Your search found 3 records
1 Brouziyne, Y.; Abouabdillah, A.; Chehbouni, A.; Hanich, L.; Bergaoui, Karim; McDonnell, Rachael; Benaabidate, L. 2020. Assessing hydrological vulnerability to future droughts in a Mediterranean watershed: combined indices-based and distributed modeling approaches. Water, 12(9):2333. (Special issue: Modeling Global Change Impacts on Water Resources: Selected Papers from the 2019/2020 SWAT International Conferences) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092333]
Climate change ; Drought ; Vulnerability ; Hydrological factors ; Weather forecasting ; Modelling ; Water resources ; Watersheds ; Water yield ; Meteorological factors ; Risk management ; Precipitation ; Rain ; Temperature ; Land use ; Runoff ; Evapotranspiration / Mediterranean Region / Morocco / Bouregreg Watershed
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049879)
(6.58 MB) (6.58 MB)
Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of future droughts is essential for effective water resource management, especially in the Mediterranean region where water resources are expected to be scarcer in the future. In this study, we combined meteorological and hydrological drought indices with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict future dry years during two periods (2035–2050and 2085–2100) in a typical Mediterranean watershed in Northern Morocco, namely, Bouregreg watershed. The developed methodology was then used to evaluate drought impact on annual water yields and to identify the most vulnerable sub-basins within the study watershed. Two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of a downscaled global circulation model were used to force the calibrated SWAT model. Results indicated that Bouregreg watershed will experience several dry years with higher frequency especially at the end of current century. Significant decreases of annual water yields were simulated during dry years, ranging from -45.6% to -76.7% under RCP4.5, and from -66.7% to -95.6% under RCP8.5, compared to baseline. Overall, hydrologic systems in sub-basins under the ocean or high-altitude influence appear to be more resilient to drought. The combination of drought indices and the semi-distributed model offer a comprehensive tool to understand potential future droughts in Bouregreg watershed.
2 Bergaoui, Karim; Belhaj Fraj, Makram; Fragaszy, Stephen; Ghanim, A.; Hamadin, O.; Al-Karablieh, E.; Fakih, M.; Salama, S.; Fayad, A.; Yessef, M.; Belghrissi, H.; Hassels, T.; Ali, Marwa; Badr, H.; Hazra, A.; Nie, W.; Arsenault, K.; Hayes, M.; Svoboda, M.; McDonnell, Rachael. 2022. MENAdrought synthesis of drought monitoring, early warning, and seasonal forecasting tools and capability development: final report. Project report prepared by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) for the Bureau for the Middle East of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). Washington, DC, USA: USAID; Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 74p. [doi: https://doi.org/10.5337/2023.202]
Drought ; Monitoring ; Early warning systems ; Forecasting ; Decision support ; Vulnerability ; Impact assessment ; Indicators ; Policies ; Water security ; Food security ; Water scarcity ; Disaster preparedness ; Precipitation ; Stream flow ; Modelling ; Collaboration ; Research for development ; Technology transfer ; Stakeholders ; Training / Middle East / North Africa / Jordan / Lebanon / Morocco
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052340)
(1.48 MB)
3 Bergaoui, Karim; Belhaj Fraj, Makram; Fragaszy, Stephen; Ghanim, A.; Hamadin, O.; Al-Karablieh, E.; Al-Bakri, J.; Fakih, M.; Fayad, A.; Comair, F.; Yessef, M.; Mansour, H. B.; Belgrissi, H.; Arsenault, K.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kumar, S.; Hazra, A.; Nie, W.; Hayes, M.; Svoboda, M.; McDonnell, Rachael. 2024. Development of a composite drought indicator for operational drought monitoring in the MENA Region. Scientific Reports, 14:5414. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55626-0]
Drought ; Indicators ; Monitoring ; Precipitation ; Soil moisture ; Decision making ; Policies / Middle East / North Africa / Jordan / Lebanon / Morocco / Tunisia
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H052703)
(2.06 MB) (2.06 MB)
This paper presents the composite drought indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian government agencies now produce monthly to support operational drought management decision making, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, engagements with policymakers, and consideration of agencies’ technical and institutional capabilities and constraints, we made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration to tailor the system for each national context. We summarize validation results, drought modelling challenges and how we overcame them through CDI improvements, and we describe the monthly CDI production process and outputs. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development and reflect on the constraints we faced as well as trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring to support policy decision-making—including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy—within each national context.
Powered by DB/Text WebPublisher, from
