Your search found 2 records
1 Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rotter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, Pramod Kumar; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A-K.; Muller, C.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Rezaei, E. E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stockle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. 2015. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change, 5:143-147. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470]
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H046906)
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
2 Thiery, W.; Lange, S.; Rogelj, J.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Andrijevic, M.; Frieler, K.; Emanuel, K.; Geiger, T.; Bresch, D. N.; Zhao, F.; Willner, S. N.; Buchner, M.; Volkholz, J.; Bauer, N.; Chang, J.; Ciais, P.; Dury, M.; Francois, L.; Grillakis, M.; Gosling, S. N.; Hanasaki, N.; Hickler, T.; Huber, V.; Ito, A.; Jagermeyr, J.; Khabarov, N.; Koutroulis, A.; Liu, W.; Lutz, W.; Mengel, M.; Muller, C.; Ostberg, S.; Reyer, C. P. O.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y. 2021. Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 374(6564):158-160. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abi7339]
Extreme weather events ; Climate change ; Global warming ; Drought ; Flooding ; Cyclones ; Wildfires ; Crop losses ; Forecasting ; Vulnerability ; Emission reduction ; Models
(Location: IWMI HQ Call no: e-copy only Record No: H050714)
(1.12 MB)
Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades (1–4). Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations (5, 6) that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming (7), a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future.
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