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(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049969)
(0.88 MB)
Sustainable transboundary water governance is often challenged by conflicts between agents, which necessitates the design of cooperative and self-enforcing alternatives to facilitate equitable water distribution. A pervasive and critical problem related to many transboundary rivers is that the total allocation or demand of riparian states is usually much more than that of the total available water. This problem is a major cause of disputes, both nationally and internationally. A key challenge concerns how to allocate the available water among riparian states with competing and often conflicting needs under an uncertain supply–demand gap. To address this pervasive allocation problem related to transboundary rivers, the bankruptcy method is used. The bankruptcy method distributes water among riparian states when their total demand exceeds the total available water. We investigate the utility of this method in the Indus River – a river that is shared among the four provinces of Pakistan, namely, Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) – using five commonly used bankruptcy rules and the Shapely value. Two new bankruptcy rules namely the “groundwater-based rule” and “the proposed rule” are also proposed to address the usage of groundwater: the land affected by salinity and the gross domestic product (GDP) of each province. Additionally, this paper introduces a new method to compare and contrast the bankruptcy rules, the Shapely value and the two proposed rules. The findings suggest that the groundwater-based rule has the lowest dispersion and is the preferred method for water allocation in the Indus River Basin. The use of the bankruptcy rules, the Shapely value and the two proposed methods has the potential to address the supply–demand mismatches of shared rivers. The proposed framework for selecting the best rule is recommended as an effective tool to facilitate negotiation over practical water allocation within transboundary river basins.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050031)
(0.27 MB)
Addressing water access, allocation, and use becomes a complex problem when it crosses multiple boundaries: political, jurisdictional, and societal, as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and physical. This paper focuses on transboundary water management (TWM) problems among the riparians with conflicting needs and competing demands. The complexity of TWM problems arises because of interdependencies among variables, processes, actors, and institutions operating at various scales. For such situations, the traditional notion of necessary and sufficient causal conditions is not adequate to resolve TWM problems. In essence, the resolution of many TWM issues becomes contingent upon the changes that occur within the context of the problem. A key for initiating and sustaining the resolution of complex TWM issues appears to be a set of enabling conditions, not any easily identifiable and replicable causal conditions or mechanisms. Thus, before analyzing and addressing contingent and situational factors important for any TWM issues, this paper argues for a reframing of these issues and examining the role and relevance of three enabling conditions. Using the inter-provincial water conflicts for the Indus basin within Pakistan as an illustrative case, it shows why over 30 years of dialog and discourse could not create any formal water allocation agreement. Then, it discusses how the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 created the enabling conditions to address inter-provincial water conflicts within Pakistan in an adaptive way.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050758)
(0.58 MB) (590 KB)
The Indus River System is a major source of life in Pakistan. A vast array of Pakistan's agricultural and domestic consumption needs are critically dependent on the Indus River System. The Indus River contributes towards 25% of the country's gross domestic product, providing water for almost 90% of the food production in Pakistan. Linked to the water security issues, Pakistan is potentially at risk of facing a severe food shortage in the near future. The World Bank report of 2020–2021 estimates that the water shortage will increase to 32% by 2025, which will result in a food shortage of almost 70 million tons. Water shortage could also result in confrontation between the provinces as river sharing has always been a source of problem for Pakistan. According to recent estimates, siltation and climate change will reduce the water storage capacity by 2025 to almost 30%. As for the per capita water storage capacity in Pakistan, it is about 150 m3, which is quite meagre in comparison with that in other countries. Irrigated agriculture will soon be adversely affected due to the reduced surface water supplies and the consequent increase in groundwater abstraction. To make matters worse, over the past decades, a great deal of distrust has developed among the provinces of Pakistan regarding the water distribution issue, and the successive federal governments have failed to formulate a cohesive inter-provincial National Water Policy. Along with the shortages and increasing demand for water, administrative corruption also plagues the water sector and is quite common. The beneficiaries of this water reallocation system are not only the rural elite, for example the large and politically influential landlords, but also the small and medium capitalist farmers. If not properly addressed, these complications of decreasing water resources could result in serious political and economic hostility among the provinces. If it wants to harness its potential to increase storage capacity, Pakistan must improve its water-use efficiency and manage its groundwater and surface water resources in a sustainable way. Strengthening the institutions and removing mistrust among the provinces are the key elements for maintaining a sustainable irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin.
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