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1 Gonzalez, J. M.; Matrosov, E. S.; Obuobie, E.; Mul, M.; Pettinotti, L.; Gebrechorkos, S. H.; Sheffield, J.; Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Dalton, J.; Smith, D. Mark; Harou, J. J. 2021. Quantifying cooperation benefits for new dams in transboundary water systems without formal operating rules. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9:596612. [doi: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.596612]

Dams ; International waters ; Water systems ; International cooperation ; Infrastructure ; River basins ; Reservoir operation ; Water policies ; Hydropower ; Ecosystem services ; Environmental flows ; Irrigation ; Simulation models / Ghana / Volta River Basin / Pwalugu Multipurpose Dam

(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050729)

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2021.596612/pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H050729.pdf

(9.16 MB) (9.16 MB)

New dams impact downstream ecosystems and water infrastructure; without cooperative and adaptive management, negative impacts can manifest. In large complex transboundary river basins without well codified operating rules and extensive historical data, it can be difficult to assess the benefits of cooperating, in particular in relation to new dams. This constitutes a barrier to harmonious development of river basins and could contribute to water conflict. This study proposes a generalised framework to assess the benefits of cooperation on the management of new dams in water resource systems that do not have formal sharing arrangements. Benefits are estimated via multi-criteria comparison of historical reservoir operations (usually relatively uncooperative) vs. adopting new cooperative rules which would achieve the best results for riparian countries as evaluated by a water resources simulator and its performance metrics. The approach is applied to the Pwalugu Multipurpose Dam (PMD), which is being built in Ghana in the Volta river basin. The PMD could impact downstream ecosystems and infrastructure in Ghana and could itself be impacted by how the existing upstream Bagre Dam is managed in Burkina Faso. Results show that with cooperation Ghana and Burkina Faso could both increase energy production although some ecosystem services loss would need to be mitigated. The study confirms that cooperative rules achieve higher overall benefits compared to seeking benefits only for individual dams or countries.

2 Gebrechorkos, S. H.; Taye, Meron Teferi; Birhanu, B.; Solomon, D.; Demissie, T. 2023. Future changes in climate and hydroclimate extremes in East Africa. Earth's Future, 11(2):e2022EF003011. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003011]

Climate change adaptation ; Hydroclimate ; Extreme weather events ; Forecasting ; Precipitation ; Temperature ; Drought ; Floods ; Rivers ; Stream flow ; Climate models ; Impact assessment ; Hydrological modelling / East Africa / Ethiopia / Kenya / United Republic of Tanzania / Uganda

(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H051758)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2022EF003011
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H051758.pdf

(8.11 MB) (8.11 MB)

Climate change is affecting the agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa and the impact is projected to increase in the future. To allow adaptation and mitigation of the impacts, we assessed the changes in climate and their impacts on hydrology and hydrological extremes in East Africa. We used outputs from seven CMIP-6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 1981–2010 is used as a reference period. The output from GCMs are statistically downscaled using the Bias Correction-Constructed Analogs with Quantile mapping reordering method to drive a high-resolution hydrological model. The Variable Infiltration Capacity and vector-based routing models are used to simulate runoff and streamflow across 68,300 river reaches in East Africa. The results show an increase in annual precipitation (up to 35%) in Ethiopia, Uganda, and Kenya and a decrease (up to 4.5%) in Southern Tanzania in the 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). During the long rainy season (March–May), precipitation is projected to be higher (up to 43%) than the reference period in Southern Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda but lower (up to -20%) in Tanzania. Large parts of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Southern Ethiopia show an increase in precipitation (up to 38%) during the short rainy season (October–December). Temperature and evapotranspiration will continue to increase in the future. Further, annual and seasonal streamflow and hydrological extremes (droughts and floods) are projected to increase in large parts of the region throughout the 21st century calling for site-specific adaptation.