Your search found 16 records
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049593)
(2.05 MB)
Increasing demands for energy to boost the Mekong economies have attracted the keen interest of riparian countries for hydropower development. This is evidenced by extensive investment in hydropower projects across the region over the last few decades. Drawing on interviews with key stakeholders, including officials from Ministry of Energy and Mines, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, private sector actors, civil society organisations and academics, as well as secondary data from public and policy resources, this paper aims to examine how the government of Laos’ (GoL) decisions in hydropower development are influenced by regional energy dynamics, and how these shape the country’s future energy development. The paper argues that the GoL’s decisions on hydropower development are highly dilemmatic, given the current limited institutional capacity in hydropower governance and the accelerating evolution of alternative energy in neighbouring countries. While uncertainty in power markets is recognised, this places greater pressure on new hydropower projects as to how much power could be sufficiently produced and exported. The paper calls for GoL’s policy considerations on the development and planning of alternative energy to secure the sustainable and equitable use of water resources as stipulated in the 1995 Mekong Agreement.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049691)
(0.56 MB) (576 KB)
The Ethiopian water policy strictly follows water allocation as a principle in setting out water consumption problems and demand projection. Hydroelectric power plants supply the larger share (88%) of the electricity in Ethiopia. 86% of Ethiopia’s plan to 2020 energy supply is expected to be from hydropower. This paper defines water consumption in hydropower production as the quantity of water that leaves the analyzed projects (reservoir regulated hydropower projects) through evaporation. Water consumed by hydropower development has never been studied at a country scale. Thus, in attempting to understand water consumption by the hydropower development, this study will be the first to acknowledge the water consumption by all storage regulated hydropower plants developed in Ethiopia. While studying and designing reservoir regulated hydropower production, the overall effect of water consumption by the projects is assumed to be minimal; thus ignoring water allocation to hydropower projects is a common procedure in Ethiopia. In this study, for multipurpose projects, to identify the water consumption by hydropower against the other purpose (irrigation) consumption, water consumption factors based on economic benefits were used. The study has shown that the 14 existing and under construction reservoir regulated hydropower projects will consume 1.881 billion m3 of water annually. This will make hydropower the second most water consuming water resource development next to Irrigation in the country. Together with the 22 upcoming projects the water consumption will be 3.756 billion m3/year. The results also show that hydropower consumption in the country will take an average of 2.41% of the total water stored in a reservoir. This value is in the range of nearly zero for power projects that use natural lakes as their reservoir (Tana Beles, Tis Abay I & II) and GERD to 10.64%. The total reservoir volume that will be created in the country after completion of the 22 planned projects is larger than 233 BCM, which is greater than the surface water volume the country possesses. This indicates that the future water consumption by hydropower plants shall be revised in accordance with changes made in the final design of each planned projects. Nonetheless, this research provides scientific support for the argument that the production of hydroelectricity by reservoir regulated hydropower schemes, in countries like Ethiopia, is a water consumer. Thus, water allocation shall not ignore its demand.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050238)
(6.67 MB) (6.67 MB)
Dam construction is mostly aimed for multiple functions, including irrigation water provision, hydropower, and some others that bring substantial social benefits. However, global warming impacts on the interaction of the positive outcomes of damming remain little known, particularly in terms of the sustainability of their co-benefits, whereby investigating the different impacts of global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2 °C has been a hotspot in water resources and energy research worldwide. This study used an integrative analysis based on a hydrological, techno-economic and agricultural modeling framework to evaluate the effects of global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2 °C on the co-benefits between hydropower and irrigation in the Mekong River basin. The results show the declined hydropower generation and irrigation water supply in the Mekong River basin under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios. The co-benefits between the hydropower and the irrigation is more undermined by the global warming of 2 °C relative to 1.5 °C in the Mekong River basin. Moreover, the changes of co-benefits are sensitive to the consideration of the protected areas in the basin. With the consideration of the protected areas, the co-benefits would be enhanced by 2 °C global warming compared to 1.5 °C global warming. Therefore, it is critical for decision-makers to consider the tradeoffs between the environment and dam construction for ensuring energy and food security under global warming scenarios.
4 Cullmann, J.; Dilley, M. (Ed.); Egerton, P.; Grasso, V. F. (Ed.); Honore, C.; Lucio, F.; Luterbacher, J.; Nullis, C.; Power, M.; Rea, A.; Repnik, M.; Stander, J.; Idle, T. (Ed.); Msemo, N. (Ed.); Baubion, N.; Roudier, P.; Woillez, M.- N.; Gomes, A. M.; Dobardzic, S.; Pina, C. L.; Naran, B.; Richmond, M.; Harding, J.; Macasil, M. L. K.; Chaponniere, E.; Hoyer, B.; Losenno, C.; Vaananen, E.; Baugh, C.; Prudhomme, C.; Brovko, E.; Giusti, S.; Hoogeveen, J.; Maher, S.; Neretin, L.; Pek, E.; Gutierrez, A.; Ramage, S.; Venturini, S.; Intsiful, J.; Barnwal, A.; Iqbal, F.; Aich, V.; Debevec, L.; Grey, S.; Sumner, T.; Marsden, K.; Katsanakis, R.; Sengupta, R.; Bensada, A.; Olhoff, A.; Ivanova, O.; Kappelle, M.; Nield, M.; Wang, Y.; Bertule, M.; Glennie, P.; Lloyd, G. J.; Benchwick, G.; Creitaru, L.; Larroquette, B.; Stephens, E.; Properzi, F.; Schade, M.; Bogdanova, A.- M.; Kull, D.; de France, J.; Aich, V.; Alexieva, A.; Bastani, H.; Berit, A.; Berod, D.; Bode, G.; Boscolo, R.; Chernov, I.; de Coning, E.; Eggleston, S.; Ehlert, K.; Delju, A.; Douris, J.; Gallo, I.; Kim, H.; Migraine, J.- B.; Msemo, N.; Polcher, J.; Sparrow, M.; Stefanski, R.; Tripathi, R.; Vara, R. L. S.; Woolnough, S.; Zuniga, J. A.; Christiana, P.; Luo, T.; Saccoccia, L. 2021. 2021 state of climate services: water. Geneva, Switzerland: WMO. 46p. (WMO No.1278)
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050659)
(4.62 MB) (4.62 MB)
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050861)
(1.11 MB) (1.11 MB)
Establishing cooperation in transboundary rivers is challenging especially with the weak or non-existent river basin institutions. A nexus-based approach is developed to explore cooperation opportunities in transboundary river basins while considering system operation and coordination under uncertain hydrologic river regimes. The proposed approach is applied to the Nile river basin with a special focus on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), assuming two possible governance positions: with or without cooperation. A cooperation mechanism is developed to allocate additional releases from the GERD when necessary, while a unilateral position assumes that the GERD is operated to maximize hydropower generation regardless of downstream users' needs. The GERD operation modes were analysed considering operation of downstream reservoirs and varying demands in Egypt. Results show that average basin-wide hydropower generation is likely to increase by about 547 GWh/year (1%) if cooperation is adopted when compared to the unilateral position. In Sudan, hydropower generation and water supply are expected to enhance in the unilateral position and would improve further with cooperation. Furthermore, elevated low flows by the GERD are likely to improve the WFE nexus outcomes in Egypt under full cooperation governance scenario with a small reduction in GERD hydropower generation (2,000 GWh/year (19%)).
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051064)
(7.53 MB) (7.53 MB)
The climate outlook for the 2019 southwest monsoon (SWM) season was prepared through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions and forecasts from different climate models from around the world during the fourteenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF14). Above-normal rainfall was predicted over Sri Lanka for SWM 2019, and information was shared at the monsoon forum. Even though SWM 2019 seasonal rainfall wasslightly above average, highly uneven rainfall distribution with a deficit of rainfall at the beginning and a surplus of rainfall during the latter part of the season was observed. Unusual dry conditioned prevailed during the month of May 2019, which led to delay the onset of SWM by 2 weeks. Due to the delay of onset and rainfall deficit during the early part of 2019 SWM, late cultivation of paddy was observed. Hydro-catchment areas recorded large shortfalls in early part Southwest Monsoon rainfall reducing hydropower generation to 15–18%, from May to July.
The suppressed phase of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) (phase 6 to 8) with anomalous easterly winds over Sri Lanka was evident from 04th May to 25th May. As MJO being a major predictive source in subseasonal timescale and Sri Lanka being a country located in the heart of the MJO envelope, integration of subseasonal information into seasonal outlook provide much greater value to decision-makers in Agriculture and Energy sector.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051322)
(1.53 MB) (1.53 MB)
Water, Energy and Food (WEF) are inextricably linked, and the Water-Energy-Food nexus (WEF nexus) provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the complex and intricate interconnections in the development of these invaluable resources. Quantifying the interconnections among energy, water, and food sectors is a preliminary step to integrated WEF systems modelling, which will further contribute to robust WEF security management. However, the use of the WEF nexus concepts and approaches to systematically evaluate WEF interlinkages and support the development of socially and politically relevant resource policies in Ghana has been limited. This study sets the pace in the development of WEF nexus research in Ghana to facilitate policy and decision-making in the WEF sectors in the country. The study aimed at quantifying the existing water trade-offs in the WEF nexus and also model the trade-offs considering basic development scenarios. The water intensities of food production and energy generation in Ghana were found to be 990 m3/tonne and 2.05 m3/kWh respectively. Scenario analysis was done to project future annual water requirements for food production, energy generation as well as socio-domestic WEF demands based on two possible development scenarios. The analysis predicts that with business as usual, the annual water requirements for food production and energy generation as well as domestic sustenance in Ghana would increase by 34% in 2030. However, technological advancements and innovation in the energy and food sectors could reduce annual water requirements by over 26% even when 100% access to electricity is achieved nationwide.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051375)
(4.52 MB)
Climate change (CC) poses a threat to renewable hydropower, which continues to play a significant role in energy generation in West Africa (WA). Thus, the assessment of the impacts of climate change and climate variability on hydropower generation is critical for dam management. This study develops a framework based on ensemble climate models and ensemble machine learning methods to assess the projected impacts of CC on inflow to the reservoir and hydropower generation at the Nangbeto Hydropower plant in WA. Inflow to reservoir and energy generation for the future (2020–2099) is modeled using climate models output data from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment to produce a publicly accessible hydropower dataset from 1980 to 2099. The bias-adjusted ensemble mean of eleven climate models for representative concentration pathways (RC4.5 and RCP8.5) are used. The added value of this approach is to use fewer input data (temperature and precipitation) while focusing on their lagged effect on inflow and energy. Generally, the model output strongly correlates with the observation (1986–2005) with a Pearson correlation of 0.86 for energy and 0.82 for inflow while the mean absolute error is 2.97% for energy and 9.73% for inflow. The results reveals that both inflow and energy simulated over the future periods (2020–2039, 2040–2059, 2060–2079, and 2080–2099) will decrease relative to the historical period (1986–2005) for both RCPs in the range of (2.5–20.5% and 1–8.5% for inflow and energy, respectively), at annual, monthly and seasonal time scales. Therefore, these results should be considered by decision-makers when assessing the best option for the energy mix development plan.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051684)
(1.62 MB)
The paper proposes a probabilistic approach to the assessment of the impacts of multipurpose dams. It is framed around the notion of Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) in the setting of the Water-Energy-Food nexus. The socio-ecological context of the Tana River Basin in Kenya and the construction of two multipurpose dams are used to highlight co-produced positive and negative NCP under alternative river regimes. These regimes produce both damaging floods that ought to be controlled and beneficial floods that ought to be allowed. But the river regime that results from hydropower generation and flood risk reduction may not be the one that is most conducive to food and feed-based NCP. The approach relates the economic value of river-based NCP coproduction to the probability of flooding to derive the expected annual value of NCP and a NCP value-probability curve. The relation between NCP flows and flood characteristics is tested and estimated based on regression analyses with historical data. Results indicate that the net economic value of key NCP associated with multipurpose dams for local people and associated social equity effects largely depend on the frequency of flood events and on the way impacts are distributed across communities, economic sectors and time.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051842)
(0.51 MB) (524 KB)
This paper investigates the collaborative and benefit-sharing approaches to conflict management in the management of cross-border water resources for the sustainable development of the Kabul River Basin riparian states of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The study offers an understanding of water management strategies concerning peace, progress and development, and sustainability. Using an interpretative social science approach, this paper investigates the impacts of water scarcity and stress, hydro-politics, water diplomacy, and water issues among co-riparian countries. It also investigates how cross-border river management impacts river water sustainability and sustainable cross-border water management strategies. The paper finds that the most significant factor in resolving and managing cross-border water disputes is to employ a collective and combined method of water management based on cooperation and benefit-sharing. This is in addition to providing an immediate cost-effective benefit of improving water supply, hydroelectric generation, and agricultural production, as well as future communal and monetary benefits for the public who reside and work the river basin. The paper proposes establishing a combined cross-border basin authority for both Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to effectively realize the benefits of the Kabul River Basin.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052185)
(7.71 MB) (7.71 MB)
Study region: The Brahmaputra River Basin.
Study focus: The Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB) is the most environmentally fragile and politically unstable transboundary river basin in South Asia. Therefore, incorporating the environmental sector into water-energy-food system analysis is necessary to better serve water resource management in the BRB. Integrated water resources system analysis can provide more perspectives for alleviating political tension and promoting cooperation in the basin. This study proposes a modeling framework to explore the water-energy-food-environment (WEFE) nexus and analyze transboundary cooperation opportunities in the BRB. Employing the framework, we attempt to answer three questions: (1) how can we understand the relationships between various sectors and coordinate their water demands? (2) How do these relationships influence riparian countries’ decisions? (3) What measures can promote the sustainable development of the BRB under climate change and water infrastructure development?
New hydrological insights for the region: The results show that the trade-off curve between economic benefits and environmental costs has declining marginal value in the BRB. When environmental constraints are raised, countries are more inclined to cooperate to obtain more economic benefits. Full cooperation in the BRB increases the economic benefits and prompts riparian countries to take a greener road among the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126). Water resource project construction can improve the utility of water resources in a country, thus enhancing its discourse power on benefit reallocation.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052538)
(1.28 MB) (1.28 MB)
The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a concept and approach to examine the interactions of water, energy, and food resources. Similarly, compound risks are a set of risk types that consider multiple connected factors that amplify risks. While both concepts are promoted as approaches to move beyond silos and address complex problems in environmental governance, there has been limited exploration of their overlap. Our study integrates these two approaches for more holistic assessment and management of resources in the context of climate risks. We examine the connections between the WEF nexus and compound risk in two ways. First, we review the literature to identify previous conceptual connections between the WEF nexus and compound risks. Second, we review seven case studies with WEF nexus interactions and compound risks to identify how the two approaches might be considered in practice. Our results demonstrate that there is limited, though not non-existent, integration of the two concepts in both the theoretical literature and in the case studies. The four of the seven cases that do show some level of connection in practice demonstrate opportunities for greater integration in the future, such as leveraging the water sector as a bridge to address WEF nexus and compound risk challenges together.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052712)
(11.60 MB) (11.6 MB)
Infrastructure in river basins is essential to achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 on zero hunger, SDG 6 on water and sanitation, and SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy. However, important tradeoffs and synergies need to be navigated across these goals as both water and resources for infrastructure investments are limited. In transboundary river basins, such tradeoffs can transcend countries, creating a complex, interconnected system of water-energy-food linkages. With increasing pressures on the Blue Nile’s water resources from population and economic growth and climate change, an analytical framework for joint planning of these essential human development goals at a fine temporal resolution and considering multi-national priorities can enhance the potential to achieve water, energy, and food security. In this study, we develop and apply a framework for water resources planning in the Blue Nile using four steps: (1) understanding the water-energy-food nexus management landscape through stakeholder engagement and literature review; (2) developing a detailed daily simulator that captures major nexus components and objectives at a fine temporal scale; (3) linking the simulator to an Artificial intelligence-based search algorithm to design efficient agricultural and dam operation portfolios considering national and sectoral priorities; and (4) presenting the results using interactive visualization tools to facilitate dialogue and support decisions. Our results identify efficient operation plans for large dams on the Blue Nile for alternative cropping patterns in expanded irrigation areas in Sudan that minimize tradeoffs across water, energy, and food objectives.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052760)
(1.41 MB) (1.41 MB)
Responding to Nepal's hydropower sector's vulnerability to climate change, this study investigates its impact on energy security, focusing on the Madi River Basin's river systems. This study conducted a rigorous analysis of the basin's historical and future hydroclimatic trends, using the linear scaling method to correct inherent biases in 13 GCMs, resulting in the selection of 6 BCMs with above-satisfactory performance. Future projections reveal an increase in annual precipitation with a higher increment in SSP585 by the end of the century, and a temperature rise ranging from 1.8 to 3.5 °C from the baseline in the far future under moderate- to high-emission scenarios. These hydroclimatic projections are then forced into the calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model with very good performance (both R2 and NSE greater than 0.8). The streamflow projection demonstrates an overall increasing trend, marked by significant flow reduction in early months and pronounced monsoon peaks. The analysis of three distinct hydropower projects reveals unique challenges and opportunities, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of projects and the need for location-specific planning and strategic management. This study provides crucial insights for sustainable development in renewable energy, laying the foundation for future research and policy in similar hydroclimatic settings.
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052857)
(18.20 MB)
This study investigates the impact of climate change and variability on reservoir inflow and hydropower generation at three key hydropower plants in Côte d'Ivoire including Buyo, Kossou, and Taboo. To simulate inflow to reservoir and energy generation, the Random Forest (RF), a machine-learning algorithm allowing fewer input variables was applied. In three-step, RF k-fold cross validation (with k = 5) was used; (i) 12 and 6 multiple lags of precipitation and temperature at monthly increments were used as predictors, respectively; (ii) the five most important variables were used in addition to the current month's precipitation and temperature; and (iii) a residual RF was built. The bias-adjusted ensemble mean of eleven climate models output of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment was used for the representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The model output was highly correlated with the observations, with Pearson correlations >0.90 for inflow and >0.85 for energy for the three hydropower plants. The temperature in the selected sub-catchments may increase significantly from 0.9 to 3 °C in the near (2040–2069) and from 1.7 to 4.2 °C in far (2070–2099) future periods relative to the reference period (1981–2010). A time series of precipitation showed a change in range -7 and 15 % in the near and -8 to 20 % in the far future and more years are with increasing change. Depending on the sub-catchment, the magnitude of temperature and precipitation changes will increase as greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)(greater in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5) rise. At all time scales (monthly, seasonal, and annual), the simulated inflow and energy changes were related to climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. At the annual time scale, the inflow is projected to change between -10 and 37 % and variability may depend on the reservoir. However, the energy change is promised to change between -10 and 25 %, -30 to 15 %, and 5–40 % relative to the historical (1981–2010) period for Taabo, Kossou, and Buyo dams, respectively at an annual scale. The changes may vary according to the year, the RCPs, and the dam. Consequently, decision-makers are recommended to take into consideration an energy mix plan to meet the energy demand in these seasons.
16 Akaffou, F. H.; Obahoundje, Salomon; Didi, S. R. M.; Koffi, B.; Coulibaly, W. B.; Habel, M.; Kadjo, M. M. F.; Kouassi, K. L.; Diedhiou, A. 2024. Analyzing inflow to Faye Reservoir sensitivity to climate change using CMIP6 and random forest algorithm. International Journal of River Basin Management, 21p. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2024.2354707]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052858)
(4.95 MB)
In the era of Climate Change and Climate Variability (CC and CV), renewable energy sources such as Hydropower (HP) have a significant role to play in mitigation. However, inflow to reservoir which is the key fuel for HP generation is vulnerable to CC and CV. Thus, there is a need to investigate the potential impacts of CC and CV on HP systems in the future. This study attempts to assess the potential impacts of CC and CV on the Faye reservoir inflow using the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. For this purpose, bias-adjusted precipitation and temperature data of thirteen climate model outputs and their ensemble mean from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used as predictors. The potential changes in reservoir inflows were evaluated in the near (2025–2049), mid (2050–2074) and far (2075–2099) futures relative to the reference period (1990–2014). The results show the good performance of the RF algorithm in simulating reservoir inflows with Cor > 0.6 for all models. The annual inflows to the Faye reservoir are noted to increase in the future compared to the reference period despite the potential decrease in future precipitation probably due to land use/cover change. For the ensemble mean of models, this projected increase is estimated to around 16%, 23% and 10%, respectively under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for all projection periods. The largest annual increase is noted under the SSP2-4.5 scenario while the lowest increase is noted under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for all projection periods. This study could help the small dam managers better consider the implications of CC and CV on inflow management.
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