Your search found 7 records
1 Rahman, K. S.; Islam, Z.; Navera, U. K.; Ludwig, F.. 2019. A critical review of the Ganges water sharing arrangement. Water Policy, 21(2):259-276. [doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wp.2019.164]
International waters ; River basins ; International agreements ; Treaties ; International cooperation ; Conflicts ; Water allocation ; Stream flow ; Trends ; Rain ; Forecasting ; Dry season ; Economic aspects / India / Bangladesh / Ganges Basin / Farakka Barrage / Hardinge Bridge
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049207)
https://iwaponline.com/wp/article-pdf/21/2/259/553585/021020259.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H049207.pdf
(0.64 MB) (652 KB)
The 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty was an important breakthrough in solving disputes over sharing Ganges water between India and Bangladesh. This study evaluates cooperation reflected in the Treaty by performing a quantitative analysis on available water sharing data. The study recognized that inaccurate projection of future flow and the obligation of allocating guaranteed 991 m3 /s flows perpetuate the ongoing water sharing conflicts. The provision of guaranteed minimal flow alternately to India and Bangladesh during critical periods leads to frequent occurrences of low-flow events. Results indicated that the Treaty underestimated the impact of climate variability and possibly increasing upstream water abstraction. Statistical analysis of the post-Treaty data (1997–2016) also indicated that 65% of the time Bangladesh did not receive its guaranteed share during critical dry periods with high water demand. It is advised to project the reliable water availability using a combination of modelling and improved observation of river flows. In addition, the condition of minimum guaranteed share should be removed to reduce the frequency of low-flow events in future. Although our analyses show a number of weaknesses, the Treaty could still enhance the future regional cooperation if some adjustments are made to the current terms and conditions.
2 Dahri, Z. H.; Ludwig, F.; Moors, E.; Ahmad, S.; Ahmad, B.; Ahmad, S.; Riaz, M.; Kabat, P. 2021. Climate change and hydrological regime of the high-altitude Indus Basin under extreme climate scenarios. Science of the Total Environment, 768:144467. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144467]
Climate change ; Hydrological regime ; Precipitation ; Air temperature ; River basins ; Hydrometeorology ; Flow discharge ; Forecasting ; Water availability ; Glaciers ; Snow ; Models ; Uncertainty / Pakistan / India / Afghanistan / Indus Basin / Kabul River / Jhelum River / Chenab River / Karakoram Region / Hindukush Region / Himalayan Region / Kharmong Region
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050278)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720379985/pdfft?md5=10d2860b7d17b30bdc1e6796a0020e92&pid=1-s2.0-S0048969720379985-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050278.pdf
(6.91 MB) (6.91 MB)
Climate change is recognized as one of the greatest challenges of 21st century. This study investigated climate and hydrological regimes of the high-altitude Indus basin for the historical period and extreme scenarios of future climate during 21st century. Improved datasets of precipitation and temperature were developed and forced to a fully-distributed physically-based energy-balance Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to simulate the water balance at regional and sub-basin scale. Relative to historical baseline, the results revealed highly contrasting signals of climate and hydrological regime changes. Against an increase of 0.6 °C during the last 40 years, the median annual air temperature is projected to increase further between 0.8 and 5.7 °C by the end of 21st century. Similarly, a decline of 11.9% in annual precipitation is recorded, but future projections are highly conflicting and spatially variable. The Karakoram region is anticipated to receive more precipitation, while SW-Hindukush and parts of W-Himalayan region may experience decline in precipitation. The Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate version-5 (MIROC5) generally shows increases, while Max Planck Institute Earth System Model at base resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) indicates decreases in precipitation and river inflows under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Indus-Tarbela inflows are more likely to increase compared to Kabul, Jhelum and Chenab river inflows. Substantial increase in the magnitudes of peak flows and one-month earlier attainment is projected for all river gauges. High flows are anticipated to increase under most scenarios, while low flows may decrease for MPI-ESM-LR in Jhelum, Chenab and Kabul river basins. Hence, hydrological extremes are likely to be intensified. Critical modifications in the strategies and action plans for hydropower generation, construction and operation of storage reservoirs, irrigation withdrawals, flood control and drought management will be required to optimally manage water resources in the basin.
3 Paparrizos, S.; Kumar, U.; Amjath-Babu, T. S.; Ludwig, F.. 2021. Are farmers willing to pay for participatory climate information services? Insights from a case study in peri-urban Khulna, Bangladesh. Climate Services, 23:100241. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100241]
Farmers ; Willingness to pay ; Climate change ; Information services ; Participatory approaches ; Peri-urban agriculture ; Smallholders ; Resilience ; Valuation ; Decision making ; Communities ; Agricultural extension ; Households ; Case studies / Bangladesh / Khulna
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050754)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880721000297/pdfft?md5=eef7e0da5266ec867be5028a1d33705d&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880721000297-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050754.pdf
(6.40 MB) (6.40 MB)
Among technological adaptation options, climate information services (CIS) offers high potential as a means to offset climate change impacts and build resilience in farming areas of developing countries. This study explores the potential of CIS, by investigating the case of participatory CIS development in the Lower Ganges Delta of Bangladesh. Specifically, we examined the value farmers attached to a co-developed CIS as decision support tool and the price farmers were willing to pay for CIS subscriptions. Based on a hypothetical market for CIS, we used contingent valuation with a double-bounded dichotomous choice format to determine farmers willingness to pay (WTP) for CIS. Two samples were included: an experiment group of farmers exposed to and trained in CIS use for farm decision-making and a control group of farmers without prior exposure to CIS. More than 90% of farmers in the experiment group expressed willingness to pay for CIS, compared to 75% of the control group. The annual subscription fees farmers were willing to pay ranged from 970.92 taka (US $11.45) to 1387.20 taka ($16.36). WTP was greater among farmers who had participated in CIS co-development. The main factors influencing farmers’ willingness to pay were CIS cost and prior exposure and training to CIS. Given that Bangladesh has more than 16.5 million farm households, these findings suggest huge market potential for CIS. Based on the high potential of participatory CIS, governmental institutions, the private sector and social entrepreneurs are called upon to develop CIS for smallholders, to unlock smallholders’ agriculture potential.
4 Droppers, B.; Supit, I.; Leemans, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Ludwig, F.. 2022. Limits to management adaptation for the Indus’ irrigated agriculture. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 321:108971. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108971]
Irrigated farming ; Climate change mitigation ; Sustainability ; Agricultural production ; Food security ; Water availability ; Groundwater depletion ; Water demand ; Water use ; Stream flow ; Precipitation ; Agricultural productivity ; Wheat ; Rice ; Models / Pakistan / Indus Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051109)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192322001617/pdfft?md5=3b54b600c5bce5926d91c12c42ab22ac&pid=1-s2.0-S0168192322001617-main.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051109.pdf
(2.19 MB) (2.19 MB)
Future irrigated agriculture will be strongly affected by climate change and agricultural management. However, the extent that agricultural management adaptation can counterbalance negative climate-change impacts and achieve sustainable agricultural production remains poorly quantified. Such quantification is especially important for the Indus basin, as irrigated agriculture is essential for its food security and will be highly affected by increasing temperatures and changing water availability. Our study quantified these effects for several climate-change mitigation scenarios and agricultural management-adaptation strategies using the state-of-the-art VIC-WOFOST hydrology–crop model. Our results show that by the 2030s, management adaptation through improved nutrient availability and constrained irrigation will be sufficient to achieve sustainable and increased agricultural production. However, by the 2080s agricultural productivity will strongly depend on worldwide climate-change mitigation efforts. Especially under limited climate-change mitigation, management adaptation will be insufficient to compensate the severe production losses due to heat stress. Our study clearly indicates the limits to management adaptation in the Indus basin, and only further adaptation or strong worldwide climate-change mitigation will secure the Indus’ food productivity.
5 Smolenaars, W. J.; Jamil, M. K.; Dhaubanjar, S.; Lutz, A. F.; Immerzeel, W.; Ludwig, F.; Biemans, H. 2023. Exploring the potential of agricultural system change as an integrated adaptation strategy for water and food security in the Indus Basin. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 36p. (Online first) [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03245-6]
Farming systems ; Strategies ; Food security ; Water security ; Water demand ; Population growth ; Climate change ; Sustainable Development Goals ; Policies ; Agricultural development ; Socioeconomic aspects ; Food production ; Drought stress ; Hydrological modelling ; Surface water ; Land use ; Water use / Pakistan / India / Indus Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051867)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10668-023-03245-6.pdf?pdf=button
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051867.pdf
(6.50 MB) (6.50 MB)
Water security and food security in the Indus basin are highly interlinked and subject to severe stresses. Irrigation water demands presently already exceed what the basin can sustainably provide, but per-capita food availability remains limited. Rapid population growth and climate change are projected to further intensify pressure on the interdependencies between water and food security. The agricultural system of the Indus basin must therefore change and adapt to be able to achieve the associated Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The development of robust policies to guide such changes requires a thorough understanding of the synergies and trade-offs that different strategies for agricultural development may have for water and food security. In this study, we defined three contrasting trajectories for agricultural system change based on a review of scientific literature on regional agricultural developments and a stakeholder consultation workshop. We assessed the consequences of these trajectories for water and food security with a spatially explicit modeling framework for two scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change over the period 1980–2080. Our results demonstrate that agricultural system changes can ensure per capita food production in the basin remains sufficient under population growth. However, such changes require additional irrigation water resources and may strongly aggravate water stress. Conversely, a shift to sustainable water management can reduce water stress but has the consequence that basin-level food self-sufficiency may not be feasible in future. This suggests that biophysical limits likely exist that prevent agricultural system changes to ensure both sufficient food production and improve water security in the Indus basin under strong population growth. Our study concludes that agricultural system changes are an important adaptation mechanism toward achieving water and food SDGs, but must be developed alongside other strategies that can mitigate its adverse trade-offs.
6 Attoh, Emmanuel M. N. A. N.; Afriyie, R.; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, G.; Bessah, E.; Ludwig, F.. 2024. Changing terrain: evidence of climate change impacts and adaptive responses of Dagbani Indigenous Communities, northern Ghana. In Reyes-García, V. (Ed.). Routledge handbook of climate change impacts on indigenous peoples and local communities. Abingdon, Oxon, UK: Routledge. pp.244-258. (Routledge Environment and Sustainability Handbooks) [doi: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003356837-19]
Climate change impacts ; Indigenous peoples ; Climate change adaptation ; Strategies ; Communities ; Households ; Temperatures ; Rainfall / Ghana / Kumbungu
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052570)
https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9781003356837-19/changing-terrain-emmanuel-attoh-ruddy-afriyie-gordana-kranjac-berisavljevic-enoch-bessah-fulco-ludwig
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052570.pdf
(0.90 MB) (916 KB)
This chapter presents observations of changes attributed to climate change and adaptation actions taken by Indigenous communities in Kumbungu – Northern Ghana. Using focus group discussions and simple random and convenience quota sampling techniques, 125 households and 175 individuals were interviewed. Results showed an increase in rainfall variability, frequency of heavy rainfall events, hot/warm days and average temperature; shortened growing season; increased frequency of crop pests and wildfire, and livestock mortality, all of which significantly affect households. To respond to climate impacts, respondents applied chemical fertilizers, changed crop varieties, planted trees, used sandbags against floods, used weather and seasonal forecast information, and engaged in off-farm activities. A key barrier to adaptation is the lack of financial resources. We recommend: (1) micro-credit schemes to support Indigenous people’s adaptation choices; (2) the provision of accurate weather and seasonal climate forecast information for actionable farming decision-making; and (3) the inclusion of Indigenous People’s in adaptation policy formulation, which might offer context, restore trust, and increase the useability of measures.
7 Smits, W. K.; Attoh, Emmanuel M. N. A. N.; Ludwig, F.. 2024. Flood risk assessment and adaptation under changing climate for the agricultural system in the Ghanaian White Volta Basin. Climatic Change, 177(3):39. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03694-6]
Climate change adaptation ; Flooding ; Disaster risk management ; Risk assessment ; Agriculture / Ghana / White Volta Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052693)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-024-03694-6.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H052693.pdf
(1.90 MB) (1.90 MB)
In the context of river basins, the threat of climate change has been extensively studied. However, many of these studies centred on hazard analysis while neglecting the need for comprehensive risk assessments that account for exposure and vulnerability. Hazard analysis alone is not adequate for making adaptive decisions. Thus, to effectively manage flood risk, it is essential to understand the elements that contribute to vulnerability and exposure in addition to hazard analysis. This study aims to assess flood risk (in space and time until the year 2100) for the agricultural system, in the White Volta Basin in northern Ghana. Employing the impact chain methodology, a mix of quantitative and qualitative data and techniques were used to assess hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Multi-model climate change data (RCP 8.5) from CORDEX and observation data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency were used for hazard analysis. Data on exposure, vulnerability, and adaptation were collected through structured interviews. Results indicate that flood hazard will increase by 79.1% with high spatial variability of wet periods but the flood risk of the catchment will increase by 19.3% by the end of the twenty-first century. The highest flood risk is found in the Upper East region, followed by North East, Northern, Savannah, and Upper West for all four analysed periods. Adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and exposure factors are driven by poverty, ineffective institutional governance, and a lack of livelihood alternatives. We conclude that the region is highly susceptible and vulnerable to floods, and that shifting from isolated hazard analysis to a comprehensive assessment that considers exposure and vulnerability reveals the underlying root causes of the risk. Also, the impact chain is useful in generating insight into flood risk for policymakers and researchers. We recommend the need to enhance local capacity and foster social transformation in the region.
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