, and downstream) using a flow accumulation process. The classification produced an average overall accuracy of 98% and a root mean square error of 0.087 ha. It also indicated that there are currently 384 small reservoirs in the UER (of surface area between 0.09 and 37 ha), with 20% of them newly constructed between the 2016-17 and 2019-20 seasons. The study revealed that upstream reservoirs have smaller sizes and are likely to dry out during the dry season while downstream reservoirs have larger sizes and retain substantial amounts of water even at the end of the dry season. The results further indicated that about 78% of small reservoirs will maintain an average of 54% of their water surface area by the end of the dry season. This indicates significant water availability which can be effectively utilized to expand dry season irrigation. Overall, we demonstrate that landscape positions have significant impact on the spatial-temporal variations of small reservoirs in the UER. The study also showed the effectiveness of remote sensing and machine learning algorithms as tools for monitoring small reservoirs.
5 Acharya, N.; Ehsan, M. A.; Admasu, A.; Teshome, A.; Hall, K. J. C. 2021. On the next generation (NextGen) seasonal prediction system to enhance climate services over Ethiopia. Climate Services, 24:100272. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100272]
Climate variability ; Forecasting ; Climate prediction ; Climatic data ; Decision making ; Precipitation ; Rain ; Sea surface temperature ; Observation ; Models ; Calibration / Ethiopia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050782)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880721000601/pdfft?md5=d689972c3a6ddd0a35de526dba6fa3c9&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880721000601-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050782.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050782.pdf
(4.35 MB) (4.35 MB)
In their recent seasonal forecast guidance, the World Meteorological Organization recommended using an objective seasonal forecast system that includes a traceable, reproducible, and well-documented set of steps. Such a forecast system is the backbone of any successful climate service, which should provide advanced warning to government, industry, and communities, and thereby help reduce the impacts of adverse climatic conditions. In this study, we present the Next Generation (NextGen) seasonal forecast system which was recently adopted by the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia. NextGen is based on a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) approach that uses state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble project. A canonical correlation analysis-based regression is used to calibrate the predictions from the GCMs against observations. The calibrated GCMs are then combined with equal weight to make final CMME predictions. A hindcast skill assessment of the CMME predictions has been depicted in this study for three rainy seasons in Ethiopia, namely Belg: Feb to May, Kiremt: Jun to Sep, and Bega: Oct to Jan. Over the region, the resulting forecasts are characterized by moderate skill at lead-1 for all three seasons. NextGen forecasting system shows that Bega rain-benefiting areas demonstrate the highest deterministic and probabilistic skill when compared to Kiremt and Belg rainy areas. The real-time experimental forecast of Kiremt2020 was conducted using NextGen by NMA and proved quite successful in capturing precipitation anomalies comparable to observations.
6 Gintamo, T. T.; Mengistu, H.; Kanyerere, T. 2021. GIS-based modelling of climate variability impacts on groundwater quality: Cape Flats Aquifer, Cape Town, South Africa. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 15:100663. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2021.100663]
Climate variability ; Geographical information systems ; Hydrological modelling ; Groundwater recharge ; Water quality ; Parameters ; Aquifers ; Climate change ; Vulnerability ; Water supply ; Water balance ; Runoff ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Salinity ; Evapotranspiration / South Africa / Cape Town / Cape Flats Aquifer
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050854)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352801X2100120X/pdfft?md5=5d9fdcf2defc38064e3037e32fff2ce3&pid=1-s2.0-S2352801X2100120X-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050854.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050854.pdf
(14.80 MB) (14.8 MB)
The need to improve groundwater security remains critical, especially in urban areas where demand for groundwater as an alternative source of water supply is increasing following unprecedented population growth. Climate change continues to threaten groundwater resources in such areas. This study assessed and analysed data from a variety of sources that required holistic analytical tools to demonstrate the impacts of climate change on groundwater quality at the local level. We evaluated how climate conditions affect groundwater quality using a hydrological model (WaterWorld model) in a GIS context. The Cape Flats Aquifer in the city of Cape Town in South Africa was chosen as a case study. The WaterWorld model was used to calculate hydrologic scenarios based on climate change factors and groundwater quality parameters for the period 1950–2000. Mean annual precipitation and temperature were simulated using the multi-model mean and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the years 2041–2060. Simulation results showed that annual precipitation will increase until 2041 and then decrease until 2060. A significant temperature increase of 1.9 °C–2.3 °C was predicted. Water balance simulations showed a decrease of about 8.6% per year under the future dry climate. ArcGIS 10.3 was used to combine geospatial data and develop a groundwater vulnerability map. Modelling analysis based on GIS showed that the southern and central suburbs of the study area are more susceptible to groundwater contamination and have high surface runoff and higher average temperatures. The groundwater vulnerability index and electrical conductivity concentrations showed a strong positive correlation when the model was validated using linear regression analysis (R2 = 0.99, P < 0.05). In this article, we recommend the use of the WaterWorld model in a GIS environment to simulate hydrologic scenarios on climate change and groundwater quality parameters to provide practical and feasible insights for actions to improve groundwater management.
7 Theokritoff, E.; D’haen, S. A. L. 2021. How is science making its way into national climate change adaptation policy? Insights from Burkina Faso. Climate and Development, 10p. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.2018985]
Climate change adaptation ; Policies ; Information ; Climate variability ; Vulnerability ; Forecasting ; Precipitation ; Rain ; Stakeholders ; Institutions / West Africa / Burkina Faso
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050858)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/17565529.2021.2018985
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050858.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050858.pdf
(1.22 MB) (1.22 MB)
Burkina Faso is highly vulnerable to the increasing impacts of climate change and currently has large adaptation deficits. To improve adaptation planning at the national level, policies must, among other things, be informed by the current observed state of the environment as well as the best available projections of future climate change impacts. Scientific information has gradually been making its way into policies since 2007 but barriers still hinder the climate science-adaptation policy interface. A systematic policy document analysis, semi-structured interviews and participant observations were undertaken to explore how scientific information makes its way into national adaptation policy documents from its production to its inclusion into policies. The results suggest that overall, national adaptation policies are only to a limited extent informed by scientific information, due to insufficient availability of information, limited human and technical capacity and lack of finance. This highlights the need to build up national technical capacities to produce the required scientific information, by inter alia prioritizing it within ministerial budgets, reducing the dependency on international technical and financial partners. Further policy recommendations include capacity building and continuous formal collaboration protocols between producers and users, to ensure that usable scientific information is structurally integrated into policy-making processes.
8 Nijhawan, A.; Howard, G. 2022. Associations between climate variables and water quality in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review. Water Research, 210:117996. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2021.117996]
Climate change ; Water quality ; Faecal pollution ; Contamination ; Cyanobacteria ; Saltwater intrusion ; Sea level ; Surface water ; Salinity ; Water treatment ; Drinking water ; Water supply ; Microbiological analysis ; Groundwater ; Climate variability ; Rain ; Temperature ; Modelling
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050871)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043135421011908/pdfft?md5=c6640779a907590ee48884a39d866745&pid=1-s2.0-S0043135421011908-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050871.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050871.pdf
(1.13 MB) (1.13 MB)
Understanding how climate change will affect water quality and therefore, health, is critical for building resilient water services in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where the effect of climate change will be felt most acutely. Evidence of the effect of climate variables such as temperate and rainfall on water quality can generate insights into the likely impact of future climate change. While the seasonal effects on water quality are known, and there is strong qualitative evidence that climate change will impact water quality, there are no reviews that synthesise quantitative evidence from LMICs on links between climate variables and water quality. We mapped the available evidence on a range of climate exposures and water quality outcomes and identified 98 peer-reviewed studies. This included observational studies on the impact of temperature and rainfall events (which may cause short-term changes in contaminant concentrations), and modelling studies on the long-term impacts of sea level rise. Evidence on links between antecedent rainfall and microbiological contamination of water supplies is strong and relatively evenly distributed geographically, but largely focused on faecal indicator bacteria and on untreated shallow groundwater sources of drinking water. The literature on climate effects on geogenic contaminants was sparse. There is substantial research on the links between water temperature and cyanobacteria blooms in surface waters, although most studies were from two countries and did not examine potential effects on water treatment. Similarly, studies modelling the impact of sea level rise on groundwater salinity, mostly from south-Asia and the Middle East, did not discuss challenges for drinking water supplies. We identified key future research priorities based on this review. These include: more studies on specific pathogens (including opportunistic pathogens) in water supplies and their relationships with climate variables; more studies that assess likely relationships between climate variables and water treatment processes; studies into the relationships between climate variables and geogenic contaminants, including risks from heavy metals released as glacier retreat; and, research into the impacts of wildfires on water quality in LMICs given the current dearth of studies but recognised importance.
9 Idrissou, M.; Diekkruger, B.; Tischbein, B.; Op de Hipt, F.; Naschen, K.; Pomeon, T.; Yira, Y.; Ibrahim, B. 2022. Modeling the impact of climate and land use/land cover change on water availability in an inland valley catchment in Burkina Faso. Hydrology, 9(1):12. (Special issue: Integrated Effect of Climate and Land Use on Hydrology and Soil Erosion) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010012]
Climate change ; Land use change ; Land cover change ; Water availability ; Catchment areas ; Hydrological modelling ; Forecasting ; Precipitation ; Climate variability ; Evapotranspiration ; Water balance ; Farmland ; Vegetation ; Impact assessment ; Uncertainty / West Africa / Burkina Faso / Bankandi-Loffing Catchment
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050874)
(4.07 MB) (4.07 MB)
Water scarcity for smallholder farming in West Africa has led to the shift of cultivation from uplands to inland valleys. This study investigates the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) change on water resources in an intensively instrumented inland valley catchment in Southwestern Burkina Faso. An ensemble of five regional climate models (RCMs) and two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was utilized to drive a physically-based hydrological model WaSiM after calibration and validation. The impact of climate change was quantified by comparing the projected period (2021–2050) and a reference period (1971–2000). The result showed a large uncertainty in the future change of runoff between the RCMs. Three models projected an increase in the total runoff from +12% to +95%, whereas two models predicted a decrease from -44% to -24%. Surface runoff was projected to show the highest relative change compared to the other runoff components. The projected LULC 2019, 2025, and 2030 were estimated based on historical LULC change (1990–2013) using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). A gradual conversion of savanna to cropland was shown, with annual rates rom 1 to 3.3%. WaSiM was used to simulate a gradual increase in runoff with time caused by this land use change. The combined climate and land use change was estimated using LULC-2013 in the reference period and LULC-2030 as future land use. The results suggest that land use change exacerbates the increase in total runoff. The increase in runoff was found to be +158% compared to the reference period but only +52% without land use change impacts. This stresses the fact that land use change impact is not negligible in this area, and climate change impact assessments without land use change analysis might be misleading. The results of this study can be used as input to water management models in order to derive strategies to cope with present and future water scarcities for smallholder farming in the investigated area.
10 Ho, T. D. N.; Kuwornu, J. K. M.; Tsusaka, T. W. 2022. Factors influencing smallholder rice farmers’ vulnerability to climate change and variability in the Mekong Delta Region of Vietnam. European Journal of Development Research, 34(1):272-302. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-021-00371-7]
Climate change ; Climate variability ; Rice ; Smallholders ; Farmers ; Vulnerability ; Livelihoods ; Natural disasters ; Rain ; Socioeconomic aspects ; Farm income ; Households ; Economic activities ; Social networks ; Deltas / Vietnam / Mekong Delta Region / Can Tho / Dong Thap / Tien Giang
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050878)
(1.37 MB)
This study analyzed the effects of climate change on rice farmers’ livelihoods vulnerability by using primary data elicited from 405 rice farming households in Can Tho, Dong Thap, and Tien Giang provinces in the Mekong Delta Region (MDR) of Vietnam. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) showed that Can Tho province was the most vulnerable to climate change, followed by Dong Thap and Tien Giang provinces. In particular, the social index sub-indicator showed high vulnerability. The beta regression analysis identified seventeen significant factors influencing the susceptibility of rice farming households in the study area, such as weather information, flood occurrence, drought occurrence, access to extension services, access to credit, and cooperative membership as well as demographic variables and livelihoods related factors. The LVI result suggests the need for the government to consider raising the priority on households in Can Tho province through adaptation support to improve the resilience and adaptive capacity, especially by enhancing the social network in this area to stimulate support from local authorities and farmer groups. The regression results imply that extension services should provide adequate and timely weather information to equip the farmers to be more prepared for climatic shocks. Moreover, credit facilities with low interest rates should be made available, especially to those who are members of agricultural cooperatives.
11 Aneseyee, A. B.; Soromessa, T.; Elias, E.; Noszczyk, T.; Feyisa, G. L. 2022. Evaluation of water provision ecosystem services associated with land use/cover and climate variability in the Winike Watershed, Omo Gibe Basin of Ethiopia. Environmental Management, 69(2):367-383. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-021-01573-9]
Water supply ; Ecosystem services ; Land use change ; Land cover change ; Climate variability ; Watersheds ; Water yield ; Hydropower ; Evapotranspiration ; Cultivated land ; Temperature ; Models / Ethiopia / Omo Gibe Basin / Winike Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050881)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00267-021-01573-9.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050881.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050881.pdf
(2.38 MB) (2.38 MB)
The provision of freshwater is essential for sustaining human life. Understanding the water provision modelling associated with the Land Use/Cover (LUC) change and climatic factors is vital for landscape water resource management. The Winike watershed is the largest tributary in the upper Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia. This research aims to analyze the spatial and temporal change in the water yield to investigate the water yield contribution from the watershed based on the variation in input parameters. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Tool (InVEST) water yield model was used to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of the water yield in different years (1988, 1998, 2008 and 2018). The data required for this model include LUC data from satellite images, reference evapotranspiration, root depth, plant available water, precipitation, season factor (Z), and a biophysical table. The analysis of LUC change shows a rapid conversion of grazing land, shrubland, and forest land into cultivated land. There has been a significant variation in water provision, which increased from 1.83 × 109 m3 in 1988 to 3.35 × 109 m3 in 2018. Sub-watersheds 31, 32, and 39 in the eastern part of the watershed contributed more water due to higher precipitation and lower reference evapotranspiration. The major increase in the contribution of water yield was in built-up land by 207.4%, followed by bare land, 148.54%, and forest land by 63%. Precipitation had a greater impact on water yield estimation compared with the other input parameters. Hence, this research helps decision-makers to make informed decisions regarding new policies for LUC change improvement to maintain the water resources in the Winike watershed.
12 Montanaro, G.; Nangia, V.; Gowda, P.; Mukhamedjanov, S.; Mukhamedjanov, A.; Haddad, M.; Yuldashev, Tulkun; Wu, W. 2021. Heat units-based potential yield assessment for cotton production in Uzbekistan. International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, 14(6):137-144. [doi: https://doi.org/10.25165/j.ijabe.20211406.4803]
Cotton ; Crop production ; Crop yield ; Yield gap ; Yield potential ; Assessment ; Heat units ; Climate variability ; Agriculture / Uzbekistan
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050907)
https://ijabe.org/index.php/ijabe/article/download/4803/pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050907.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050907.pdf
(0.77 MB) (792 KB)
Cotton yields in Uzbekistan are significantly lower than those in similar agro-climatic regions, requiring the estimation of crop potential and baseline yield to track progress of production enhancement efforts. The current study estimated potential cotton development and baseline yield (maximum given no production constraints) using total heat units (THU) and potential cotton yield (PCY), respectively. Calculations were based on heat units (HU) for a 30-year (1984-2013) period. Long-term average THU and PCY, as well as PCY at three different exceedance probabilities (p=0.99, p=0.80, and p=0.75), were calculated for 21 selected weather stations across cotton-growing areas of Uzbekistan. After confirmation that the current planting date (April 15) is optimal, a comparison of THU with the accepted cotton production cutoff threshold (1444°C) suggested that areas with lower elevations and latitudes are more appropriate for cotton production. Yield gap analysis (relative difference between long-term average PCY and actual yields) confirmed that Uzbekistan cotton production is below potential, while the spatial distribution of yield gaps outlined where efforts should be targeted. Areas near the stations of Nukus, Kungrad, Chimbay, and Syrdarya should be further investigated as benefit/cost ratio is highest in these areas. A comparison between state-set yield targets and PCY values, taking into account climatic variability, suggested that all areas except Jaslyk, Nurata, and Samarkand have safe, appropriate targets. These results present a starting-point to aid in strategic actions for Uzbekistan cotton production improvement.
13 Nyangoko, B. P.; Berg, H.; Mangora, M. M.; Shalli, M. S.; Gullstrom, M. 2022. Community perceptions of climate change and ecosystem-based adaptation in the mangrove ecosystem of the Rufiji Delta, Tanzania. Climate and Development, 14p. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2021.2022449]
Mangroves ; Climate change adaptation ; Ecosystem services ; Deltas ; Fisheries ; Local communities ; Strategies ; Climate variability ; Rain ; Sea level ; Livelihoods ; Villages / United Republic of Tanzania / Rufiji Delta / Kibiti District / Rufiji District
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050892)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/17565529.2021.2022449
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050892.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050892.pdf
(2.50 MB) (2.50 MB)
Mangroves are increasingly recognized for their role in supporting adaptation to climate change and variability. However, knowledge about how climate change and variability affect mangrove ecosystem services (MES) and their role in supporting coastal communities to adaption is limited in Tanzania. We used participatory rural appraisal methods and field observations to explore local communities' perceptions of climate change and variability, and ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies in the mangroves of the Rufiji Delta, Tanzania. Decrease in rainfall, increased temperatures, coastal flooding, and the incidence of sea level rise were identified as key variables associated with a changing climate in the delta. Perceived climatic stresses included damaged fish breeding sites, altered climate regulation and a decrease in coastal protection and flood control. Decline in crop, fish and honey production were perceived as the main impacts on community livelihoods, although there were significant differences across occupational groups. Dependence on MES in times of shocks, such as when agriculture production fails, switching of occupation, crop diversification, fishing in deep waters and migration to other areas provided potential adaptation options. Although the reported perceptions related to climate change or variability are not explicit, they both have negative consequences to mangrove dependent communities' livelihoods.
14 Warku, F.; Korme, T.; Wedajo, G. K.; Nedow, D. 2022. Impacts of land use/cover change and climate variability on groundwater recharge for Upper Gibe Watershed, Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management, 8(1):2. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-021-00588-8]
Groundwater recharge ; Land use change ; Land cover change ; Climate variability ; Watersheds ; Models ; Water balance ; Weather data ; Rain ; Precipitation ; Runoff ; Grasslands ; Evapotranspiration ; Vegetation ; Soil texture / Ethiopia / Upper Gibe Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050920)
(7.23 MB)
Understanding the response of groundwater recharge to land use/cover change and climate variability is important for water resource management and utilization. Thus, estimating spatially and temporally distributed groundwater recharge in response to land use/cover change and climate variability are important for groundwater resource management planning. In-situ groundwater recharge measurement is challenging and limited throughout the world. Hydrologic model-based groundwater estimation is an alternative and effective method compared to the in-situ measurement in data scarce basins. However, study related to the impacts of groundwater recharge in response to environmental changes is limited in many parts of the world including in Ethiopia. This study aimed to quantify the impact of land use/cover change and climate variability on annual groundwater recharge for the upper Gibe watershed using WetSpass model for the 1985–2018 periods. Time-series satellite imageries of 1985, and 2000 and 2018 were used for land use/cover mapping. Supervised classification techniques using maximum likelihood classification algorithm were used for the land use/cover mapping. In addition, post-classification algorithm was used for land use/cover change detection. Moreover, ASTER DEM with 30 m spatial resolution and climate dataset from 1985 to 2018 were used as an input for the WetSpass model. The climate data were divided into three phases namely 1985–1996, 1997–2007 and 2008–2018 for the impact assessment. The study results showed an increasing agricultural land and built-up area while declining forest, shrub, grassland and bare land during the last 30 years. Moreover, increasing temperature and declining rainfall were observed in the upper Gibe watershed during the same period. In response to these environmental changes, the annual groundwater recharge decreased from 350 mm during the first phase (i.e., 1985–1996) to 287 mm during second phase (i.e., 1997–2007) while it further declined to 221 mm during the third phase (i.e., 2008–2018) for the upper Gibe watershed. Furthermore, mean annual groundwater recharge declined by 7% from 1985 to 2018 for the upper Gibe watershed. The study indicated that WetSpass model performed well for simulating water balance and characterizing the effects of land use/cover changes and climate variability on the groundwater recharge for the upper Gibe watershed and other similar basin. This study provided baseline information for water resource experts and policymakers for further investigating the impacts of environmental changes on ground water resources and design sustainable environmental resource management and planning.
15 Kulkarni, M. A.; Duguay, C.; Ost, K. 2022. Charting the evidence for climate change impacts on the global spread of malaria and dengue and adaptive responses: a scoping review of reviews. Globalization and Health, 18:1. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-021-00793-2]
Climate change adaptation ; Malaria ; Dengue ; Disease transmission ; Public health ; Vector-borne diseases ; Climate variability ; Precipitation ; Models ; Early warning systems
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050929)
https://globalizationandhealth.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12992-021-00793-2.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050929.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050929.pdf
(1.16 MB) (1.16 MB)
Background: Climate change is expected to alter the global footprint of many infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue. Knowledge of the range and geographical context of expected climate change impacts on disease transmission and spread, combined with knowledge of effective adaptation strategies and responses, can help to identify gaps and best practices to mitigate future health impacts. To investigate the types of evidence for impacts of climate change on two major mosquito-borne diseases of global health importance, malaria and dengue, and to identify the range of relevant policy responses and adaptation strategies that have been devised, we performed a scoping review of published review literature. Three electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus and Epistemonikos) were systematically searched for relevant published reviews. Inclusion criteria were: reviews with a systematic search, from 2007 to 2020, in English or French, that addressed climate change impacts and/or adaptation strategies related to malaria and/or dengue. Data extracted included: characteristics of the article, type of review, disease(s) of focus, geographic focus, and nature of the evidence. The evidence was summarized to identify and compare regional evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation measures.
Results: A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control.
Conclusions: There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature.
Results: A total of 32 reviews met the inclusion criteria. Evidence for the impacts of climate change (including climate variability) on dengue was greatest in the Southeast Asian region, while evidence for the impacts of climate change on malaria was greatest in the African region, particularly in highland areas. Few reviews explicitly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies to address climate change-driven disease transmission, however suggested strategies included enhanced surveillance, early warning systems, predictive models and enhanced vector control.
Conclusions: There is strong evidence for the impacts of climate change, including climate variability, on the transmission and future spread of malaria and dengue, two of the most globally important vector-borne diseases. Further efforts are needed to develop multi-sectoral climate change adaptation strategies to enhance the capacity and resilience of health systems and communities, especially in regions with predicted climatic suitability for future emergence and re-emergence of malaria and dengue. This scoping review may serve as a useful precursor to inform future systematic reviews of the primary literature.
16 Terry, J. C. D.; O’Sullivan, J. D.; Rossberg, A. G. 2022. Synthesising the multiple impacts of climatic variability on community responses to climate change. Ecography, 15p. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06123]
Climate change ; Communities ; Climate variability ; Temporal variation ; Forecasting ; Environmental factors ; Extreme weather events ; Ecology ; Species ; Population growth ; Models
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050945)
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecog.06123
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050945.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050945.pdf
(2.37 MB) (2.37 MB)
Recent developments in understanding and predicting species responses to climate change have emphasised the importance of both environmental variability and consideration of the wider biotic community. However, to date, the interaction between the two has received less attention. Both theoretical and empirical results suggest that the combined effect of environmental variability and interspecific interactions can have strong impacts on existing range limits. Here we explore how competitive interactions and temporal variability can interact with the potential to strongly influence range shift dynamics. We highlight the need to understand these between-process interactions in order to predict how species will respond to global change. In particular, future research will need to move from evaluating possibilities to quantifying their impact. We emphasise the value and utility of empirically parameterised models to determine the direction and relative importance of these forces in natural systems.
17 Abdisa, T. B.; Diga, G. M.; Tolessa, A. R. 2022. Impact of climate variability on rain-fed maize and sorghum yield among smallholder farmers. Cogent Food and Agriculture, 8(1):2057656. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2022.2057656]
Climate variability ; Rainfed farming ; Maize ; Sorghum ; Crop yield ; Smallholders ; Farmers ; Crop production ; Temperature ; Models / Ethiopia / East Wollega Zone
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051044)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/23311932.2022.2057656
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051044.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051044.pdf
(4.57 MB) (4.57 MB)
Rain-fed food crop production is very sensitive to climate variability. The majority of Ethiopian population is reliant on rain-fed seasonal agriculture, which is the backbone of the country’s economy. The objective of the study was to investigate the impact of rainfall and temperature changes on maize and sorghum yields. The data were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope, correlation, and regression models. The study’s findings demonstrated that rainfall and temperature have different effects on maize and sorghum yields. The Mann-Kendall trend test has detected the presence of a significant increasing trend for both maize and sorghum yields. Though there was an upward trend, the result also suggests that maize and sorghum yields have been fluctuating more. There was a variation of 90% and 88% in maize and sorghum yield, respectively. The R-squared statistics indicated the variability of 25.21%, 1.12%, and 20.39% in maize yield was explained by its growing period rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature respectively. Growing period rainfall and minimum temperature were positively correlated with maize and sorghum yield output, while the maximum temperature was negatively correlated. A significant association has been detected between sorghum yield and its growing period rainfall and maximum temperature. The regression model revealed that rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperatures explained 46.81%, 5.08%, and 30.18% of the variation in sorghum production, respectively. Both crops showed unpredictability as a result of rainfall and temperature changes, emphasizing the necessity for irrigated agriculture, agricultural diversification, and livelihood diversification to respond to climate variability.
18 Clarkson, G.; Dorward, P.; Poskitt, S.; Stern, R. D.; Nyirongo, D.; Fara, K.; Gathenya, J. M.; Staub, C. G.; Trotman, A.; Nsengiyumva, G.; Torgbor, F.; Giraldo, D. 2022. Stimulating small-scale farmer innovation and adaptation with Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA): lessons from successful implementation in Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and South Asia. Climate Services, 26:100298. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100298]
Climate services ; Participatory approaches ; Smallholders ; Farmers ; Innovation ; Empowerment ; Climate variability ; Climate change ; Decision making ; Livelihoods ; Institutions ; Agricultural extension ; Farming systems ; Households ; Rain ; Food security ; Livestock ; Sustainability ; Case studies / Africa / Latin America / Caribbean / South Asia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051111)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000164/pdfft?md5=24758ca57f0beb4146e44b2c92352489&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880722000164-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051111.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051111.pdf
(2.83 MB) (2.83 MB)
How to cope with climate variability and adapt to climate change are key challenges for smallholder farmers globally. In low-income countries, farmers have typically received little, if any locally relevant weather or climate information. Although climate services have contributed to increased availability and accessibility of climate information, this has rarely achieved the desired impacts for farmers’ decision-making, adaptation and resilience to climate variability and change. This has been attributed to a lack of engagement with intended users of climate information and a top-down approach to development and delivery of climate services that fails to adequately consider and account for farmers’ context-specific requirements. Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture (PICSA) is an approach that was developed to support and empower farmers in their decision-making processes. More than 200,000 farmers have been trained in 23 countries and this paper presents evidence from evaluations in 7 countries including that most (87%; n = 4,299) have made beneficial changes in their crops, livestock and/or livelihood enterprises. The approach has strengthened key institutions that support farmers through deliberative scoping, tailoring, and capacity-building activities with extension and meteorological services. It has been well received by those that use it and is being integrated into policy and training curricula. Key reasons for the success of the approach include the importance of supporting farmers as decision makers and empowering them to relate relatively complex weather and climate information to their own contexts. Key considerations for the future include ensuring sustainability and further scaling as well as maintaining quality.
19 Kom, Z.; Nethengwe, N. S.; Mpandeli, N. S.; Chikoore, H. 2022. Determinants of small-scale farmers’ choice and adaptive strategies in response to climatic shocks in Vhembe District, South Africa. GeoJournal, 87(2):677-700. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-020-10272-7]
Climate change adaptation ; Small scale farming ; Farmers ; Strategies ; Climate variability ; Vulnerability ; Agricultural production ; Food insecurity ; Rain ; Gender ; Livelihoods ; Households ; Socioeconomic environment ; Models / South Africa / Limpopo / Vhembe / Levubu / Nwanedi / Tshiombo
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051070)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10708-020-10272-7.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051070.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051070.pdf
(0.59 MB) (604 KB)
Climate change is one of the multiple challenges facing all categories of farmers globally. However, African farmers are the most sensitive in respect of climate variability and change. Climate change impacted negatively on crop production and the livelihoods of the local farmers. In black township South Africa, agricultural activities are highly dominated by small-scale farmers, whose farming system is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper presents the analysis of how small-scale farmers employed adaptation strategies in response to climate change and determinants of small-scale households’ choices of coping and adaptation approach to climate variability and change in Vhembe District, South Africa. Multi nominal logit model was used on a surveyed of 224 local farmers. Farmers’ socio-economic attributes, was used in response to climate changes and further, households have adaptation strategies both on-farm and off-farm approach. Such approaches were; drought-tolerant seeds, shorter cycle crops, diversification of crops, changing planting dates, small-scale irrigation, migrating to urban areas and involvement in petty business. The results of the findings reveals that the significant drivers affecting choice of adaptation approach include climate information, gender, farm size, education level, farmer experience, decreasing rainfall and increases in temperature as farmers’ determinant choices of adaptation to climate change. While, on the other hand, off-farm resources, headed households and age had no significant impact on the choice of coping and adaptation approach to climate change. Therefore, policy makers in the local municipality should play a significant role by enhancing adaptation strategies appropriate for particular climatic shock on the study area.
20 Ayinu, Y. T.; Ayal, D. Y.; Zeleke, T. T.; Beketie, K. T. 2022. Impact of climate variability on household food security in Godere District, Gambella Region, Ethiopia. Climate Services, 27:100307. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100307]
Climate variability ; Household food security ; Climate change ; Risk ; Food insecurity ; Rainfed farming ; Socioeconomic environment ; Temperature ; Income ; Models / Ethiopia / Gambella / Godere
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051204)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000255/pdfft?md5=3d0917951ba0a6ab7338dff2eef16e0d&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880722000255-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051204.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051204.pdf
(6.24 MB) (6.24 MB)
Agriculture and food security are most vulnerable to climate variability and extremes. Climate variability and extremes increased the risks of food security in Gambella region. The study examines the impact of climate variability on household food security in Godere district, Ethiopia. In this research data were collected from different set of sources using various tools such as questionnaire survey, key informant interview, and focus group discussion. Meteorological data from Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency were also used. Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) was used to investigate the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall, whereas, household data were analysed using correlation, percentage, mean and binary logistic regression. Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) tool was used to determine household food security status. The result reveals that the study site has experienced spatio-temporal rainfall variability with various degrees and widespread household food insecurity. The result shows that 11.2% and 88.8% of the sample households were food secure and food insecure respectively. The HFIAS result shows the households’ food insecurity ranges from severe (17.2%) to moderate (19%) and mild (17.2%) levels. The study concludes unfavourable climatic conditions combined with the lack of necessary households’ resource endowments, adversely affects the household’s food security. We argue that ensuring the household's food security status requires attention towards mitigating climate shocks and improving households’ access to basic infrastructure services and facilities.
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