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1 Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Smakhtin, Vladimir. 2014. Global water demand projections: past, present and future. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute (IWMI). 32p. (IWMI Research Report 156) [doi: https://doi.org/10.5337/2014.212]
Water demand ; Forecasting ; Water resources ; Planning ; Domestic water ; Secondary sector ; Agricultural sector ; Irrigation efficiency ; Water use ; Economic growth ; Income
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: IWMI Record No: H046577)
(2.55 MB)
A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.
2 Wada, Y.; Florke, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Eisner, S.; Fischer, G.; Tramberend, S.; Satoh, Y.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Yillia, P.; Ringler, C.; Burek, P.; Wiberg, D. 2016. Modeling global water use for the 21st century: the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative and its approaches. Geoscientific Model Development, 9:175-222.
Water use ; Water demand ; Water availability ; Water scarcity ; Food production ; Models ; Socioeconomic environment ; Agriculture ; Livestock ; Irrigation water ; Domestic water ; Irrigated land ; Energy generation ; Electricity generation ; Environmental flows ; Secondary sector
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H047861)
http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/9/175/2016/gmd-9-175-2016.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H047861.pdf
https://vlibrary.iwmi.org/pdf/H047861.pdf
To sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, global water use increased by nearly 6 times during the last 100 years, and continues to grow. As water demands get closer and closer to the water availability in many regions, each drop of water becomes increasingly valuable and water must be managed more efficiently and intensively. However, soaring water use worsens water scarcity conditions already prevalent in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing uncertainty for sustainable food production and economic development. Planning for future development and investments requires that we prepare water projections for the future. However, estimations are complicated because the future of the world's waters will be influenced by a combination of environmental, social, economic, and political factors, and there is only limited knowledge and data available about freshwater resources and how they are being used. The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative coordinates its work with other ongoing scenario efforts for the sake of establishing a consistent set of new global water scenarios based on the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The WFaS "fast-track" assessment uses three global water models, namely H08, PCR-GLOBWB, and WaterGAP. This study assesses the state of the art for estimating and projecting water use regionally and globally in a consistent manner. It provides an overview of different approaches, the uncertainty, strengths and weaknesses of the various estimation methods, types of management and policy decisions for which the current estimation methods are useful. We also discuss additional information most needed to be able to improve water use estimates and be able to assess a greater range of management options across the water–energy–climate nexus.
3 Zhang, L.; Zhang, X.; Wu, F.; Pang, Q. 2020. Basin initial water rights allocation under multiple uncertainties: a trade-off analysis. Water Resources Management, 34(3):955-988. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02453-y]
Water rights ; Water allocation ; Water availability ; Water demand ; Water supply ; Uncertainty ; Conflicts ; Equity ; Socioeconomic development ; Secondary sector ; Risks ; Models ; Case studies / China / Taihu Basin
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H049633)
(7.45 MB)
Economic losses and inequities caused by uncertainties in the availability of water intensify the competition between water sectors, making the allocation of water rights of vital importance for minimizing water conflicts. In this study, an Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Programming (ITSP) model for water rights allocation is developed that contains an industrial allocation preference coefficient and involves the risk control of Conditional Value-at-Risk theory and Gini coefficient constraints (ITSP-CG). Using China’s Taihu Basin as a case study, it is shown that optimized water rights allocation schemes can reduce the risk of inequitable localized water deficits, a narrower confidence interval results in higher economic loss, and, when the confidence level is fixed, tighter control of water availability results in water efficient sectors having an increasing preference for allocation schemes. It is also shown that Basin Authorities need to trade-off the equitable allocation of water rights and economic returns over a particular planning period.
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