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1 Gao, T.; Wang, X.; Wei, D.; Wang, T.; Liu, S.; Zhang, Y. 2021. Transboundary water scarcity under climate change. Journal of Hydrology, 598:126453. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126453]
Water scarcity ; International waters ; River basins ; Climate change ; Water resources ; Water supply ; Water demand ; Water stress ; Runoff ; Conflicts
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050565)
(7.12 MB)
Global transboundary river basins (TRBs) cover about 47% of land surface and 52% of population. Water scarcity is driving the potential risks as a result of competition for the limited water resources in TRBs, which turns to be both of an urgent environment issue and economic/political problems. In this study, we used a water supply-demand balance approach to estimate the impact of climate change on the water scarcity occurrence likelihood (WSOL) and water scarcity potential intensity (WSPI) in TRBs at a global scale. We projected the WSOL and WSPI by applying the global hydrological models (GHMs), which were driven by the bias-corrected data of four general circulation models (GCMs) considering different scenarios of the representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0), respectively. The results indicated that the WSOL in TRBs were expected to increase between 28% (at RCP2.6) and 42% (at RCP6.0) by 2080s in comparison with those during 1981–2010. The most significant increase of WSOL were found in the countries of West Asia as well as China and North Africa. We also found that the projection of WSPI showed less consistent trends across different basins in TRBs, with variations in a range from -10% to 5% by 2080s. In general, WSPI increased in West Asia but decreased in north Asia, Europe and North America. The results highlighted that the water scarcity in TRBs would be exacerbated by climate warming, likely overwhelming the efforts of nations to collaboratively use freshwater resources of TRBs in future, and potentially preceding more water conflicts.
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